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A presentation as part of the 50th Anniversary of the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium in New York City.

Congratulations to Andrew Thrasher, CMT, for His Award-Winning Research
The 5% Canary

Methodology: To examine the potential predictive value of the time it takes for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to decline by 5% from a 52-week high, a study of their respective price histories from 1950 to 2021 was conducted. The study focused on the number of trading days it took for the indices to decline by 5%, and how that time period correlated with subsequent price movements. The study also looked at instances where the initial 5% decline occurred over a protracted period of time, and how those instances were followed by bullish opportunities. Implications of a 5% Decline: The study found that when the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 5% within a short period of time (less than 20 trading days), there was a higher likelihood of further downside momentum. In these instances, investors may consider reducing their equity exposure or implementing risk management protocols to protect their portfolios. Bullish

Opportunities: However, the study also found that when the initial 5% decline occurred over a protracted period of time (more than 50 trading days), there was a higher likelihood of a bullish opportunity. In these instances, investors may consider adding to their equity exposure or implementing a buy protocol to capture potential upside. Conclusion: The time it takes for the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average to decline by 5% from a 52-week high has significant implications for investors. The speed at which the decline occurs can help investors identify both downside mitigation as well as upside capture potential.

Memorial Awards 


Steve Leuthold

In honor of his long service to the profession of technical analysis in general and to the CMT Association in particular, we honor the memory of Steven Carl Leuthold. As a member of our community, he was honored with the 1999 Charles H. Dow Award, and in 2012 received the CMT Annual Award for his lifetime achievements to the field.

Steven Carl Leuthold, Age 85, a dynamic and respected CMT Association Member with over 50 years of service to the investment industry, passed away peacefully at his home in Carlsbad, California, on March 7, 2023.

Steve became a nationally respected investment strategist, known for his contrarian nature and unpretentious style, which was poles apart from his manicured peers on Wall Street who donned three-piece suits and flashy accessories. He explored a variety of prospects before carving out his niche on (off) Wall Street.

He first worked as a commodities trainee at Cargill, an investment analyst at Paine Webber, an investment strategist at Piper, Jaffray, & Hopwood, and a portfolio manager at Criterion Investment Management. In 1981 Steve founded The Leuthold Group, an institutional investment research firm. The Leuthold Group flourished and eventually expanded into mutual funds. He became a leading national expert in the investment field. He made numerous appearances on broadcast media financial programs and regularly spoke at investment conferences nationwide. He frequently contributed to The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Newsweek, and Business Week. He was known for his often contrarian views. Steve enjoyed running against the grain and not running with the herd.

Steve funded and founded The Steven C. Leuthold Family Foundation. The Leuthold Family Foundation supports various non-profits, including conservation, animal welfare, historic preservation, and human services. Steve launched his investment career in Minneapolis and had four children with his first wife, Sharon Robinson. He then spent over thirty summers living on Bailey Island in Maine, his favorite place in the World. He loved being on the Maine coast growing potatoes and befriending the local lobstermen.

Steve always lived life to the fullest and loved to have fun, play music, drink beer, and live life. He was quick to laugh and to find humor in both work and play. He loved to play guitar and sing classic country songs, as well as his own. His professional colleagues and co-workers became his esteemed friends. He loved his children, and time together was important. He loved his wife, Jeannette, and their two cats. He was a committed philanthropist, often giving anonymously yet living modestly. Steve was an inspiration to everyone who knew him. He will be missed by many. REGIME SHIFT: The Evolution of Technical Analysis | NYC April 26-28 Steve’s viewpoint on investing, which he also embodied in his personal life, can be summed up in his quote, “I am contrary but not for the sake of being contrary. It’s good business. When everybody hates something, we buy it. When everybody loves something, we sell it. There is a warm comfort in being part of the herd. But I can live without it.”

Larry Laterza

Lawrence “Larry” Laterza of River Edge, NJ passed away at age 74 on Sunday, May 1st, 2022. He was born on March 31, 1948, in Astoria, Queens, New York to Lorenzo and Rose Laterza. He attended Brooklyn Tech High School and then graduated from St. John’s University in Queens. Lawrence had a successful career on Wall Street where he worked as a broker for Merrill Lynch and then Prudential Bache, specializing in the commodities and equity markets. He was an adjunct professor at Rutgers University (Newark, NJ) where he taught graduate classes in technical analysis and commodities markets. He also taught at Baruch College in Manhattan. He enjoyed volunteering for the community theater and was an active and faithful member of St. Peter the Apostle R.C. Church in River Edge, NJ.