All too often a Technician’s first foray into being quantitative is performing a back test. Statistically, this is one of the worst places to start a quantitative process. A back test that is performed too early is based on many false assumptions and compounds many errors into the process. The result is that the back test returns are rarely repeatable in real life. In this presentation, Mathew will be explaining what these errors are, how we can avoid them (regardless of what tools you use), and reveal a new Monte Carlo method he developed which allows us to review a valid p-score for our models no matter if they are long term trend following or short term mean reversion strategies. Mathew will go on to explain how as Technicians there is a process that we can follow to rigorously test quantitative ideas.
For any Analyst who wants to research new ideas, or be able to present ideas that can stand up to rigorous quantitative scrutiny, this presentation will help you to see that not only is a quantitative approach is achievable, but as Technical Analysts, we are in the best position to drive advanced quantitative models.