Charles H. Dow Award

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 260 submissions, and recognized 27 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions to the Charles H. Dow Award. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium held in New York City each April.

The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding of market action, the concepts of technical analysis, and thorough research. Additional information on the Standards of Judgment, included within the Guidelines for Submissions. For more information on the Charles H. Dow Award, please contact DowAward@cmtassociation.org. Submissions for the 2025 Dow Award will open on July 1st, 2024 and remain open until December 1st, 2024; however, we accept research for publication in the Journal of Technical Analysis on a rolling basis year-round

Guidelines for SubmissionSubmit your Research

2024 Charles H. Dow Award Winners - Ralph Vince and Larry Williams

Congratulations, CMT for their winning research, “The Ripple Effect of Daily New Lows”

Abstract: Breadth data is ubiquitous in the study of the stock market. Daily New Lows have a predictive reliability as robust as any breadth data element, yet remain the most overlooked of all daily breadth metrics, relegated to being the “wallflower” of daily breadth data. Typically, market analysts heavily examine absolute and relative advances/declines and various derivative indicators like the advance-decline line and McClellan Oscillator when assessing daily breadth. Analysts also scrutinize volume on advancing / declining stocks, often combined with advance / decline data in indicators like TRIN.

Introduction: We will be focusing solely on daily New Lows data of NYSE stocks with respect to price. With any data set, derivative calculations can be formed, examined, and conclusions drawn. For example, moving averages, data differences over various time periods, etc., are all worthy of examination.

Review of the Literature: Daily New Lows have been extensively studied as a market indicator with analyses evolving from contrarian sentiment gauge to informing momentum and technical strategies. This review summarizes key publications that have examined the application of daily New Lows in chronological order.

Summary and Conclusion: We have unequivocally demonstrated using empirical data, not only the value of daily perusal of New Lows to the analyst, but the necessity of such, given the reliability of these indicators based on the past four-plus decades of daily data.

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Past Award Winners

2023 – Andrew Thrasher, The 5% Canary

2022 – Alex Spiroglou, MACD-V: Volatility Normalised Momentum

2021 – Makenna Barbara, The Efficacy Of Modified Momentum Based Technical Indicators On U.S. Equities: A Study Of Parabolic SAR

2020 – Chris Cain & Laurence Connors, Quantamentals

2019 – Christopher Diodato, Making The Most Of Panic

2018 – Gioele Giordano, Ranked Asset Allocation Model

2017 – Andrew Thrasher, Forecasting A Volatility Tsunami (Videos: Interview | Presentation)

2016 – Charles Bilello & Michael Gayed, Leverage For The Long Run: A Systematic Approach To Managing Risk And Magnifying Returns In Stocks

2015 – Amber Hestla-Barnhart, Fixing The VIX: An Indicator To Beat Fear

2014 – Charles Bilello & Michael Gayed, An Intermarket Approach To Beta Rotation: The Strategy, Signal And Power Of Utilities

2013 – George Schade, The Repeating Story Of On Balance Volume

2011 – Julie Dahlquist & Richard Bauer, Analyzing Gaps For Profitable Trading Strategies

2010 – Wayne Whaley, Planes, Trains And Automobiles: A Study Of Various Market Thrust Relationships

2009 – Kevin Lapham, Using IPOs To Identify Sector Opportunities

2008 – Stanley Eakins, William Deshurko & Samuel Tibbs, Using Style Index Momentum To Generate Alpha

2007 – Buff Pelz Dormeier, Price And Volume: Digging Deeper

2004 – Jason Goepfert, Mutual Fund Cash Reserves, The Risk-Free Rate, And Stock Market Performance

2003 – Gary Anderson, The Janus Factor

2002 – Paul Desmond, Identifying Bear Market Bottoms And New Bull Markets

2001 – Peter Eliades, Sign Of The Bear

2001 – Charles Kirkpatrick, Stock Selection: A Test Of Relative Stock Values Reported Over 17 ½ Years

1999 – Eric Bjorgen & Steve Leuthold, Corporate Insiders’ Big Block Transactions

1998 – Chris Carolan, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon

1996 – Timothy Hayes, The Quantification Predicament

1995 – William Scheinman, Information, Time & Risk

1994 – Charles Kirkpatrick, Charles Dow Looks At The Long Wave

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 260 submissions, and recognized 27 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions to the Charles H. Dow Award. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium held in New York City each April.

The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding of market action, the concepts of technical analysis, and thorough research. Additional information on the Standards of Judgment, included within the Guidelines for Submissions.

For more information on the Charles H. Dow Award, please contact DowAward@cmtassociation.org.

Submissions for the 2025 Dow Award will open on July 1st, 2024 and remain open until December 20th, 2024; however, we accept research for publication in the Journal of Technical Analysis on a rolling basis year-round

See the Guidelines for Submissions

SUBMIT YOUR RESEARCH

2024 Charles H. Dow Award Winners - Ralph Vince and Larry Williams

Congratulations, CMT for their winning research, “The Ripple Effect of Daily New Lows”

Abstract: Breadth data is ubiquitous in the study of the stock market. Daily New Lows have a predictive reliability as robust as any breadth data element, yet remain the most overlooked of all daily breadth metrics, relegated to being the “wallflower” of daily breadth data. Typically, market analysts heavily examine absolute and relative advances/declines and various derivative indicators like the advance-decline line and McClellan Oscillator when assessing daily breadth. Analysts also scrutinize volume on advancing / declining stocks, often combined with advance / decline data in indicators like TRIN.

Introduction: We will be focusing solely on daily New Lows data of NYSE stocks with respect to price. With any data set, derivative calculations can be formed, examined, and conclusions drawn. For example, moving averages, data differences over various time periods, etc., are all worthy of examination.

Review of the Literature: Daily New Lows have been extensively studied as a market indicator with analyses evolving from contrarian sentiment gauge to informing momentum and technical strategies. This review summarizes key publications that have examined the application of daily New Lows in chronological order.

Summary and Conclusion: We have unequivocally demonstrated using empirical data, not only the value of daily perusal of New Lows to the analyst, but the necessity of such, given the reliability of these indicators based on the past four-plus decades of daily data.

GET YOUR COPY