
What's Inside...
IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GLOBAL GROWTH ESTIMATES AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH EQUITY RETURNS
by Rodrigo Morales, CFA, CAIA, CMTWe are in that time of the year when the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report is discussed in every financial newspaper and the media. Around the world the latest updates in growth estimates are being...
FUNDAMENTAL LINE INDICATORS FOR INVESTORS
by Martha Stokes, CMTEditor’s note: This article was originally published by Proactive Advisor Magazine and is reprinted here with permission. Subscriptions to Proactive Advisor Magazine are available to financial...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: MODERN PERSPECTIVES
The MTA is proud to announce the availability of a new jointly published literature review entitled Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives. We are delighted to collaborate with the CFA Institute...
COMMON MISTAKES OF MOMENTUM INVESTORS
by Gary AntonacciEditor’s note: this was originally posted at DualMomentum.net by Gary Antonacci, a featured speaker at the MTA’s 2015 Annual Symposium. Like most investors, those using momentum are often guilty...
2016 MIKE EPSTEIN AWARD WINNER: DR. EDWARD J. ZYCHOWICZ, CFA, CMT
by Lawrence LaterzaThe 2016 Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (MTAEF) Annual Fundraiser was held on October 26th at The Yale Club of New York City. This yearly event is an important source...
ALGORITHMIC TRADING: BACKTESTING AN RSI STRATEGY
by Keith SeloverEditor’s note: This article was originally posted at KeithSelover.net and is reprinted here with permission. It is presented as an example of the new software tools available for technical analysis...
CALL FOR NOMINATION
The Market Technicians Association (MTA) is a dynamic association focused on building a strong community of market professionals, maintaining the highest ethical standards in the industry, and...
OPTION PRICING METHODS IN THE LATE 19TH CENTURY
by George DotsisEditor’s note: this paper is available at SSRN.com and highlights the history of options pricing models. It demonstrates the long history of quantitative models in the markets and the relevance of...
We are in that time of the year when the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report is discussed in every financial newspaper and the media. Around the world the latest updates in growth estimates are being discussed and the best economists are there to explain the reasons and details of the new global growth numbers. This is probably the economic report that gets more attention globally and is published twice a year, but how does it relate to the market? It is common to read financial analysts mentioning the latest downgrade or upgrade in global economic growth by the IMF as one of the reasons for an investment thesis as it sounds logical and rational. Nevertheless, markets often give us counterintuitive outcomes so it would be useful to analyze the relationship between these downgrades/upgrades and the actual changes in the market. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a useful database with the historical
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Rodrigo Morales, CFA, CAIA, CMT
Rodrigo Morales, CFA, CAIA, CMT, is the Head of Systematic Strategies at Profuturo, a Scotiabank Pension Fund based in Peru with more than USD 10 billion in AUM. Previously, Rodrigo worked as the Head of Tactical Asset Allocation and as a Senior Analyst of Global Strategies in...
Editor’s note: This article was originally published by Proactive Advisor Magazine and is reprinted here with permission. Subscriptions to Proactive Advisor Magazine are available to financial professionals at no charge. Fundamental analysis is the foundation of stock investing and continues to be the number one source of data for selecting stocks by giant institutions, market professionals, managers of small funds, and retail investors. However, the quality of fundamental data and the timeliness of that data are not the same for each of these market participant groups. The retail investor often receives data from financial reports after the information has already been acquired by institutions and market professionals. Major institutions—responsible for the largest mutual and pension funds—have the resources, talent, and power to investigate companies well ahead of any reports issued by a firm to the general public. Though it may appear that technical patterns lead or predict the market, they merely show information
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Martha Stokes, CMT
Martha Stokes, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Co-founder and CEO of TechniTrader. She is a former buy-side Technical Analyst. Since 1998, she has developed over 40 TechniTrader Stock and Option courses and classes for beginning to advanced...
The MTA is proud to announce the availability of a new jointly published literature review entitled Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives. We are delighted to collaborate with the CFA Institute Research Foundation on this project and its goal of dispelling myths surrounding the professional practice of technical analysis. You can read the paper at https://www.mta.org/ta/technical-analysis-modern-perspectives/ Recent research has addressed the role of technical analysis in the broader context of financial markets and begins to trace the linkages among behavioral economics, individual actors in financial markets, and the role of technical analysis in studying the behavior of individual actors. The efforts stemming from the job analysis and revision of the CMT curriculum led to a refined articulation of our discipline and strengthened our position with respect to the broader investment industry. This paper clarifies and solidifies our emphasis on objectivity and risk management in the investment process. The interest of the CFA Institute Research
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Editor’s note: this was originally posted at DualMomentum.net by Gary Antonacci, a featured speaker at the MTA’s 2015 Annual Symposium. Like most investors, those using momentum are often guilty of chasing performance. In fact, momentum requires that we do this. But it should be done in a disciplined and systematic way. Performance chasing should not be due to myopia, irrational loss aversion, or other psychological biases. Behavioral Challenges It is not always easy adhering to a disciplined approach. If you are not vigilant, emotions can get the better of you. Even Daniel Kahneman, the father of behavioral economics, admits to being influenced by behavioral heuristics. We may forget our strategy’s long-term expected outperformance when we experience uncomfortable drawdowns. The survival instinct kicks in strongly then. Recency bias can make us feel the drawdown will never end. We may also have to deal with regret aversion when our portfolio underperforms. This will happen sooner or later. No strategy
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Gary Antonacci
Gary Antonacci has over 35 years’ experience as an investment professional focusing on underexploited investment opportunities. His innovative research on momentum investing was the first place winner in 2012 and the second place winner in 2011 of the prestigious Wagner Awards...
The 2016 Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (MTAEF) Annual Fundraiser was held on October 26th at The Yale Club of New York City. This yearly event is an important source of funding that contributes to the foundation’s ongoing efforts to establish, support, and continually enhance both accredited courses and research in the field of Technical Analysis on campuses around the globe. This year the record number of supporters in attendance were treated to a full evening of events. Highlights included an informative panel discussion by panel members Jim Cramer, Jeff DeGraff, Steve Blitz and Jason Trennert, a silent auction and the presentation of the prestigious Mike Epstein Award for 2016 to Dr. Edward J. Zychowicz, CFA, CMT of Hofstra University. Each year at the fundraiser, the Mike Epstein Award is presented to a prominent member of the academic community in recognition of that individual’s many years of successfully advocating for the inclusion of Technical
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Lawrence Laterza
Editor’s note: This article was originally posted at KeithSelover.net and is reprinted here with permission. It is presented as an example of the new software tools available for technical analysis and includes a sample of the code required to back the widely-used RSI indicator. The article also highlights a number of resources available to analysts and is a primer for those wanting to learn more about programming. To learn more, please visit KeithSelover.net. The above chart was generated in Python. It’s the result of backtesting a basic algorithmic trading strategy that makes use of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). In this tutorial I’ll walk through implementing and graphing a simple strategy. The tutorial should provide a framework that will allow coders to swap out code segments to include strategies and indicators of their preference. It’s meant more to model the beginnings of a customizable backtesting platform than a successful strategy. Libraries There is a small
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Keith Selover
Keith Selover is currently a senior at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business, studying Finance and Computer Science. He is an incoming analyst at Waterfall Asset Management. This blog serves as a portfolio of short data-related programming projects....
The Market Technicians Association (MTA) is a dynamic association focused on building a strong community of market professionals, maintaining the highest ethical standards in the industry, and promoting the use of technical analysis in the investment process. Participating in the leadership of an organization like the MTA can be a deeply rewarding experience. It is an opportunity to work closely with industry leaders, to significantly further the mission of the MTA, and to have a real impact on technical analysis in the financial industry. You will also find the experience to provide great opportunities to improve yourself both personally and professionally. So what is actually involved in serving on the MTA Board? What qualities should you look for when nominating other members? Is this a good role for you personally? Here are the expectations of MTA Board members, which I have boiled down to the “5 P’s.” An MTA Board member
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Editor’s note: this paper is available at SSRN.com and highlights the history of options pricing models. It demonstrates the long history of quantitative models in the markets and the relevance of history to market analysts. The complete paper, with all citations, can be read at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2831362. Abstract: This paper examines option pricing methods used by investors in the late 19th century. Based on the book called “PUT-AND-CALL” written by Leonard R. Higgins in 1896 and published in 1906 it is shown that investors in that period used routinely the put-call parity for option conversion and static replicating of option positions, and had developed no-arbitrage pricing formulas for determining the prices of at-the-money and slightly out-of-the-money and in-the-money short-term calls and puts. Option traders in the late 19th century understood that the expected return of the underlying does not affect the price of an option and viewed options mainly as instruments
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

George Dotsis
New Educational Content This Month
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September 13, 2023
Charting and Analysis in Today’s Equity Markets
Presenter(s): Anthony F. Esposito, CMT
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September 6, 2023
Market Trend Analysis
Presenter(s): Stephen W. Bigalow
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August 30, 2023
Two New Oscillators – Volume Zone and Price Zone
Presenter(s): David Steckler