Editor’s note: this paper compares the opinions of technical analysts with those of fundamental analysts using forecasts made on a CNBC show. The complete paper can be found at SSRN and was the subject of a recent MarketWatch article. Abstract: This paper studies the real-time value of technical and fundamental investment recommendations broadcasted simultaneously on the TV show “Talking Numbers.” Considering individual stocks, technicians outperform leading fundamental analysts in predicting upward and downward price movements over investment horizons of one to twelve months. Technicians also deliver a significant alpha with respect to the Fama–French and momentum benchmarks. Regarding market indexes, other equity indexes, Treasuries, and commodities, both technicians and fundamental analysts deliver poor forecasts. The evidence supports the notion that technicians can detect insider buying and selling of individual stocks, whereas fundamental analysis is virtually worthless.  1.  Introduction This paper employs a novel database from “Talking Numbers” to assess the value of technical

Editor’s note: This article was originally published at the Global Financial Data blog and is reprinted here with permission. At the beginning of 2015, the British government had £2.59 billion in undated securities outstanding, representing about 0.23% of the British government’s gilt portfolio. These bonds had no set redemption date, but could be redeemed with three months’ notice. In theory, the gilts could have existed forever. These securities had originally been issued between 1853 and 1946 and replaced securities that originated back in the 1700s. Unfortunately, they are no more.  The last undated gilt, also referred to as a perpetuity because it had no redemption date, was called in by the British government on July 5, 2015.  Three hundred years of financial history has come to an end. Perpetuities Begin To understand why perpetuities existed, you have to go back to the beginning of Britain’s financial history.  Originally, loans were made direct to the

Editor’s note: this was one of the most widely read papers at SavvyInvestor.net in 2015. It was originally published in the Rotman International Journal of Pension Management (Volume 7, Issue 2, Fall 2014).  An electronic copy is available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2497513. Abstract: Proprietary information and data-processing systems have become key competitive differentiators for investors; better systems provide better data, which in turn drive better investment decisions and performance. But while the best systems are multifaceted and touch all aspects of the investment organization, one component of such systems is increasingly important: the measurement and attribution of investment performance. Performance attribution should do more than just explain the past; it should also be a tool to make better future investment decisions. This article describes the Alberta Investment Management Corporation’s journey to develop a performance attribution system as an investment management tool, in the hope of contributing to the institutional investor debate on

This might be the most frequently asked question related to ethics – what can I say about my participation in the CMT program on my resume? Candidates in the program want to know how to provide details on their accomplishments without violating any ethical guidelines. The answer is that you can include your status in the CMT program but must be factual. Below are specific guidelines for each step in the process: You’ll notice that after registering for an exam you are a candidate for that level. After passing an exam you can note that you passed that level as well as previous levels. The table above presents guidelines. Variations are allowed. Instead of saying you passed an exam, it is acceptable to say you completed the exam or use any other word that conveys that meaning. Once you earn the CMT, it is also important to use the term correctly. You should never

Editor’s note: Crestmont Research maintains charts on a number of fundamental data series. Much of this data can be applied by technical analysts. P/E ratios and dividend yields can be interpreted as sentiment indicators while inflation and Treasury yields are inputs for intermarket analysis. These charts were updated in January by Crestmont Research.