VantagePoint 6.3 by Market Technologies, LLC
Like newborn babes, traders enter the market with high hopes and great expectations. Among their first tasks is to find the ‘best’ method to trade, and this is something they will spend anywhere from six months to as much as five years doing. Armed with little more than hope and a dream, they scan the literature, enroll in seminars, buy a truckload of books on the topic and then either choose a charting program or for the more technically advanced, create a system that they believe suits their desired trading style.
During your first year (if you are lucky), you come to the grim realization that backtesting produces great results, especially if you fall into the curve-fitting trap but try such a system in real-time with real money and you usually get slaughtered. Indicators like the zigzag, available in most charting programs, are a great example. It works extremely well in back tests, but those who use it to trade in real-time will watch helplessly as the latest reversal signal disappears and a new one forms in the same direction. With it goes your hard-earned money. Black Box systems that provide little if any indication into how signals are generated are another trap that becomes just one more expensive ‘how-not-to’ lesson.
It is somewhere between year one and three that it typically begins to become apparent that there is no such thing as the Holy Grail. With this epiphany comes a dramatic change in the trader’s focus. By this time the “get-rich-quick” crowd have become discouraged by the compounding costs of buying trading products only to realize that they fail to do the trick and often produce trading loses. Those with gambling addictions who saw trading as another way to feed their habit migrate back to online gambling sites or the casinos in search of easier money. They represent the trading dropouts. The survivors have passed the first major test and from this group will ultimately emerge the professional traders, analysts and market wizards.
The Intermarket Analysis Realization
In 1991, John J. Murphy’s Intermarket Technical Analysis was published. It was the first book to detail the impact that different asset classes exerted upon on another with a myriad of examples. Murphy’s next book on the topic in 2004, simply entitled Intermarket Analysis, discussed how he discovered the interplay between the four asset classes of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies and what had changed since his first book.
Software pioneer Louis Mendelsohn, a member of the Market Technicians Association since 1988, recognized intermarket relationships in the mid 1980s and began looking at ways to incorporate them into a software application. In 1991 he first made VantagePoint available to clients. The program used a series of intermarket inputs combined with neural networks to produce trading signals. In September 2005 version 6.3 was released, increasing the number of markets covered to 69.
How VantagePoint Works
Each market utilizes five separate neural networks to make forecasts. A neural network is a software program that is designed to function like the human brain and has the ability to ‘learn’ from past signals by comparing patterns. This means that, as intermarket relationships or markets change, the program updates formulas. Since markets are in a constant state of flux, this quality is critical to any successful trading system.
VantagePoint offers the trader a number of new indicators that, unlike lagging indicators prevalent in most trading programs, are instead designed to lead the market. Here is how the program charts gold.
Figure 1 – VantagePoint daily chart of gold showing the standard 10-day simple moving average (black) and 10-day Vantage Point predicted moving average (blue) indicators in the main chart window and the predicted 5-day (cyan) and 10-day moving averages (magenta) as well as the Neural Index (royal blue) in the lower window. The green arrow shows the buy signal taken by Mark D. (see below). Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)
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The predicted 10-day moving average (blue) line in the main graph above, predicted 5-day (cyan), predicted 10-day moving average (magenta) difference lines and the Predicted Neural Index (navy blue) in the lower subgraph use proprietary inputs from the following intermarkets:
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How does an experienced trader utilize the program?
Independent professional trader Mark D. says that fifty percent of his trades are in options and the rest in futures. He uses a three-pronged approach when locating trades. One strategy relies on VantagePoint software, he says. Mark has been using the program for the past 20 months and has found it a great tool for his business.
He locates trades by first looking for markets that are trending, then locating those that are overbought or oversold. For the latter he uses his own standard deviation bands and likes to see markets that are more than one standard deviation away from the mid moving average band. They are similar to Bollinger Bands but not quite the same, he says.
Thirdly, he looks at intermarkets that impact the issue in question and VantagePoint gives him this information. He locates potential trades by finding markets that are getting overbought or oversold, for which trade signals also appear on his chart.
Here is an example. In July 2005, the gold market was fairly oversold (over two standard deviations from the mean). On July 25, the 10-day Predicted Moving Average (PMA) crossed the 10-day Actual Moving Average. The Predicted Neural Index was 1 and both the 5 and 10-day Predicted Moving Averages Differences (PMAD) were in positive territory. On July 27, the 10-day PMA retested the 10-Actual Moving Average, providing further confirmation. This provided him with a profitable buy signal at around $428/oz, he said. (See figure 3.)
Mark D. is an example of the new breed of trader who uses intermarket analysis as a major pillar of his business and he credits VantagePoint with helping him.
The program is not perfect, and has a way to go to attain stand-alone status. It currently lacks the ability to draw trendlines, notations, and arrows, and to integrate mainstream indicators. The company claims it is working on these items for future releases. The program works best in trending markets, which means it can give false signals in choppy, sideways markets. But this is true of any good trend-based trading system.
On the plus side, it is the first “intelligent” computer program tested by the author that integrates intermarket analysis, a neural network approach, and a leading market indicator to give the user a way of simply integrating multiple market data in a single package.
Product Reviewed – VantagePoint Version 6.3 Intermarket Analysis SoftwareTM
Cost: $3,500USD purchase for 3-market package. Substantial discounts on additional markets.
Manufacturer – Market Technologies, LLC., Wesley Chapel, Florida, U.S.A.
E-mail: info@tradertech.com
Internet: http://www.tradertech.com/
System Requirements – Minimum16MB RAM, Windows 95/98, ME, 2000, NT or XP.
VantagePoint is a Windows application, featuring “point and click” and “drag and drop” technology. All 69 markets share the same user interface, charts and reports.
Platforms – Versions 6.2 and 6.3 tested.
Set-Up Time & Performance – Thirty minutes for Version 6.2. Five minutes for Version 6.3. Daily updates took 10 – 20 minutes max. on broadband. Program easy to use and very intuitive. Can choose multiple markets at once and tile for fast and easy analysis.
Machine used in testing – Desktop – MS Windows 2000, 1 Gig. RAM, Speed 2.5 Gighz. Pent 4, 80 Gig HD. Broadband (cable) connection.
Laptop – MS Windows XP Pro, 1 Gig. RAM, Speed 3.2 GigHz Pent 4, 80 Gig HD. Broadband Wireless.
Data Providers – Genesis, CSI Data and Commodity Research Bureau (CRB).
Rating – 8.5/10