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Technically Speaking, November 2012

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This edition of Technically Speaking consists almost entirely of ideas discussed in Seattle at the recent MTA Regional Seminar. I did not attend the Seminar hoping to find these ideas but all MTA events result in a large number of ideas for me.  The speakers are always thought-provoking and discussions with participants who travel to the events are equally inspiring. In the end, I always find more ideas than I have time to test or write about.

Meetings of the MTA have been serving this purpose for years. As the number of members increased, the MTA adopted technology to bring the benefits of meetings to members around the world. Blogs and discussions forums on the MTA web site are offering me an increasing number of trading ideas and increasing networking opportunities.

The MTA will certainly keep improving the opportunities for members to interact, but there is no way anyone can improve the quality of the interactions among market professionals that have defined the organization for nearly 40 years.

I encourage everyone to take advantage of the opportunity to gain insight, discover new techniques and celebrate with the global technical community at the 2013 MTA Annual Symposium in New York on April 4 &5, 2013. For complete information please visit https://symposium.mta.org.

Please send any comments you have about our newsletter to editor@mta.org.

Sincerely,
Michael Carr

What's Inside...

NOTES FROM SEATTLE: A SUMMARY OF PRESENTATIONS MADE AT THE MTA REGIONAL SEMINAR

by Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

It was admittedly a difficult decision, whether to leave the warm and comforting breezes of the late-autumn weather in my City by the Bay (San Francisco, California) and travel north to Seattle, that...

NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET: THIS SECULAR BEAR HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN

by Ed Easterling

Editor’s note: This research piece is presented as an example of Fusion Analysis, hopefully illustrating in more detail the ideas presented by Craig Johnson at the Seattle Regional Seminar. It was...

CLASSIC TRADING TECHNIQUES: GARTLEY PATTERNS

by Leslie Jouflas, CMT

Editor’s note: While making a presentation at the MTA Seattle Regional Seminar, I mentioned that one of the earliest references to relative strength in the literature is a 1946 article written by...

INTERVIEW WITH PAUL CIANA, CMT

by Paul Ciana, CMT & Amber Hestla-Barnhart

How would you describe your job? The Application Specialist group at Bloomberg serves as liaisons between many divisions of the firm. We generate research for and consult with our clients, are...

MTA BLOGS

by Shravan Dharmaraj & Natarajan Visweswaran

Editor’s note: This month we are presenting two short-term examples of market analysis. Work like this is often posted under the blog section of the MTA’s web site and could be a valuable source...

NOTES FROM SEATTLE: A SUMMARY OF PRESENTATIONS MADE AT THE MTA REGIONAL SEMINAR

NOTES FROM SEATTLE: A SUMMARY OF PRESENTATIONS MADE AT THE MTA REGIONAL SEMINAR

It was admittedly a difficult decision, whether to leave the warm and comforting breezes of the late-autumn weather in my City by the Bay (San Francisco, California) and travel north to Seattle, that other inlet metropolis on the Pacific better known for its cold and gloomy, drizzling rain, which at this time of year most assuredly repels all Californians. The MTA’s Seattle Regional Seminar was taking place on October 19th at the Hotel Monaco in downtown Seattle and I, as the current Chair of the MTA’s San Francisco Chapter, felt a nagging obligation to fly up there and check it out. While many MTA members on the East Coast of the U.S. or in another country may not realize it, everything out west is way, way farther apart than you think (New York to Chicago is about the same distance as the flight from San Francisco to Seattle). Yet, I knew

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

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NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET: THIS SECULAR BEAR HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN

NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET: THIS SECULAR BEAR HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN

Editor’s note: This research piece is presented as an example of Fusion Analysis, hopefully illustrating in more detail the ideas presented by Craig Johnson at the Seattle Regional Seminar. It was originally published by Crestmont Research at www.crestmontresearch.comon July 1, 2012.) Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered bountiful returns. In contrast, secular bears seem like hangovers. They are awakenings that strip away the intoxication, leaving a sobering need for an understanding of what has happened. Conventional wisdom explains these periods as irrational or coincidental periods. In reality, secular bulls and bears are periods driven by longer-term trends in the inflation rate. A trend away from low inflation, whether to high inflation or deflation, drives the value of the market lower.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ed Easterling

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CLASSIC TRADING TECHNIQUES: GARTLEY PATTERNS

CLASSIC TRADING TECHNIQUES: GARTLEY PATTERNS

Editor’s note: While making a presentation at the MTA Seattle Regional Seminar, I mentioned that one of the earliest references to relative strength in the literature is a 1946 article written by H. M. Gartley. Afterwards, one of the attendees, Leslie Joutflas, showed me a photo of Gartley, her dog who she had named after the great market analyst. Below are three short articles Leslie has written based on techniques she learned from studying the original work of H. M. Gartley. Trading AB=CD Patterns from Coils The markets go through a constant process of range contraction and range expansion. The range contraction can many times form great AB=CD patterns as the price tests the upper and lower ends of the range. Eventually the market will move out of that range one direction or another in the form of range expansion or a trend. I like to think of this process as coiling,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Leslie Jouflas, CMT

Leslie Jouflas, CMT

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INTERVIEW WITH PAUL CIANA, CMT

INTERVIEW WITH PAUL CIANA, CMT

How would you describe your job? The Application Specialist group at Bloomberg serves as liaisons between many divisions of the firm. We generate research for and consult with our clients, are involved in the development process of the Bloomberg Professional Service, create and implement marketing strategies, provide training to our sales and analytics division and assist our sales division in growing and defending our business. What led you to look at the particular markets you specialize in? What lead me to specialize in technical analysis was the direction our business at Bloomberg was taking and my genuine interest in the topic. A small part of two finance classes I took, one in high school and the other in college, discussed technical analysis and thus peaked my interests. While focusing on the equity markets at Bloomberg, I saw an opportunity to become a resource on the topic of technical analysis because we were investing

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Paul Ciana, CMT

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MTA BLOGS

MTA BLOGS

Editor’s note: This month we are presenting two short-term examples of market analysis. Work like this is often posted under the blog section of the MTA’s web site and could be a valuable source of trading ideas. Nifty slips into a short term downtrend, breaks down from its two week sideways range by Shravan Dharmaraj Nifty futures have finally broken down after building a two week sideways range. The breakdown occurred with a 74 point down move led by selling pressure in Banking, Realty and Consumer Durables. We have been commenting in our previous reports about the inability of the index to scale the firm overhead supply zone around 5730 over the past 14 sessions. In today’s session too, the index reacted after reached the high of 5725 and witnessed selling pressure for the remainder of the day’s session. Overall market breadth turned weak with more than 75% of the broader BSE 500

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Shravan Dharmaraj

Natarajan Visweswaran

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New Educational Content This Month

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