As the most unusual of years rolls on, Summer gives way to Autumn in the north and the stock market gets its third wind. Although subject to change at any time, since the March low, we’ve seen a second quarter rally and a June correction. Then a third quarter rally and a September correction. If the pattern holds, we’re good until December, right? No, that is far from a prediction, but who among us does not like patterns?
The election is nigh and with any luck, we’ll know sooner rather than later what we are getting for the next four years. More importantly, the cloud of uncertainty overhanging the markets will dissipate and we know they like that better.
Are you getting back to a somewhat normal life? Have you gotten a professional haircut yet? Or is your garage filled with empty Amazon boxes? Even better, have you taken advantage of all the time you saved not commuting to brush up in a new technical technique? Did you binge watch the educational videos available to members?
Association President Scott Richter has been investigating artificial intelligence and machine learning; writing about it in his monthly address here. Perhaps it is time for you to read a few articles on the subject because if the lockdown has taught us anything it is that business as usual is probably gone. You will need to know new things to keep your business growing.
John Letizia returns with this month’s feature article, which looks at another possible casualty of 2020 – the Oil/Gold Ratio. One interesting mention was the perfect storm this year for oil, as demand dried up from slower economic activity and supply soared as Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to have a pumping contest.
Otherwise, this month’s content is a little light because we were all gearing up for the India Summit that took place October 10-11. Clearly, there was no time to gather reviews and stories but we should have plenty for the November newsletter. Anyway, there is still other news to report with membership news and this month’s member interview with Michael Zuber, of Lowry Research. He is a great example for younger members, first finding TA and then finding the CMT Association.
Finally, we introduce a new occasional series called the CMT Photo Archive where we take a journey back in time to see our colleagues at events and gatherings in picture form. We may not be able to gather in person right now, but we can certainly reminisce until we’re able to again. If you have any old photos, please scan and send to us here at editor@cmatassociation.org.
Happy October to all and please keep the pumpkin spice to yourself.
– Michael Kahn, Editor
What's Inside...
President's Letter: AI and ML - the future is now! It’s here and will grow!
by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP
Last week, I was a participant in the annual general meeting for one of my venture capital firms. We spent a lot of time discussing future industry trends in financial technology (fintech) and to...
Second Annual India Summit Concludes Successfully
by Marianna Tessello
This past Sunday, the Association’s 2nd Annual India Summit conference wrapped up on a high note, with a discussion featuring David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Atul Suri of Marathon Trends Advisory....
A New Normal in 2020 for the Oil/Gold Ratio?
by John Letizia II, CPA, CMT, CFTe
Editor’s note – This article was written in late August, so please keep that in mind when it refers to current prices. From 1986 through 2014, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil outpaced...
Member Interview with Michael Zuber, CMT
by Michael Zuber, CMT
Please tell us what you do professionally. I’m currently a Market Analyst at Lowry Research Corporation. I work mainly with financial advisors across the United States and Canada, helping them to...
CMT Photo Archive
by Michael Kahn, CMT
This is the first installment in an occasional series revisiting the Association’s history in pictures. If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or just after work get togethers – the...
Membership Updates
by Marie Penza
Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Brendan McCarty, CMT, Principal at Column E Management, LLC Guy Ortmann, CMT,...
New Educational Content This Month
This month, we’ve added our webcast with Kirk Northington, CMT, as well as an informative information session featuring Dave Keller, CMT, CFA discussing the CMT Program Experience.
President's Letter: AI and ML - the future is now! It’s here and will grow!
Last week, I was a participant in the annual general meeting for one of my venture capital firms. We spent a lot of time discussing future industry trends in financial technology (fintech) and to say the least, it was remarkable! The one major item that caught my eye was the increasing role of AI and ML in fintech. I know most of you know what that means, but to the uninitiated, it is short hand for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Getting very specific, I was struck by the positive aspects of GPT3 – the Generative Pretrained Transformer put together by OpenAI. What’s cool about this language processor and its algorithm is it can write intelligent text, stories, and essays among other things. Remarkably, GPT3 informs itself with 175 billion parameters from the infospace. Can you believe it! It’s almost too large to fathom! This is a quantum step up from
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP
Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM. He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors. He was formerly the co-manager...
Second Annual India Summit Concludes Successfully
This past Sunday, the Association’s 2nd Annual India Summit conference wrapped up on a high note, with a discussion featuring David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Atul Suri of Marathon Trends Advisory. Other highlights from the weekend included a conversation with the “Big Bull,” polarizing investment figure Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, as well as several insightful panels and research presentations on a range of relevant topics. Following the event, we have been proud to note writeups and recaps of key sessions in Bloomberg Quint and the Economic Times of India, as well as several informal reviews across social media. While the online-only format of this event was new to most of us, there were minimal challenges on the logistics end, and the staff and volunteer teams are carefully reviewing the experience to inform future digital-only and hybrid-online events. The Association extends a huge thank you to the sponsors, volunteers and outreach partners that made the
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Marianna Tessello
Marianna Tessello served as the CMT Association's digital producer from 2018 until 2021. She was responsible for the management of most of the association's front-end digital assets during that time, including social media production, current website information and updates, and...
A New Normal in 2020 for the Oil/Gold Ratio?
Editor’s note – This article was written in late August, so please keep that in mind when it refers to current prices. From 1986 through 2014, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil outpaced gold, but then, the U.S. shale revolution began and near-term concerns over global oil supply were abated. As the U.S. started its ascent toward energy independence, the precious metal began to outpace black gold in 2015, before WTI regained its familiar position, outpacing yellow gold in 2017. Enter 2020, a year in which everything is seemingly upside down. Gold (relative to its 1986 starting point) is up 361%, while oil is up only 157%, a far cry from its 2007 peak of nearly a 563% rise. As the precious metal soared in 2020, black gold is down year-to-date, leading to a jump in the oil-to-gold ratio. Using weekly data from January 1986 through December 2019, on average, it would take
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
John Letizia II, CPA, CMT, CFTe
John J. Letizia II, CPA, CMT, CFTe is a sell-side equity analyst. Prior to his time on the sell-side, John worked as a proprietary trader employing technical analysis for three years. John also has worked in both KPMG’s and Ernst & Young’s M&A Tax Practices. John...
Member Interview with Michael Zuber, CMT
Please tell us what you do professionally. I’m currently a Market Analyst at Lowry Research Corporation. I work mainly with financial advisors across the United States and Canada, helping them to understand the underlying condition of the market and trends through the forces of supply and demand and technical analysis. How did you get there? After growing up and graduating from college in Ohio, I took an entry level position at Charles Schwab in their broker trainee program in Phoenix, Arizona. Upon completing the licensing requirements and program, I worked primarily with retail clients, helping them in all aspects of trading, portfolio management, etc. Early on, technical analysis had my curiosity, which led me to obtain the CMT designation in 2017, with a strategic plan to pursue a research position. In early 2018, I left Charles Schwab after obtaining an Analyst position at Lowry Research Corporation in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. So far
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Michael Zuber, CMT
Michael N. Zuber, CMT is a Market Analyst at Lowry Research
CMT Photo Archive
This is the first installment in an occasional series revisiting the Association’s history in pictures. If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or just after work get togethers – the older the better – please submit them (in digital form, if possible). Please also let us know who is in them and where and when they were taken. 25th Annual Seminar (Atlanta, 2000) Pictured: Ralph J. Acampora, Sam H. Hale, Robert J. Farrell, Dodge O. Dorland, Walter R. Deemer, J. Peter Steidlmayer, Bruno Estier, Mike Epstein, Connie Brown, Hank O. Pruden, Christopher L. Carolan, Arthur A. Merrill, Robert R. Prechter, Jr., John C. Brooks, Donald Worden, David L. Upshaw, Frank L. Teixera, John A. Bollinger, Michael Smyrk, Hiroshi Okamoto, George A. Schade, Jr., Richard W. Arms, Jr., Linda B. Raschke, Paul F. Desmond 26th Annual Seminar (Lincolnshire, IL 2001) Pictured: Bruno DiGiorgi, John Kosar, Mike Jepson, Bruno Estier, John Brooks, Mark Scott, Dick
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Michael Kahn, CMT
Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker. Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on...
Membership Updates
Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Brendan McCarty, CMT, Principal at Column E Management, LLC Guy Ortmann, CMT, Director of Research/Senior Technical Analyst at R.F. Lafferty &Co. Inc. Sean Dillon, CMT, Chief Investment Strategist at Pinnacle Advisory Group Louis R. Civitarese, CMT, Senior Investment Manager at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management CMT Are you looking for information on cancellations/deferments of the CMT exams, recommended hours to study for the exam, or what to expect the day of the exam? The information can easily be found on the website under CMT Program/Frequently Asked Questions. The FAQs also contain information about grading, program fees and the CMT Level I exam exemption. Have you completed the CMT Level I & II exam within the past two years and are interested in the FINRA exams for Research Analyst? Good news, completing the CMT Level I & II exams qualifies you for
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Marie Penza
Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT
New Educational Content This Month
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March 24, 2023
CMT Level III Informational Session
Presenter(s): Stanley Dash, CMT, Tyler Wood, CMT
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March 15, 2023
Why the Dow Theory? Multimarket application, Outperformance, Drawdown reduction, and a 120+ years record
Presenter(s): Manuel Blay
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March 8, 2023
Money and the Fork in the Road for the Year Ahead
Presenter(s): Brendan McCarty, CMT