Technically Speaking, March 2013

One of the most important things to understand about the stock market is its relationship to news. Aside from emotional reactions
lasting just minutes, news does not cause the market to move in any meaningful sense. News is the result of trends in social mood.
Many people who say they understand this idea nevertheless continue to monitor news as if it is meaningful to their investment
decisions. This belief is deadly. Alan Hall, a researcher at the Socionomics Institute, has visually depicted the hypothesis of mood causality so that you will get it. For pure practical value, this is one of the most useful reports about markets you will ever read.

—Robert Prechter

The Wave Principle regulates expressions of social mood, which manifest in social actions with various lag times. This study
proposes that we can use knowledge of these lag times to anticipate fundamental news. To understand socionomic forecasting, it is crucial to understand why some expressions of social mood lag others. Simply stated, people can take some actions immediately in response to social mood, while others take time to coordinate and mobilize.

For example, people can express changes in social mood nearly instantaneously by buying and selling stock. Therefore, the stock
market is a nearly immediate expression of changes in social mood.

But people cannot take immediate action on economic and political decisions, even those made simultaneously with changes in social mood. Robert Prechter explained this point in the August 1985 Elliott Wave Theorist Special Report, “Popular Culture and the Stock Market”:

Major fundamental historic events which are often considered important to the future (i.e., economic activity, lawmaking, war) are not causes of change; they are the result of mass mood changes which have already occurred. The reason that such events are lagging indicators of mood change is that it takes a good deal of time and an extensive swing in mood throughout the populace for the shared mood change to result in such events.

He expanded on this idea in a November 25, 2010 address to students and faculty of the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford:

Let’s suppose a business person is getting more optimistic, and he decides to expand his business. He can’t carry out his plan in minutes or hours. He has to draw up a plan. He has to meet with bankers or venture capitalists.  He has to create new advertising. He has to go through a hiring process. He has to scope out new space to buy or rent. It could take him weeks if not months to bring about tangible results. Conversely, if social mood turns toward the negative, a more pessimistic business person who decides to contract his business might have to sell off inventory, cut back on staff, close a division, and so on. These things take time.

The September 2004 issue of Elliott Wave Theorist included a chart diagramming “the relative temporal relationship between immediate social actions, which can constitute sociometers, and lagging social actions, which often constitute news.” The April 2012 issue updated that chart, shown here as Figure 1:

Toward the left, the jagged black line depicts immediate responses to social mood, giving us, for one thing, the fractal construction of the stock market.  The green dashed line to its right represents a moderately lagging response, such as the economy. …Then there are the really lagging results, depicted by the red line. They include such things as major political actions, because to effect them people first have to form a consensus, and then they have to go through a legislative procedure. All of this takes time. Observe that the longer time it takes to act, the less precisely a set of actions reflects the fluctuations in social mood. The reason is that the lag time for each action is different, so the aggregate expression is less defined.

The latest turns in the economy reflect this lag time. An “official” NBER recession began in December 2007, two months after the stock market peaked; and the recession ended in June 2009, three months after the stock market bottomed.

Political entities cannot act instantaneously upon changes in social mood, either. It takes time for social mood to become extreme enough to motivate enough people to desire and/or demand action from political officials, and it takes time for political entities to turn motivations into plans and plans into actions. As a memorable recent example, social mood, as evidenced by the trend of the stock market, turned down in 2000. But Congress did not vote to take the collective action of declaring war on Iraq until October 10-11, 2002, two days following the low of a 34-month, 38% decline in the DJIA. Then it took the U.S. government another five months to actually start the fighting.

Figure 2 (reprinted from “There’s Always a Mix,” from the May 2011 issue of The Socionomist) illustrates the idea that there are always positive and negative expressions of social mood, but they vary in quantity and intensity. The horizontal bar is posted at the midway point.

Figures 3A and 3B each show an idealized “impulse,” or five-wave, structure from the Elliott wave model, marked with the point of change in the dominance of positive or negative social mood. Each of these “Prechter Points” occurs at the structural center of the largest third wave operative, in either direction. Within the largest-degree positive trend in effect, it marks the point at which people on balance shift from fearing the worst to hoping for the best.  Within the largest degree negative trend
in effect, it marks the point when people on balance shift from hoping for the best to
fearing the worst.

After the Prechter Point occurs, lagging expressions of social mood tend to begin flooding more one sidedly in the direction of the social mood trend.  They don’t become starkly one-sided until months later. (For examples of social expressions surrounding a large-degree Prechter Point in a bull market, see “Social Mood and the Future of Wealth,” in the August 2009 issue of The Socionomist. For a broader discussion, see the February 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist.)

Figure 4 imposes Figure 2 over a graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the bear market of April 1930 to July 1932. It includes the traditional Elliott-wave labeling as published in past issues of The Elliott Wave Theorist, including most recently the April 2009 issue.

The smooth descending line in Figure 4 is a six-month moving average of the DJIA shifted six months into the future. At major turns, it lags prices by roughly nine months. It is designed to approximate lagging expressions of social mood, such as extremes in economic and political news. It is best to think of this lag line as the approximate centerline of a broader swath of probability, much as volatility bands are designed to contain most of the price action in a graph of stock prices.

Pessimism became the dominant stock market sentiment at the Prechter Point of mid-September 1931. But notice that the “lag line” did not reach the price level of the Prechter Point until near the time of the end of wave C, which marked the beginning of reports of the worst economic, political and social news of the decade. In other words, the stock market indicated what was happening with respect to social mood months before the media reported news of the economic and political consequences of the negative mood trend.

Socionomic theory explains why social expressions continually follow this form. Observe that socionomic causality is the opposite of the news-based causality conventionally assumed:

…the stock market does not see into the future…. it reflects instantaneously the causes of the future. Optimistic people expand their businesses; depressed people contract their businesses. … The actions of human beings spurred on by an increasingly ebullient or pessimistic social mood cause earnings to rise or fall. … The same thing is true of political action. Politicians do not turn the tide of a bull or bear market by enacting or abandoning policies. The mass emotional environment, as reflected by the market, forces them at some critical point to act.

—The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Chapter 18, adapted from The Elliott Wave Theorist, August 3, 1979, reprinted in Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, 2003

Lagging Expressions of Social Mood: Social, Economic and Political

The above discussion is a preamble to relating a memorable experience I had while searching the Google News archives. Google News handily returns images of old newspaper pages with one’s search term highlighted. For one article, I wanted a screen-capture of a clean, non-highlighted image. So, I searched for a headline that appeared on an adjoining page, “500,000 Chicagoans,” thinking it was unusual enough that it would lead me back to the same two-page spread. It did, but I serendipitously got another hit on this unusual phrase. One of the stories was from 1931 and the other from 1932, at times that happen to have been four months before and nine months after the Prechter Point in wave C.

At right is the first of the two articles, issued on May 14, 1931 by the Associated Press.  Remember, this event occurred almost halfway down in the biggest collapse in stock prices in American history.

This story describes a public gathering packed so tightly that “several score of persons were overcome, so great was the press of the crowd.” [1] One man died and many needed first aid, but not because of violence; in fact, the crowd was festive and well behaved, according to the cheery reporter.

Note the upbeat unity of the crowd reported near the end of the article.  Social mood had been trending negatively for 21 months—since September 1929—and the country was suffering financially. But the critical psychological threshold—the September 1931 center of wave C—still lay ahead. Note, too, that the hero of the crowd was not a military officer or a politician but a Chamber of Commerce president. Society was still clinging to hopes of business resurgence even as it became increasingly less optimistic.  The crowd in Chicago knew nothing of what lay ahead. But social mood and fundamental economic conditions were about to worsen drastically.

Pessimism became socially dominant when stock prices plummeted through the Prechter
Point. At left is the second article, published a year later by The Toledo News-Bee on June 3, 1932, nine months after the September 1931 Prechter Point and a month before the bottom in stocks.

As you can see, this second story is starkly different, and so are the next two articles, which were adjacent on the same page of the newspaper.

The next two two suicide stories bring to life the grim statistics on U.S. suicide rates, which reached their all-time high—still never exceeded—as darkening social mood carried the stock market to its 1932 bottom.

Figure 5 (below) adds a few key news reports to the bear market picture shown in Figure 4. The numbers along the lag line refer to notable anecdotal expressions of prevailing sentiment, listed in chronological order on the ensuing pages. In 1930, our lag line peaked nine months after the Dow, illustrating the persistent post-peak optimism that helps explain investors’ tendency to hold on to losing stocks during the initial stages of major declines. Observe how the tone of social expression changes after the Prechter Point (indicated on the chart with a red asterisk). In 1933, our lag line bottomed eight months after the Dow, coinciding with the worst economic and political news and illustrating the persistent post-bottom despair that helps explain investors’ tendency to sell or avoid stocks during the initial stages of major advances. Economic fundamentals began weakening before the Dow’s peak in 1929 but after the highs in most stocks, as indicated by the 1928 peak in the advance-decline line.

Positive economic fundamentals lag some market peaks, creating the same profile we see at bottoms. Social psychology remained predominantly optimistic until the Prechter Point in 1931. Although the consequences of trends in unconscious social mood never manifest in exactly the same way, we observe at least one reliable dynamic: positive psychology fools people after tops, and negative fundamentals fool people after bottoms.

News Stories Numbered in Figure 5

The first of these stories is an excerpt from John Kenneth Galbraith’s book, The Great Crash 1929. Galbraith describes a prescient exception to the prevailing optimism of the time. The remainder of these stories represent typical Google News Archive search returns for “economic outlook.”

1. In November 1929, a few weeks after the crash, the Harvard Economic Society gave as a principal reason why a depression need not be feared its reasoned judgment that business in most lines has been conducted with prudence and conservatism. The fact was that American enterprise in the twenties had opened its hospitable arms to an exceptional number of promoters, grafters, swindlers, imposters, and frauds. … a kind of flood tide of corporate larceny. In November, it said firmly that a severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. We are not facing protracted liquidation. This view the Society reiterated until it was liquidated.

However there were exceptions. One was Paul M. Warburg of the International Acceptance Bank, whose predictions must be
accorded the same prominence as the forecasts of Irving Fisher.  They were remarkably prescient. In March of 1929 (#1 in Figure 5), he called for a stronger Federal Reserve policy and argued that if the present orgy of “unrestrained speculation” were not brought promptly to a halt there would ultimately be a disastrous collapse.  This he suggested, would be unfortunate not alone for the speculators. It would “bring about a general depression involving the entire country.…” As the market went up and up, his warnings were recalled only with contempt.

—John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929

Figure 5

2. Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau…. I believe the principle of the investment trusts is sound
and the public is justified in participating in them…. [I expect] to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today, within a few months.

—Irving Fisher, Yale economist, Milwaukee Journal, October 16, 1929

3. [Nearly] all of the standard railroad stocks are cheap and the industrial list is filled with stocks selling at real bargain prices. …
Prudent investors are now buying stocks in huge quantities and will profit handsomely when this hysteria is over… . my friends and I are all buying stocks.

—John J. Raskob, “one of the country’s leading industrial and political leaders”
—The New York Times, October 30, 1929

4. I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.

—Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, December 1929

5. EDITORS REPORT TO HOOVER; Heads of Trade Organs Says Business Outlook is Good.

—The New York Times, December 17, 1929

6. OPINION IS DOUBTFUL ON OUR 1930 OUTLOOK; London Not Reassured by Trade Returns

—The New York Times, January 27, 1930

7. HARDWARE OUTLOOK GOOD.; Orders Booked in Week Indicate Feeling of Optimism.

—The New York Times, February 05, 1930

8. [The] intensity of the speculative boom which reached its climax in the crash of last fall was as great or greater than that of “any of our major manias before,” but … the intensity of the slump which followed it was greatly diminished by the efforts put forth to prevent it. … There has been no significant bank or industrial failure.  That danger, too, is safely behind us.

—Herbert Hoover, The Evening Independent, May 1, 1930

9. ADVERTISERS OPTIMISTIC

—The New York Times, May 07, 1930

10. GUARANTY SURVEY SEES SLOW UPTURN

—The New York Times, July 28, 1930

11. EUROPEAN OUTLOOK IN TRADE IMPROVES

—The New York Times, October 22, 1930

12. HOOVER URGES CONGRESS TO ECONOMIZE AS HE PRESENTS RECORD PEACE BUDGET; 4,860,000 NOW IDLE IN NATION … .
Warning Congress to avoid embarking on any new or enlarged ventures… .

—The New York Times, December 04, 1930

13. BRIGHT REALTY OUTLOOK

—The New York Times, March 08, 1931

14. TAX COLLECTIONS CONTINUE TO FALL

—The New York Times, March 25, 1931

15. ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN SIGHT

—The New York Times, June 07, 1931

16. Depression Losing Grip … Forget Gloom, Banish Fears…

—Herbert Hoover, The Milwaukee Journal, June 16, 1931

• Prechter Point: Mid-September, 1931.

17. J.E. ALLEN HOPEFUL ON REALTY OUTLOOK

—The New York Times, December 24, 1931

18. Unemployed autoworkers demonstrated in The Ford Hunger March from Detroit to Dearborn. Authorities shot and killed five workers and injured 60, many by gunshot.[3]

—Sugar, Maurice (1980). The Ford Hunger March, March 7, 1932

19. We are likely to have a complete economic collapse in Europe within the next few months. L.S. Amery, British House of Commons.

—New York Times, May 27, 1932

20. July brought violent deaths among the Bonus Army, 43,000 World War I veterans and their families who occupied areas of Washington for over a month to demand immediate payment of government-promised compensation for wartime service. After police shot and killed two of the veterans, troops commanded by General Douglas MacArthur and Major George Patton used bayonets and poison gas to drive the rest of the protesting vets out of the city.

—“Bonus Army Spectacle, U.S. Capital, 1932: What Really Happened” July 28, 1932

• Stock market bottom: July 1932.

21. “Striking farmers now fight hunger. Several clashes with deputies occur—tear gas disperses big mob.”[4]

— The Montreal Gazette, August 25, 1932

22. “Famine Widespread In Quebec Region–10,000 people on the verge of starvation and another 60,000 faced with an acute
shortage of provisions … .”[5]

—The Rochester Evening Journal, December 8, 1932

23. “Unemployment Soars to New Record Mark

Unemployment has reached an ‘all time peak’ with more than 11,600,000 persons now out of work in this country, according to
President William Green of the American Federation of Labor. … ‘We are experiencing the worst unemployment crisis in our history,’ the labor leader said. ‘Those out of work are in greater need than ever before, for after three years of depression their resources are exhausted. Mental and physical wreckage caused by depression is driving families to seek relief in constantly growing numbers.’”

—United Press, January 7, 1933

24. “HOARDERS IN FRIGHT TURN IN $30,000,000; Gold Pours Into Banks and the Federal Reserve as Owners Act to Avoid Penalty.
NAMES TAKEN OFF LIST Even Christmas Coins Help to Swell Week’s Recovery of Metal to $65,000,000. Spurred by fear of public
exposure and the threat of fines and imprisonment, gold hoarders scurried back to the Federal Reserve Bank and its member
institutions yesterday to redeposit the yellow coins that they had lately stampeded to withdraw. … little piles of gold pieces brought in by frightened individuals… . The repentant hoarders displayed a good deal of agitation, but they were received courteously by the guards of the Reserve Bank and came out with an evident air of relief when they had disposed of their dangerous treasure. The drastic character of the proposed law against gold hoarding frightened even those who had not thought of themselves as hoarders, but who suddenly recalled a few odd coins left over from Christmas presents which had not been spent because they were too ‘pretty’.…The importance of the return-flow of gold to the Federal Reserve bank was emphasized by bankers, who pointed out that the $65,000,000 recovered so far this week could be used as the basis for the issuance of $162,500,000 of Federal Reserve notes or a very much larger amount of the new currency.”

—New York Times, March 10, 1933

25. “PROLONGED ILLNESS FOUND AMONG IDLE; Survey Shows 40% of Sick on Relief Rolls in State Have Been Ailing for Year. OTHERS AVERAGE 25 DAYS”

—New York Times, April 16, 1933

26. “There is a deeper feeling of pessimism among many of the delegations tonight regarding the… World Economic Conference
than there has been since it assembled.” 

—The New York Times, June 21, 1933

27. Screenshot from The New York Times, “A Chronological Survey of the Outstanding Financial Events of the Past Year” [1933]:

A few public protests and brief riots occurred in the first portion of the decline in 1930 and 1931, but expressions of the increasingly negative mood became angrier and broader following the Prechter Point and especially after the low in stock prices.

Peter Dreier, a professor of politics at Occidental College in Los Angeles, recently wrote, “Riots occur when people are hopeless. Civil disobedience takes place when people are hopeful.”[6] (Emphasis added.) Knowing when such a change occurs is important, and the Elliott wave model can help: People tend to begin abandoning hope after the wave structure passes the Prechter Point.

As indicated in Figure 5, lagging expressions of social mood hit their low in 1933 and produced the worst economic conditions of the decade. As a thought experiment, imagine that you had been among investors who still held stocks at the wave C low. Then consider how challenging it would have been to hold on to them while reading the news items listed in Figure 5 for the year 1933, when negative social events, produced by the preceding negative social mood, reached a climax. Most people would not have been able to resist the urge to abandon their holdings. But had you incorporated the socionomics model of coincident and lagging social change, you would have understood that the bad news was irrelevant to your investment decision-making. If you employed the Elliott wave model, you might have been motivated to buy stocks, while others, stuck in the natural human default of assigning social-mood change to external causes such as economic and political news, would have despaired—as always—and sold out near the low.

The News Progression in 1972-1974

Here is another example of leading and lagging expressions of social mood.  Figure 6 shows the 1973-1974 decline in the DJIA, the largest and steepest decline in the grueling 16-year bear market of 1966-1982. As happened in April 1930, the 1973 lag line peak coincided with a B-wave peak. But this peak was qualitatively different because it occurred seven years into a bear market. Social optimism remained evident in news stories, but it was not as pervasive as in 1930. In this case, positive economic consequences clearly lagged the market peak, providing a handy rationale for post-peak optimism.

Once again, much as in 1933, the low in our 6-month lag line roughly coincides with the worst economic and political news of 1974-1975. In 1975, some six to nine months after the low of wave C, U.S. unemployment hit a 33-year high, the federal deficit reached a 32-year high, U.S. investment and disposable income hit lows, and Saigon fell to the Communists, giving them victory in the Vietnam War. Here are some representative news reports from that period:

Figure 6

Headlines from The New York Times Article Archive, July 1972-December 1974

These are typical examples of headlines that express then-current perceptions and/or expectations about the future as returned in searches for “economic outlook.”

Reserve Chief Optimistic on the Economy

—July 27, 1972

Economic Seers Preview ‘73 as Another Bumper Year for Business

—August 07, 1972

“Continued Economic Growth Is Predicted for 1973”

—September 28, 1972

* Stock market top: January 1973.

Heartening Signals Sighted

—May 06, 1973

The Astonishing Boom…

—August 29, 1973

WESTERN industrial nations are experiencing their greatest economic boom in more than two decades. ECONOMISTS SEE A ‘SOFT LANDING’ WHEN BOOM ENDS

—September 02, 1973

Forecasts’ Tone Improves

—October 21, 1973

Some Signs Point to the Right Path; The Economy The Nation

—November 04, 1973

World’s Business Slowing … Evidence is mounting that the worldwide economic boom of 1972-73 has cooled off and that a less frantic period of economic growth has set in.

—November 18, 1973

Business Is Optimistic on Economy

—December 10, 1973

Economic Outlook Gets Gloomier

—February 13, 1974

It’s Still Early, but Economy May Have Seen the Worst

—March 24, 1974

Economic Storm

—May 31, 1974

The Sky Is Falling

—June 30, 1974

* Prechter Point: August 23, 1974.

A Bundle of Economic Dilemmas

—September 05, 1974

It’s a Recession, All Right

—October 27, 1974

A Nation in Deep Gloom

—November 24, 1974

The Economic Threat… The year is ending with much of the nation in a state of deep anxiety over the course of the economy. There has been nothing like the present degree of apprehensiveness— or confusion— about the business outlook since 1930….

—December 29, 1974

The News Progression in 2007-2012

Figure 7 shows the bear market of 2007-2009, which was the largest and steepest decline in stocks since 1929-1932. To better understand the most recent changes in expressions of social mood, we include the subsequent recovery rally.

As you can see from the notes on the chart, a number of positive economic consequences lagged the October 2007 peak in the stock market.  Expressions of mood and economic consequences also lagged the March 2009 bottom in the stock market, as bad economic news subsequently flooded the media. The lag is evident with respect to the rally from 2009 to 2012 as well. For example, in April 2011, the Dow made a small-degree peak just after our lag line bottomed, producing the mixed social expression
typical of a bear-market rally. On April 12, the IMF announced that the global economy was strengthening, yet the next day, the Obama administration warned of a looming “economic Armageddon.” From that peak, stocks fell into September, yet our theoretical lag line continued higher, and lagging expressions of social mood continued to wax positive right along with it. The November 2011 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast listed a number of them:

• Industrial production rose in October at the fastest pace in three months at the nation’s factories, utilities and mines.
• Factory output, the largest component of industrial production, increased a solid 0.5 percent. It was the fourth straight monthly gain.
• The auto industry has rebounded to drive most of the growth factory output. Production of motor vehicles and parts rose 3.1
  percent in October, the fourth straight monthly gain. Light trucks were the biggest contributor.
• Retail sales last month were higher than analysts had expected, rising 0.5 percent, according to the Commerce Department.
• Wal-Mart, the country’s biggest retailer, said it had posted a quarterly increase in sales after nine consecutive quarters of
  declines.

Even better economic news came in December. Reuters reported on December 22 that Toyota forecast a 20% jump in global sales. That same day, The New York Times described these “unexpected” results and treated them as new causes:

As the fourth quarter draws to a close, a spate of unexpectedly good economic data suggests that it will have some of the
fastest and strongest economic growth since the recovery started in 2009, causing a surge in the stock market and cheering economists, investors and policy makers.

In recent weeks, a broad range of data—like reports on new residential construction and small business confidence—have beaten analysts’ expectations. Initial claims for jobless benefits, often an early indicator of where the labor market is headed, have dropped to their lowest level since May 2008. And prominent economics groups say the economy is growing three to four times as quickly as it was early in the year, at an annual pace of about 3.7 percent.

President Obama got a lift in the polls in November 2011, and he was reelected a year later amid even more optimism, confidence and bonhomie.  These are lagging expressions of the previously positive trend in social mood. Going forward, this lag implies that optimism and positive economic consequences will likely linger for months after the peak of the Dow rally from 2009. Since the Dow made a new four-year high in October, we would expect that most people will maintain hope well into 2013, much as they did in 1930, 1973 and 2008. If the stock market makes another new high, that period will extend accordingly.

This relationship between immediate and lagging social expression explains why people remember news causing market moves. In the months of maximum emotion, such as the final months of the 1990s advance or the 2007-2009 decline, news finally aligns with the trend. People connect the two and believe the news is causal. In most of the trend, emotions are more subdued and the market/news alignment is weaker.

Socionomic theory, as elucidated in these charts, explains why it is futile for investors, economists, politicians and others to base their decisions—as they ceaselessly do—on present news and social events that are in fact results of the preceding trend in social mood. Most people miss the turns in social mood and the stock market because they tend to assign social-mood and stock-market causality to “good news” or “bad news” reported long after the change in the trend of social mood has already occurred. The best economic news tends to come when the stock market is already past its high, and the worst economic news tends to come when the stock market is already past its low. The more aware you become of this dynamic, the more you can think independently of the crowd. That insight—provided only by socionomics and the Elliott wave model—can be immensely useful.

Notes

[1] 500,000 Chicagoans revel: Merrymakers turn downtown district into circus at all-Chicago trade jubilee (1931, May 14). Youngstown Vindicator, Retrieved from http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=549cAAAAIBAJ&sjid=3VcNAAAAIBAJ&pg=1735,5732529&dq=defense+budget&hl=en.

[2] US suicide rate rises, falls with economy (2011, April 15). EconomicCrisis.US, Retrieved from http://economiccrisis.us/2011/04/suicide-rate-rises-falls-economy/.

[3] Ford Hunger March. Wikipedia, Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Hunger_March.

[4] Striking farmers now fight hunger. Several clashes with deputies occur—tear gas disperses big mob (1932, August 25). The Montreal Gazette, retrieved from http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=KoFhAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PpkFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6881,3153898&dq=hunger&hl=en.

[5] Famine widespread in Quebec region (1932, December 8). Rochester Evening Journal, Retrieved from http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=inpZAAAAIBAJ&sjid=-UgNAAAAIBAJ&pg=5063,3481712&dq=st arvation&hl=en.

[6] Dreier, P. (2011, September 20). Protests? yes. riots? no. Huffington Post, Retrieved from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peterdreier/protests-yes-riots-no_b_971136.html