
LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
The Market Technicians Association has always been at the forefront of technical analysis and in this issue we demonstrate some of the ways the organization is doing that. We provide summaries of a few of the presentations made at the Annual Symposium in May which included thought provoking and practical ideas. More summaries will be in next month’s issue.
We also offer a review of a book by Paul Ciana, CMT. New Frontiers in Technical Analysis includes some original research from Paul and features the work of several other technicians, including some members. This book adds to the Body of Knowledge of technical analysis with the new techniques that are presented and for those without access to a Bloomberg terminal it delivers details on what the most commonly used features of that system are.
Last month, while acknowledging those recognized by the Awards Committee, I inadvertently overstated the role that George Lane had in the development of the stochastics. George Schade, Jr., CMT, provides corrected information in a Letter to the Editor that is included in this month’s issue. George’s work is another example of the leadership that members have in the field. He has studied in depth the history of technical analysis and is an invaluable resource to the organization and this newsletter.
Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
What's Inside...
COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS BY PIERRE VAYSSE, PH.D.
by Michael Carr, CMT & Pierre VaysseThis is a summary of Dr. Vaysse’s presentation made at the 2012 Annual Symposium on April 19th – 20th, 2012 in New York City. The complete presentation is available in the MTA Archives at...
TAM’S 100-YEAR MARKET THEORY BY KEVIN TUTTLE
by Kevin A. Tuttle & Michael Carr, CMTThis is a summary of Kevin Tuttle’s presentation made at the 2012 Annual Symposium on April 19th – 20th, 2012 in New York City. The complete presentation is available in the MTA Archives at...
WHAT CAN VOLATILITY DO FOR YOU? FEATURING CARSON DAHLBERG, CMT AND KIRK NORTHINGTON, CMT
by Carson Dahlberg, CMT & Kirk Northington, CMT & Michael Carr, CMTThis is a summary a presentation made at the 2012 Annual Symposium on April 19th – 20th, 2012 in New York City. The complete presentation is available in the MTA Archives at...
CORRECTION: LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Editor’s note: In last month’s issue, the article about George Lane contained an inaccuracy and we are indebted to George Schade, Jr., CMT, for providing a more accurate description of George...
MTAEF SPRING FUNDRAISER RAISES $20,000 WITH LUNCH AUCTION
by THE MTA EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATIONThe MTA Educational Foundation (MTAEF) completed its spring 2012 “Take an Analyst to Lunch” fundraising event. The most recent auction was also referred to as, “Take an Expert to Lunch” and...
NEW FRONTIERS IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY PAUL CIANA, CMT
by Paul Ciana, CMT & Michael Carr, CMTAs an Application Specialist at Bloomberg LP, Paul has access to information that many traders will find useful, and in New Frontiers in Technical Analysis he presents some of that data along with...
INTERVIEW WITH ERIC LEAKE
by Eric Leake & Amber Hestla-BarnhartHow would you describe your job? I’m a portfolio manager for two mutual funds and a hedge fund. What led you to look at futures markets instead of stocks or another tradable? Managing both global...
JPMORGAN TRADING LOSSES HIGHLIGHT RISK MANAGEMENT LESSONS FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSTS
by Michael Carr, CMTBy now, the story is well known. In early May, JPMorgan announced that some hedges designed to limit risk had not worked as planned and the bank was facing losses of at least $2 billion. The trades...
This is a summary of Dr. Vaysse’s presentation made at the 2012 Annual Symposium on April 19th – 20th, 2012 in New York City. The complete presentation is available in the MTA Archives at http://go.mta.org/320. The presentation is subtitled “from mind to market” and the intent is to show that the mind and the market are related to each other and they both form complex adaptive systems. Dr. Vaysse meets that objective with his clear and idea-filled presentation. To understand the idea of a complex adaptive system, Dr. Vaysse asked the audience members to consider the group in the room. Each individual is a singularity and if they all begin interacting with each other, the first product of those interactions will be noise. The noise is actually each individual expressing an articulate thought and a complex adaptive system can identify the output of those individual thoughts. He has developed an “emotional rational behavior
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...

Pierre Vaysse
Pierre Vaysse, a neuroscientist with over 30 years’ experience in the field of neuroscience, developed “From Mind to Market.” His knowledge in brain signaling pathways and neural networks has culminated in the marking of NEUROsystem. Pierre holds a Pharm.D. from the...
This is a summary of Kevin Tuttle’s presentation made at the 2012 Annual Symposium on April 19th – 20th, 2012 in New York City. The complete presentation is available in the MTA Archives at http://go.mta.org/317. When Kevin began working on Wall Street as a broker, he developed a love of technical analysis from a mentor who had a quote from Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes on his desk, ““When I want to understand what is happening today and try to decide what will happen tomorrow; I look back because a page of history is worth a volume of logic.” This quote is in some ways a summary of what charts can tell an intelligent trader. Before turning to the charts in his presentation, Kevin offered a quote from Benjamin Graham, one of the founders of fundamental analysis. In The Intelligent Investor, Graham said ““It is only through the relentless management of Risk based
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Kevin A. Tuttle
Kevin A. Tuttle, an industry-recognized market technician and statistician, who leads the Management Team of Tesseract Asset Management, LLC (TAM). TAM is a Private Money Management firm which specializes in Risk-Controlled Equity Management and caters to both the sophisticated...

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...
This is a summary a presentation made at the 2012 Annual Symposium on April 19th – 20th, 2012 in New York City. The complete presentation is available in the MTA Archives at http://go.mta.org/318. This presentation builds on previous work done by the presenters, which includes a presentation called, “Creating and Applying Volatility-Based Technical Analysis” which was offered as part of the MTA’s Educational Web Series. The archive of this webcast can be seen by visiting: http://go.mta.org/189. Carson began by noting that money is made at the extremes and then began to explain how that idea can be applied to trading. In their work, Carson and Kirk begin with the basic tools of technical analysis and try to take these tools to the next level. They use volatility to make these concepts adaptive to market conditions, fractal in time and useful in any market. They apply a quantitative approach to add statistical validity
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Carson Dahlberg, CMT
Carson Dahlberg, who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a Data Scientist and App Engineer at Wells Fargo with over 20 years of experience in the financial markets, specifically technical and quantitative trading, research and education. Carson has worked...

Kirk Northington, CMT
Kirk Northington, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a quantitative technical analyst and the founder of Northington Trading, LLC. He is also the creator of MetaSwing, advanced analytic software for Bloomberg Professional, MetaStock and...

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...
Editor’s note: In last month’s issue, the article about George Lane contained an inaccuracy and we are indebted to George Schade, Jr., CMT, for providing a more accurate description of George Lane’s role in the development of the stochastics indicator. May 7, 2012 Dear Editor: I am glad Technically Speaking provided two links to the background of the stochastic oscillator and the late George Lane (MTA Recognizes Six With Awards). I hope the statement that Lane “developed” the stochastic oscillator does not confuse others into believing that Lane invented or originated the oscillator. George Lane was not the sole originator of the stochastic oscillator. This assertion has been made for many years by those familiar with the story. Among them is trader Larry Williams who has written that Lane “did not invent Stochastic” (Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading). Author John Murphy accepted this point in 1999, when he replaced the word “invented” with “popularized”
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
The MTA Educational Foundation (MTAEF) completed its spring 2012 “Take an Analyst to Lunch” fundraising event. The most recent auction was also referred to as, “Take an Expert to Lunch” and “Take a Trader to Lunch”, reflecting the broad participation by industry giants. The May auction ran for ten days on EBAY® and included over twenty participants, some of whom graciously continue to support the event time and again. Notable highlights for the event include the following: Dan Zanger for the second time running topped the bidding at $3,500 Nearly $20,000 was raised for the MTAEF With a top bid of $3,300 last October and a matching bid in May of last year, Mr. Zanger’s participation has raised over $10,000 for the Foundation. Matching bids received for widely followed analyst and international investor Jim Rogers contributed to the outstanding results in this year’s auction. Matching bids were also received for David Keller, CMT, a Managing
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

THE MTA EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATION
As an Application Specialist at Bloomberg LP, Paul has access to information that many traders will find useful, and in New Frontiers in Technical Analysis he presents some of that data along with ideas and some specific techniques that seem to have never been disclosed before. The first chapter begins with a definition of technical analysis, which is simply: Technical analysis is the extraction of information from market data into objective visualizations through the use of mathematics with an emphasis on investor behavior and supply and demand to explain the current and anticipate the future path of the financial markets. A precise definition of technical analysis has been the subject of much debate. To those familiar with those debates, it may be surprising how Paul has offered an eloquent solution that requires only 41 words. That definition includes five attributes that any scholar or practitioner would agree are the essence of technical analysis: Market
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Paul Ciana, CMT
Paul Ciana is a Managing Director and Chief Technical Strategist at Bank of America, based in New York. He publishes his short- and long-term technical views on Rates, FX, Commodities and emerging markets in the coveted and most read Technical Advantage report series. To explain...

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...
How would you describe your job? I’m a portfolio manager for two mutual funds and a hedge fund. What led you to look at futures markets instead of stocks or another tradable? Managing both global long-short equity and long-short high yield bond strategies, we monitor a variety of markets and asset classes, including both cash and futures indexes. Do you look at any fundamental or economic inputs to develop your opinions? The analysis of price, volume and spreads are the primary inputs to our quantitative investment models, but we do consider fundamental and economic data as well. What advice would you have for someone starting in the business today? My best advice is to find a mentor, someone who is doing the job you would eventually like to. Second, learn from those who have gone before you by reading their work. There is a tremendous wealth of knowledge publically available that can help formulate your investment thesis. Can
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Eric Leake
Eric Leake is a Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer to Anchor Capital where he has served as Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager for Anchor’s separate accounts since 1996. Eric is a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA), American Association...

Amber Hestla-Barnhart
Bio coming
By now, the story is well known. In early May, JPMorgan announced that some hedges designed to limit risk had not worked as planned and the bank was facing losses of at least $2 billion. The trades were on certain tranches of credit-swap indexes. The MTA enjoys a diverse and growing membership and some members may be involved in these specialized markets or even been on the winning side of these trades. It wasn’t always this way. Originally, the MTA limited membership to technicians focused on the stock market and living in New York. Founding members quickly expanded the organization and today it is possible that a member is an integral part of any news story. It is also possible that some members barely follow the news, profitably focusing solely on charts and ignoring anything else. Several features of the JPMorgan story show how technical analysis has grown and members are using similar
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...
New Educational Content This Month
-
November 22, 2023
Utilizing Trend & Mean Reversion in Breadth Studies to Gauge Market Conditions
Presenter(s): Victor Riesco
-
November 18, 2023
Beating the Bench
Presenter(s): Scott Brown, CMT
-
October 25, 2023
Equity Risk & Potential – Q4, ’24 & Beyond
Presenter(s): Timothy Hayes, CMT