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Technically Speaking, June 2021

A lot of talk about the “new normal” of work fills the airwaves (and digital channels). How many companies are bringing employees back to the office? What will happen to all the supporting businesses around offices if people keep working from home? Is the economy heating up? Inflation? Can restaurants even fill out their staffs?

These are all questions for planners above my pay grade. What I do know is that prices for a lot of goods and services are higher now. This is but one factor we all have to keep in mind, even we technicians. As you all know, a falling dollar tends to make commodities more expensive. Lower commercial real estate demand might mean residential demand is growing, and with it, stocks catering to that segment. Do we still need Zoom? I hope not.

While we are not analyzing the market based on these fundamentals, we do use them to point us in the right direction where real analysis (technicals, of course) can take over. So, keep your eyes open and follow the money to see which asset classes will benefit and which will get hurt. Which companies will thrive, which will not and which ones may be on the road to recovery because they already figured out the “new normal.” Just because a style of technical analysis worked in the past does not mean it will always work the same way. Sell in May, anyone?

As editor, this month my heart is full. As you will read below, we have acquired a treasure trove of old newsletters which will provide a lot of materials for the current version. Old photos; yes, we have them. And we will start with a reprint of a piece written by Dr. Van Tharp, a noted trading and investing coach. He goes beyond trading psychology and hits us over the head with the need for money management. It’s long but well worth the read.

We’ll more on to Association business, an announcement of the Euro Summit, and a review of the May virtual meeting of the Mumbai India chapter. Outgoing President Scott Richter has a few parting words as the new slate of officers takes over in a few weeks.

For those of us in the U.S., enjoy the summer as restrictions are lifted. For our colleagues in areas of the world that are still suffering, keep the faith, as this will one day end.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President's Letter: Thank You for the Opportunity to Serve

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Welcome to my last President’s Letter. Since I’m not one for long goodbyes, I’ll keep this brief. Looking back to 2018, I could not have anticipated or even imagined the many twists and turns...

The CMT Historical Treasure Trove

by Michael Kahn, CMT

I was not working at Lowry Research for very long when tragedy struck the firm. The owner, Joffre LeFevre, and son-in-law of the late Paul Desmond, the firm’s former President, passed away at a...

Why Is It So Difficult for Most People to Make Money in the Market?

by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

This article originally ran in November 1997 edition of Technically Speaking. Imagine playing a game for money in which marbles are drawn out of a bag and then replaced. Sixty percent of the marbles...

Mumbai Chapter Meeting Review

by Foram Chheda, CMT

The Mumbai Chapter meeting was held virtually on Saturday, May 15, 2021 with six distinguished speakers: Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP – Scott is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which...

Join us at the European Summit: Global Themes for A Changing World

by Tyler Wood

Join us at the 2021 European Summit on July 1 & 2. Featuring a slate of global thinkers and leading analysts, the European Summit is uniquely adapted to a digital-first experience. The Summit...

Virtual Event: Upcoming Webcast With NeuraVest

by Emily E.A. Meyer

The CMT Association is excited to announce that JP Gravitt and Eric Davidson, CMT will be joining the Educational Web Series next week, June 23rd at 8AM ET. JP and Eric will present on Using...

New Episode of Fill the Gap Podcast

by Tyler Wood

The Godfather of Technical Analysis, Ralph Acampora, CMT joins Fill the Gap for a conversation about the history of markets, and market technicians. As the co-founder of the “MTA” in the late...

CMT Photo Archive

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in picture, just to offer a glimpse into our past, and in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future. If you have any...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Gustavo Gallardo, CMT, Subgerente de Sales and Trading at FYNSA Vineet Sood, CFA,...

New Educational Content This Month

We’ve added webcast recordings from Alex Cole, Buff Dormeier, CMT, and David Aferiat and Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS in the past month. Learn more and watch them here.

President's Letter: Thank You for the Opportunity to Serve

President's Letter: Thank You for the Opportunity to Serve

Welcome to my last President’s Letter. Since I’m not one for long goodbyes, I’ll keep this brief. Looking back to 2018, I could not have anticipated or even imagined the many twists and turns that would be thrown at our organization! The good news is that we’ve survived, and in many instances thrived, during that time. I’ll let the critics hash out the absolute and relative success we’ve had. Or, you and I can hash it out at our next “in person” Symposium, whenever that may be. I would welcome seeing you then, and having that discussion! Next, I would like to say thank you for the opportunity to serve the Association. It has been an honor. Please know that I am grateful to each and every one of you that I have had the pleasure to work with over the past three years as President. That would include our Board members,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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The CMT Historical Treasure Trove

The CMT Historical Treasure Trove

I was not working at Lowry Research for very long when tragedy struck the firm. The owner, Joffre LeFevre, and son-in-law of the late Paul Desmond, the firm’s former President, passed away at a fairly young age. While we continued to provide research to clients, the family knew that they did not want to carry on. They started to look for a buyer. As the process unfolded, the Florida offices were downsized and that meant cleaning out years of accumulated materials, much of it of great interest to the CMT Association. We were also the “repository” for materials from Morgan Stanley and the legendary Bill Doane of Fidelity. I could not wait to dive into the collection, as I did not know it was even there before. The problem was that I was already home in New York, thanks to the pandemic. Joffre’s father, Jacques LeFavre, an industry outsider, stepped in to

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Why Is It So Difficult for Most People to Make Money in the Market?

Why Is It So Difficult for Most People to Make Money in the Market?

This article originally ran in November 1997 edition of Technically Speaking. Imagine playing a game for money in which marbles are drawn out of a bag and then replaced. Sixty percent of the marbles are white. If one of the white marbles is drawn out, you win whatever you risked. The other forty percent are blue. If one of the blue marbles is drawn, then you lose whatever you risked. This game has an expectancy of 20 cents. That is, over a large number of trials, you’ll make 20 cents for every dollar you risk. That means it’s much better than any game you’ll ever play in Las Vegas. But what percentage of the people who play it make money? I have introduced this game numerous times in talks that I’ve given and at seminars and conferences. Typically, we don’t play for real money, but the winner (i.e., the person who ends

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

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Mumbai Chapter Meeting Review

Mumbai Chapter Meeting Review

The Mumbai Chapter meeting was held virtually on Saturday, May 15, 2021 with six distinguished speakers: Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP – Scott is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM. Scott is also President of the Global Board of Directors, CMT Association. Tim Hayes, CMT – Ned Davis Research Chief Global Investment Strategist. Alvin Kressler – CEO and Executive Director of CMT Association Mohit Handa, CMT – Technical Research Analyst with Beroe Consulting Pvt. Ltd. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA — Founder and Independent Technical Research Analyst, Gemstone Equity Research and Advisory Services. Kush Ghodasara – Luv-Kush Finserve, a Gujarat Based Financial service house which deals into Research of Equity markets, Research Advisory and Financial Planning consultancy. The opening remarks by Scott Richter mentioned the importance and relevance of Technical Analysis in the investment decision-making process. His advice to the professionals was to create a habit of continuous learning; considering this,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Foram Chheda, CMT

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Join us at the European Summit: Global Themes for A Changing World

Join us at the European Summit: Global Themes for A Changing World

Join us at the 2021 European Summit on July 1 & 2. Featuring a slate of global thinkers and leading analysts, the European Summit is uniquely adapted to a digital-first experience. The Summit will take place fully online, and will encompass global equity markets as well as key global indices, Digital and Fiat currencies, Treasury yields and rates as they impact other asset classes, and the Commodities space. Expect to leave with cutting edge tools, trading strategies and actionable insights to improve your investment decisions. Registration Information Non-Member standard registration: $100 Members and Students (including CMT Program Candidates): FREE Please take note that the recordings will be available to all registrants on the CMT Conferences Digital Event Guide platform until August 2, 2021. Times (GMT) 10:00 AM – 12:30 PM GMT 2:00 PM – 4:30 PM GMT Confirmed Speakers Tim Hayes, CMT, CFA – Ned Davis Research Alejandra Grindal – Ned Davis Research Steven Goldstein – AlphaRCubed Greg King, CFA – Osprey Funds JC

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

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Virtual Event: Upcoming Webcast With NeuraVest

Virtual Event: Upcoming Webcast With NeuraVest

The CMT Association is excited to announce that JP Gravitt and Eric Davidson, CMT will be joining the Educational Web Series next week, June 23rd at 8AM ET. JP and Eric will present on Using Alternative Data to Produce Superior Investment Results. They will discuss how generating alpha as a portfolio manager requires moving beyond traditional fundamental and pricing data. Unstructured and semi-structured information sources, also known as alternative data, can be incorporated with traditional inputs to best model market moving events and cause effect relationships; this presentation will cover the best ways to apply this type of data. JP Gravitt is the Head of Data and Strategy at Neuravest Research. As Head of Data and Strategy, Gravitt heads the research and data team to help bring on various alternative and traditional data sets while determining the utility of those sets on a standalone basis, as well as in concert with other

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Emily E.A. Meyer

Emily E.A. Meyer

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New Episode of Fill the Gap Podcast

New Episode of Fill the Gap Podcast

The Godfather of Technical Analysis, Ralph Acampora, CMT joins Fill the Gap for a conversation about the history of markets, and market technicians. As the co-founder of the “MTA” in the late 1960s, Ralph’s passion for the discipline of technical market analysis has not waned a bit in his 50-year career on Wall Street. Discussing long-term secular market trends and periods of extended market expansion, Ralph shares that we may be in a fifth “Mega Market” cycle. Comparing historical periods of great economic expansion, Ralph coined the term to describe post-war market rallies in his book “The Fourth Mega Market” which he penned in the 1990s.  As the world slowly begins to emerge from the COVID pandemic, the massive injection of funding for research to fight the virus will likely be commercialized in the period ahead, helping extend a global bull market over the coming years. Ralph opens up about his lifelong passion

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

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CMT Photo Archive

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in picture, just to offer a glimpse into our past, and in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future. If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or after work get-togethers please submit them (in digital form, if possible) and include the date, location, and people in the photo. Better yet, if you remember presentations or topics of conversation that relevant to the current markets, let us know. There’s nothing like revisiting market history as it relates to the current environment. CMT Past Presidents These photos were extracted from the new stash of old newsletters we just acquired. Each person below was President of the Association but the dates of the photos are not necessarily during their tenure. If you ask me, they all look even better today. Phil Roth, CMT 1989 Robert Prechter, Jr. 1990 Bruce Kamich, CMT 1992 Ken Tower, CMT 1992

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Gustavo Gallardo, CMT, Subgerente de Sales and Trading at FYNSA Vineet Sood, CFA, CMT, Chief Operating Officer at Omkara capital Pvt Ltd Krunal Desai, Financial Planning Analyst at Citi Sajjad Shariff, MBA, CMT, CSM, SA SAFe, CMMI, Release Train Engineer at TISTA Science and Technology Corporation Joshua I Wilson, CMT, Partner at Acruence Capital Manav Chopra, CMT, Vice President- Institution Technical Research at Edelweiss Financial Services Limited Justin Davidson, Portfolio Manager at Anchor Capital CMT Program Now that the June 2021 test administration is over, many candidates are wondering when and how they will receive their exam results. Reviewing, finalizing, and communicating exam results may take up to eight weeks from the end of the testing period. CMT Level I and II results will be emailed to candidates by Prometric. CMT Level III results will arrive in an email from the CMT

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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