Technically Speaking, October 2014

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We have a variety of articles for you to consider this month. We start with a look back.  Many of us forget that trading software is relatively new and in the first article, one of the pioneers in the development of trading software, Louis Mendelsohn, provides insights into the evolution of software and technical analysis. We are also reprinting some of Lou’s work from the 1990’s which detail problems the financial industry still faces today.

We then look at volatility using articles that rely more on the common VIX indicator including the thoughts of three Federal Reserve economists. Other articles provide insights into the state of the markets and work being done by MTA members and chapters around the world.

MTA member, Stella Osoba, CMT, published “Women on Wall Street” on Traders Planet. The article provides valuable career advice for both individuals breaking into the field and those in established positions. The article highlights ten valuable career tips for those seeking a job or for those looking to advance within their current position. You can read the whole article at http://go.mta.org/12184

After reading that article, please let us know if you think it would be beneficial to include content similar to that in Technically Speaking. You can always reach us at editor@mta.org.

Sincerely,
Michael Carr

What's Inside...

THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE CATALYZING FORCE

Evolution is about change… adaption… survival. For a thing to evolve, though, it needs a catalyst – an environmental shift...

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BROADENING THE SCOPE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE IMPORTANCE OF AN INTERMARKET PERSPECTIVE

Editor’s note: this was originally published in the March 2001 issue of Technically Speaking.

With the proliferation of microcomputers and...

Read More

VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE

Editor’s note: This was originally published by Crestmont Research (www.CrestmontResearch.com) and is reprinted with permission.

Who or what is rocking...

Read More

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PRIOR PERIODS OF LOW VOLATILITY

Editor’s note: This was originally posted at the New York Federal Reserve’s Liberty Street Economics, a site that “features insight...

Read More

CONTRARY OPINION FORUM

Editor’s note: Susan recently attended the Contrary Opinion Forum, an annual meeting sponsored by Fraser Advisors that “centers around the...

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SUMMARY OF MTA SINGAPORE CHAPTER MEETING

The MTA Singapore Chapter Meeting was honored to host Alex Siew, Dr Sun, and Caner Seren Varol, CMT, CFA, ERP...

Read More

INTERVIEW WITH GREGORY HARMON, CMT, CFA

How would you describe your job?

I don’t know that I really have a job in the sense that many...

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SUMMARY OF THE CHICAGO MTA CHAPTER EVENT

Ralph Acampora is an excellent lecturer and it was no surprise that he drew a large crowd to the Chicago...

Read More

REMEMBERING 1995 DOW AWARD WINNER WILLIAM X. SCHEINMAN

William X. Scheinman received the Charles H. Dow Award in 1995 for his paper, Information, Time and Risk. In his...

Read More

U.S. SECTOR ETF PORTFOLIO

Editor’s note: This was originally published on September 29, 2014 at WWW.JBECKINVESTMENTS.COM and is reprinted with permission.

ETF selection has...

Read More

WINANS LEGACY STOCK INDEX (WILSI)

The Winans Legacy Stock Index (WILSI) is an unweighted composite of...

Read More

CHART OF THE MONTH

Other Winans Indexes include the Winans Real Estate Index™ (WIREI) and the Winans Preferred Stock Index® (WIPSI). The data is...

Read More

THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE CATALYZING FORCE

Evolution is about change… adaption… survival. For a thing to evolve, though, it needs a catalyst – an environmental shift of a substantial magnitude or a subtle mutation – that forces change to occur.

In the late 1970s, the magnitude of the newly introduced personal computer (PC) caused an environmental shift that forced change upon the world. Adapt or perish was the new reality...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Brandon Jones

Brandon Jones is an active trader and writer. He has worked with Lou Mendelsohn’s innovations for many years.

BROADENING THE SCOPE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE IMPORTANCE OF AN INTERMARKET PERSPECTIVE

Editor’s note: this was originally published in the March 2001 issue of Technically Speaking.

With the proliferation of microcomputers and trading software over the past two decades, there has been a surge of interest by futures and equities traders in applying technical analysis to their trading decisions. Concurrently, a transformation has been underway, due in part to advancements in global telecommunications and information technologies,...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Louis B. Mendelsohn

VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE

Editor’s note: This was originally published by Crestmont Research (www.CrestmontResearch.com) and is reprinted with permission.

Who or what is rocking the boat? Is the current level of volatility “normal” or is it extreme in either direction? The purpose of this presentation is to graphically put volatility into historical perspective. This report will be updated periodically as volatility is just too volatile to be ignored.

...
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ed Easterling

Ed Easterling is the author of Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights and the award-winning Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles. He is currently president of an investment management and research firm. In addition, he previously served as an adjunct professor...

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PRIOR PERIODS OF LOW VOLATILITY

Editor’s note: This was originally posted at the New York Federal Reserve’s Liberty Street Economics, a site that “features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking.”

Volatility, a measure of how much financial markets are fluctuating, has been near its record low in many asset classes.  Over the last few decades, there have been only two other...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Fernando Duarte

Fernando Duarte is an economist in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group. 

Juan Navarro-Staicos

Juan Navarro-Staicos is a financial markets analyst in the Bank’s Markets Group.

Carlo Rosa

Carlo Rosa is an economist in the Bank’s Markets Group.

CONTRARY OPINION FORUM

Editor’s note: Susan recently attended the Contrary Opinion Forum, an annual meeting sponsored by Fraser Advisors that “centers around the idea of learning to think for yourself in solving practical investment problems.”

It was a small but quality crowd. Some spouses come, but typically do not stay past one presentation, and look for something else to do. Alas, their partners are clued to the...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Susan Berger

Susan Berger worked with John Magee from 1968 until his retirement and then worked as a technical analyst at Fidelity Investments. She now provides independent research and additional information can be found at http://susanbergerstocks.com/.

SUMMARY OF MTA SINGAPORE CHAPTER MEETING

The MTA Singapore Chapter Meeting was honored to host Alex Siew, Dr Sun, and Caner Seren Varol, CMT, CFA, ERP at the September 30th, 2014. There were over 110 market professionals and investors who attended the presentation making it a great success for this young and growing chapter.

Contributor(s)

Jamie Coutts, CMT, CFTe

Jamie  Coutts, CMT, CFTe is a crypto market analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and is responsible for creating crypto market structure, asset, sector and thematic analysis content for clients. He takes a multi-disciplinary approach to his analysis of this emergent asset class, combining...

INTERVIEW WITH GREGORY HARMON, CMT, CFA

How would you describe your job?

I don’t know that I really have a job in the sense that many see it. I have two small businesses that require an awful lot of my time. It is more a lifestyle then a job. I am a Partner and CIO at Presidium Capital, a firm where, with my two other partners, we manage separate accounts...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Greg Harmon, CMT

Gregory W. Harmon, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the President and Founder of Dragonfly Capital Management, LLC, a company that provides daily technical analysis of securities markets and consulting services to the marketplace. Greg was previously the CIO...

Amber Hestla-Barnhart

Bio coming soon.

SUMMARY OF THE CHICAGO MTA CHAPTER EVENT

Ralph Acampora is an excellent lecturer and it was no surprise that he drew a large crowd to the Chicago chapter meeting last month. He gave us a rich perspective of what Wall Street was like 40 years ago, how he and a close friend and colleague cofounded the Market Technician Association, and most importantly the need of serious recognition for Technical Analysis or,...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Brian Stoner, CMT, CFA

Brian Stoner, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a futures account broker at NinjaTrader Group, LLC. Brian started his career in the financial industry as a stockbroker in the mid 90’s and spent the better part of twelve years...

REMEMBERING 1995 DOW AWARD WINNER WILLIAM X. SCHEINMAN

William X. Scheinman received the Charles H. Dow Award in 1995 for his paper, Information, Time and Risk. In his paper, William outlined the core principals of Dow Theory and concepts by Edson H. Gould, and applied the ideas to the market.  Dow Theory was combined with Gould’s resistance lines, unit measurement and the rule of three. His Dow Award winning paper provides detail...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

U.S. SECTOR ETF PORTFOLIO

Editor’s note: This was originally published on September 29, 2014 at WWW.JBECKINVESTMENTS.COM and is reprinted with permission.

ETF selection has been based upon a traditional approach to ETF research to incorporate the best suited benchmark domestic sector ETFs in a portfolio designed to outperform the overall US equities market. The analysis therein uses a classical technical approach to uncover trends, patterns, relative strength leaders,...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jonathan Beck

Jonathan Beck brings over 10 years of buy/sell-side equity research experience to the table at J. Beck investments. He has previously spent more than half of his career working exclusively as a technical analyst on one of the most well respected technical...

WINANS LEGACY STOCK INDEX (WILSI)

The Winans Legacy Stock Index (WILSI) is an unweighted composite of approximately 110 common stocks (from diverse industry sectors) that have been continuously traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) since 1970 and in continuous operation since 1897 (on average). Since the...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ken Winans, CMT

Ken Winans, CMT President & Founder, Winans Investments For 28 years, Ken Winans, CMT, has conducted groundbreaking financial research within the discipline of technical analysis while serving as a portfolio manager, investment analyst, broker and investor. Ken is the President and Founder...

CHART OF THE MONTH

Other Winans Indexes include the Winans Real Estate Index™ (WIREI) and the Winans Preferred Stock Index® (WIPSI). The data is available through Global Financial Data, Metastock or Stockcharts.

The WIREI (Patent Pending 11/670,914) tracks new U.S. home prices since 1830. It’s unique approach rescaled and combined several well know government studies of U.S. new home prices into a continuous data set without the “gapping”...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)