Technically Speaking, March 2020

Dear Members, 

For more than 50 years, the CMT Association has existed to advance the discipline of technical analysis. This core value established by our founders guides us as we face the difficult challenge of responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19), which the World Health Organization has declared a global pandemic. 

Our hearts and thoughts go out to the families who have been directly affected by this unprecedented event and we appreciate the healthcare workers, local communities, and governments around the world who are on the front line working to contain this coronavirus. We also applaud all CMT Members engaged in unselfish acts: caring for family and friends; supporting co-workers and colleagues; aiding those in our communities without the privilege to work remotely or lean on savings to fill their pantries 

As the situation grows, the CMT Association has also been impacted. In the interest and health of our members, the Board of Directors decided on March 14th to postpone the upcoming 47th Symposium. The decision was not make lightly, but we know that the event will come back stronger in the years to come. The Association is closely monitoring the pandemic with an eye on the CMT Program. While it has not been immediately impacted, we are in close contact with Prometric to make sure that we have all the current information.

Compounding the challenges of disrupted travel, uncertain business planning and clear public health threats, we know that all our members are shouldering responsibilities for firms and clients trying to navigate tumultuous and uniquely volatile market behavior. So, in the spirit in which the CMT Association was first forged 50 years ago, lean on us for the resources you need to get through this difficult period. Here are a few quick resources you can access from anywhere. 

Resources

1. Journal of Technical Analysis – 70 issues over 40+ years of research by practitioners for practitioners.  

2. Weekly Webinars –  View the schedule of upcoming live digital presentations 

    • Watch A 2020 Market Roadmap by Todd Sohn, CMT of Strategas, presented on Feb 19th here  

3. CMT Youtube Channel – share video presentations, podcast interviews and other free content with your network here 

4. CMT on Twitter – Converse with members and stay current with the latest market commentary from CMT charterholders all over the world at https://twitter.com/cmtassociation 

Community Leadership

Whether you reside in Mumbai, Milwaukee, or anywhere in between, we all have some difficult times aheadWhile it is challenging to resist getting swept up in the media frenzy or falling victim to our own emotional response to sharp losses and client frustrations, remember that this is a time when the industry is counting on our community to bring calm rational perspectives and disciplined guidance. It is on you to be the leader now. Here’s how you can help in the short-term: 

1. Speak to the media, and let us know when that happens so we can amplify that through our social media networks.  

2. Share resources with colleagues at your firm. Send them links to articles or archived videos at www.staging.cmtassociation.org  

Long-Term Relevancy

We are trading through what will be an incredible case study in the future. Here’s how you can leverage this for your career and the global recognition of the CMT Charter.

1. Submit your research to the Charles H. Dow Award competition. Use this market environment to track and monitor your strategies. Share your work and help us all advance the discipline of technical analysis. 

2. Advocate within your firm. Does your employer support ongoing professional development? Can all CMT charterholders use the designation on business cards and research reports? Do they have a learning & development team we can speak with about the value we bring to employees and the firm’s clients? Make your suggestions or introductions to Alvin, Tyler, or Joel – @cmtassociation.org. 

3. Do your colleagues or institutional clients want to improve their professional practice? Introduce them to the CMT Program. 

As we have often been told, hope is not an investment strategy. Hope does not lie in a rate cut or a stimulus package. It comes from calm leaders who are experts in their field sharing objective facts and honest recommendations. CMT Association members have a responsibility to the industry right now. Please send your thoughts and recommendations on how you are taking action and how we can engage deeply in that work with you right now, and for the weeks and months to come. 

On behalf of all CMT Members and staff around the world, we wish you and your families health and safety in the weeks and months ahead 

Sincerely, 

The CMT Association Board of Directors  

What's Inside...

Letter from the Editor

I don’t think there is much need to recap the events that are unfolding in the stock and bond markets...

Read More

President’s Letter

And the Award Winner is …

I want to convey heartfelt congratulations to our 2020 CMT Award Winners! Each has...

Read More

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies did a video conference presentation for the Minnesota chapter on February 18, 2020.  Prior to...

Read More

History of Wall Street - Part 6 of a Periodic Series

This is the sixth and final installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The...

Read More

Member Interview with Larry Berman

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I started in sales, then transitioned to back office jobs in the investment...

Read More

Spread the Joy, Hire Local

You worked hard to build your business and now it is time to beef up your staff. You could cast...

Read More

Journal of Technical Analysis, Issue 70 Now Available

The CMT Association is excited to relaunch the Journal of Technical Analysis under the editorial guidance of Sergio Santamaria....

Read More

Members in the Media

Market turbulence in the past four weeks has drawn commentary, speculation and advice from several CMT charterholders who...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Lou...
Read More

Letter from the Editor

I don’t think there is much need to recap the events that are unfolding in the stock and bond markets (oil, too). And it would not make much sense, either, because any one of these asset classes could either blow up or melt up in between this writing and its publication (I am writing this Saturday, March 7).

You saw stocks basically collapse on the “excuse” of a possible pandemic. I say excuse because we all know that January was a bit extended, over this and under that. You fill in your own blanks.

This is not to say that the effects of the virus will not affect the economy for quite some time. And, of course, there is no sugarcoating the human toll, either.

And then there are bonds. The last trading day before I wrote this saw a monster gap up after a monster rally to historically low yields with an emergency rate cut by the Fed. You cannot make this stuff up.

I solicited stories from my social media about, “How I survived the Crash of the Last Week of February, 2020.”  No contributors. I suppose everyone was not convinced they actually survived, or were too busy attending to their blowing-up customer lines. But when all of this goes into the history books, I’d still like to know what everyone did to survive – or thrive – during the most turbulent few weeks.

So bandage your wounds, count your remaining clients and get back on the horse. Big moves mean big opportunities, so clear your head, keep calm, wash your hands and make a plan.

This month, the organization was supposed to be putting the finishing touches on the 47th Annual Symposium, which has now been unfortunately postponed until 2021. CMT President Scott Richter honors this year’s award winners in his remarks here. And we’ve got more of the good stuff we’ve been running, including the final installment of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series. There is another chapter meeting review from Minnesota, far and away the best chapter. Other chapters, we’re waiting for you.

This month’s member interview is with Larry Berman, who has the sole distinction of presiding over both the U.S. and Canadian technical societies.

Aside from the regular member news, we’ve got an appeal to everyone to consider hiring members. After all, we know they have certain training and ethics. Need we say more?

Unfortunately, two feature articles we planned were put back on the shelf. At least one was victim to the market’s action but we hope to get them both published here in the coming months.  Wouldn’t YOU like to see YOUR name on a published article here? What better way to build a portfolio of your knowledge? That’s how I did it. You can, too.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

President’s Letter

And the Award Winner is …

I want to convey heartfelt congratulations to our 2020 CMT Award Winners! Each has left a positive impact on the CMT Association, the study of technical analysis and markets, or both.

So, without further delay, let me share this good news with you. Our winners are:

CMT Association Annual Award Recipient 2020 – Tom DeMark

Established in 1974, the Annual Award recognizes a career that includes a great deal of research and contributions to the discipline of technical analysis. The award is an inspiration for many and has recognized dozens of technicians for their outstanding accomplishments in the field.

Many of you may know Tom through his DeMark indicators, which help in anticipating price behavior for markets and securities. Others know him for his 50 years of research in the field of technical analysis and price behavior. His firm, DeMark Analytics, is devoted to successfully timing the markets at an institutional level. He, his team, and his body of work are respected globally. Kudos Tom for your dedication and innovative research!

CMT Association Service Award Recipient 2020 – Ken Tower, CMT

The Service Award recognizes volunteers and staff that drive the advancement of technical analysis. Ken has put in countless hours for our organization. Ken, who is also a past president, has been a strong advocate for the CMT Program for nearly 30 years. He also has the honor of being part of the team that convinced FINRA to accept successful completion of the CMT exam levels I and II as a Series 86 exemption. Kudos Ken; well deserved!

CMT Association Recognition Award 2020 – Yale Hirsch

The Recognition Award recognizes meaningful contributions and advocacy within the investment industry. Yale Hirsch conceived of the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968. The goal was to provide strategic technical information to investors. Decades later, it remains a well-respected and widely referenced investment resource for today’s analysts and traders. The Almanac is informative and always fresh with new insights and guidance relative to the markets. Congrats Yale – thanks for making the Almanac profitable and fun!

CMT Association Memorial Award 2020 – Justin Mamis (d. 2019)

The legacy of Justin Mamis is recognized with this year’s Memorial Award, to commemorate the decades he spent writing several well-regarded technical analysis books as well as his weekly research newsletter. Justin’s When to Sell, followed by How to Buy and The Nature of Risk helped educate a generation of analysts, teaching that a carefully selected assortment of indicators should be used to delineate tendencies, reveal shifts, identify trends, and make positioning decisions. If you haven’t read Justin’s books, you should! The security names have changed, but the lessons are timeless. Thank you for blessing us with your work and insights.

CMT Association Dow Award 2020 – Chris Cain, CMT and Larry Connors

Congratulations to our Dow Award winners Chris Cain, CMT and Larry Connors regarding their work entitled Quantamentals – Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis in a Quantitative Framework for Better Investment Results. This work was very interesting and well done. It can be appreciated by technicians, quants, and fundamental analysts too!

The Quantamentals work demonstrated that a combination of investment styles (including fundamental and technical analysis) within a quantitative, rules-based framework led to greatly improved investment performance and risk management.

The Dow Award has been given since 1994 and honors excellence and creativity in technical analysis. When we’re able to meet in person again, we look forward to getting an update on the strategy with the market events since the initial research! Again, congratulations! Nicely done and well documented.

Until then, prosper in these volatile markets! Be bold, like our award winners.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies did a video conference presentation for the Minnesota chapter on February 18, 2020.  Prior to founding Fairlead Strategies, LLC, Katie was Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners.  Some context around her visit: on February 18th, the S&P 500 was near its peak and it fell by more than 10% over the next 10 days.

She noted on Feb. 18th that the S&P 500 was in an uptrend and within a minor breakout to new highs.  Stochastics were overbought and short- term momentum was up.  Her measured move target from the 2019 S&P 500 chart was just under 3500.  She highlighted underperformance in equal-weighted benchmarks and the Russell 2000, but she was seeing some countertrend buy signals in the Russell 2000.

Katie takes a “top-down” approach to technical analysis.  She starts by examining macro influences, including major indexes, interest rates, commodities, etc.  After that she looks at a lot of individual charts, primarily in U.S. equities.  She likes to spot stocks that are acting out of line with their macro influences.

Katie places a lot of value in support and resistance levels as defined by 200-day and other moving averages, peaks/troughs on the charts, Fibonacci retracements, and trendlines.  She likes indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud for identifying support and resistance, particularly for Asian markets.  She feels Ichimoku Cloud support and resistance levels work better in Asia due to their broad usage there.  Another tool she uses for support and resistance are Fibonacci (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%) retracements) and the golden ratio of .618.

She splits her technical indicators into three groups: trend-following, overbought/oversold, and relative strength.  Trend following indicators include moving averages, MACD, and TMAP.  For overbought/oversold indicators, she uses Stochastics, RSI, and DeMark indicators such as TD Sequential(R), TD Setup, and TD Countdown.  TD Sequential is based on running counts of price bars to gauge trend exhaustion.  For relative strength, she likes comparative ratios and relative rotation graphs.

Relative rotation graphs have normalized relative strength ratios on the X-axis vs. momentum on the Y-axis.  They show the history of the two variables as a comet trajectory on the graph.

Market internals are lowest on her list.  She follows volume, breadth (advances/declines, percent overbought/oversold), leadership (new highs/lows), and sentiment.  Sentiment indicators she likes include CNN’s Fear and Greed index, the VIX, and the AAII sentiment survey.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

Mahesh Johari is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area. He holds degress in mathematics and economics from the University of Illinois and the University of Arizona.

History of Wall Street - Part 6 of a Periodic Series

This is the sixth and final installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000.

The history of Wall Street is incomplete without a brief discussion of money. Let’s dig right in.

When the English colonists landed, they had very little money with them, having spent what they had on supplies for the long voyage.  This, added to England’s insistence that the colonies not be allowed to mint currency, caused an almost exclusive reliance on the barter system for needed goods and services.  For example, a man may want a tiny donkey but the owner, not wishing to give away his tiny donkey, may say to the man, “You may have my tiny donkey if I can have your cow.  After all, you won’t need it anymore.”

Anyway, while using a cow for currency may have been fashionable, it had its drawbacks.  If you dealt with someone who didn’t need your cow you were out of luck and lugging the beast about with you all the day was tiresome, at best.  What was needed, then, was some universally accepted, conveniently packaged currency.  So, in 1619, the Virginia legislature adopted tobacco as just that currency.  In fact, the term “cash crop” comes from the use of tobacco as money.

Now using tobacco as currency was indeed better than barter, but it wasn’t problem-free either.  Everyone with a desire for wealth discovered that prosperity lay at their feet: money might not grow on trees, but with some care one could coax it from the ground!  Soon, Virginians began planting as much tobacco as they could, but this caused two problems: overuse of the soil, leading to land erosion, and inflation, brought on by too much tobacco and too little food.  Too little food? That’s right.  In their haste to plant tobacco, farmers neglected to plant corn, wheat, and other staple crops.  The legislature had no choice but to find another option, so in 1645, they abandoned tobacco in favor of nails.

Nails were the perfect choice.  The labor needed to manufacture them was constant, thus fixing their value.  Not everyone could make nails, reducing the chance of inflation.  And they were convenient!  Unfortunately, this idea wasn’t without drawbacks either.  When the resale value of existing homes became less than the value of the nails needed to build new ones, colonists began burning down their own houses to harvest the nails.  This created a fire hazard, prompting the Virginia legislature once again to change the currency structure.  This time, the choice was bullets.

I can only imagine what a curiosity colonial Virginia must have been to the Native Americans.  Here they are, living peacefully for hundreds of years, only to have the new neighbors move in, smoke something they’ve planted in the back yard and then burn down the neighborhood because they’re poor.  You can just hear the discussion in the tribal lodges.

The ongoing quest for a stable currency finally led the colonists to adopt the Mexican dollar and Wampum as the only preferred methods of payment.  One string of Wampum, made of the hearts of periwinkle shells strung together in eight-foot lengths, was equal to one Mexican Dollar.  An eight-foot string of Wampum was often broken into one-foot pieces (called a ‘bit’, as in ‘Shave and a Haircut, Two Bits’) and used when change for the dollar was needed.  Using Wampum not only made commerce simpler but also inadvertently set up one of Wall Street’s oldest customs.  A one-foot string of Wampum, representing 1/8th of a dollar was soon established as the smallest increment of currency.  Therefore, when stocks began trading on the New York waterfront in 1792, the custom of bidding stocks in increments of 1/8 was established and continued until nearly the end of the 20th century.

One final word about the currency of the time.  On the back of the Mexican Dollar were two pillars around which were wound scrolls representing Law and Authority.  That symbol, two pillars and a scroll, was later simplified and became our dollar sign:  $.  It wasn’t until the advent of the typewriter that the second pillar was removed to accommodate space.

Contributor(s)

Bruno DiGiorgi

Member Interview with Larry Berman

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I started in sales, then transitioned to back office jobs in the investment industry for the first eight years of my career. From there, I was Chief Technical Analyst CIBC World Markets for 12 years. And for the past 13 years, I’ve been a portfolio manager at my firm ETF Capital Management, managing $1.5 billion.

How did you get there?

Hard work. I did the then-MTA’s Internship program in 1994, then got involved with the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysts), the CMT Association, and IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts). I was President of the CSTA from 1998-2000 and President of the CMT Association from 2009-2010.

Networking played a big part in my career. My formal schooling was a base. As you know, we need to build on a base before it breaks out. The CMT Association was a giant base for my career.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

In 1988, Bob French got me looking at point and figure charts. I sold mutual funds with Bob, an ex-CBOT bond trader, in one of my first industry jobs. Another mentor was Peter Martin, head of research at CIBC World Markets. He gave me my first big sell side job with just enough rope to hang myself. While I might have come close a few times, I was still able to take the CFA and CMT exams and make real good use of the designations. I was the first in Canada to have both. Finally, meeting Ralph Acampora during my internship in 1994 was also fortunate, as he had always been a valuable influencer.

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

I’ve always liked the practical application of TA from Dr. Alex Elder but it was really the behavioral work of Daniel Kahneman that shaped my past 20 years or so. It helped me go from being an analyst to a portfolio manager, which, as you know, are as different as night and day. Everything I read today has something to do with understanding the behavioral decision and its impact.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

I love golf and ice hockey, with yoga and meditation for life balance as I get older. I definitely should have done more of that 35 years ago! Learning is also big for me, and I read constantly. Lately, however, I’ve added audio books to maximize my exercise time. I try to walk an hour per day. It’s not a good day if I don’t learn something new. Your brain is your most important organ to exercise.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

Learning was a big part of it, for sure and networking was also a huge benefit but the CMT designation was the primary reason. The vast majority of people I’ve met over the years via the CMT Association are great people. It is nice to see so many still attend the annual symposium, which seems to be the only reason I get to New York these days.

What it the most useful benefit of membership for you?

Once the CMT designation is achieved, I think the biggest benefit is networking. I can call up or email just about anyone and have a professional discussion on any market topic. That has opened many doors, especially when dropping Ralph’s name. It only closed one door, as far as I can recall.

Contributor(s)

Larry M. Berman, CMT, CTA, CFA

Larry M. Berman appears weekly on BNN’s Berman’s Call where he blends fundamentals with expert technical analysis to help Bloomberg viewers uncover opportunities in the marketplace. He is a Co-Founder of ETF Capital Management and The Independent Investor Institute — an organization...

Spread the Joy, Hire Local

You worked hard to build your business and now it is time to beef up your staff. You could cast your hiring net far and wide, making use of online services and paying them big fees.

Or you could hire local.

No, not your next door neighbor. Rather, you could first look within the ranks of the CMT Association. Everyone is already vetted for their interest in technical analysis and commitment to expanding their knowledge. And our membership has all skill – and salary – levels represented, from fresh out of school, yet eager, rookies, to the author of your favorite textbook on TA.

If you think some of the more experienced members would not be interested in contract work, think again. Many are running their own portfolios or already living the freelance life. I can tell you that even during my stint with a major publication, I always had a few side jobs to supplement that income. As long as there are no conflicts of interest, everybody wins!

By the way, you don’t have to be a hiring manager. You could be looking for a partner to start a newsletter or website. Or maybe you need a statistics guru, or a sales person who can talk the language.

So, the next time you need full time, part time or contract help, or even advice, why not place a free ad in Technically Speaking? Free is good, but often, you get what you pay for. Hiring a fellow CMT Association member is even better.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Journal of Technical Analysis, Issue 70 Now Available

The CMT Association is excited to relaunch the Journal of Technical Analysis under the editorial guidance of Sergio Santamaria. Historically, the JoTA has been the academic publishing outlet of the CMT Association, advancing the knowledge and understanding of technical analysis through the curation of well-crafted and high-quality research.

While the 70th Issue recognizes the continuity of a decades-long tradition of publication, it also celebrates our series of Charles H. Dow Award winners from 2016-2020. Featuring five winning Dow Award submissions as well as several original research articles, Issue 70 encompasses topics ranging from ranked asset allocation models to investor sentiment and use of the relative strength index for trend following and momentum.

In this time of market volatility, readers will find insightful articles tackling topics specifically tailored to forecasting market volatility. Use the research created by your industry peers as a tool to navigate the ongoing, unprecedented black swan event.

The success of JoTA depends upon the time and commitment of the authors and the Journal Committee, who work to expand our understanding of the market while fueling innovation and new applications of our discipline. The production of each issue is a complex process; we couldn’t do it without the hard work of our dedicated volunteers and diligent authors.

If you are interested in submitting research for the 71st Issue of the Journal of Technical Analysis, or would like to serve as an editor on the Journal Committee, please contact Journal@cmtassociation.org.

Contributor(s)

Emily E.A. Meyer

Emily Elizabeth-Anne Meyer is the Head of Marketing – Americas at FlexTrade. She served as the Director of Marketing for the CMT Association until 2021.

Members in the Media

Market turbulence in the past four weeks has drawn commentary, speculation and advice from several CMT charterholders who have been featured in a variety of news outlets around the country. The month of March so far has seen a large portion of our membership emerge as knowledgeable sources of technical information, sought as columnists, commentators, and general voices of reason regarding technical market action.

Below, we’ve rounded up more than a dozen CMT charterholders who were featured in the news recently. You can read what each analyst has to say by clicking on the headline next to their name. 

Unrelated to the market turmoil, Buff Dormeier was named a “Best in State” wealth advisor by Forbes this quarter: Kingsview Partners Advisor Ranked Best In State Wealth Advisor By Forbes

If you are featured in a major news outlet, or if you publish TA insight that becomes widely quoted, feel free to tag us in a social media post about your analysis! You can also send an email to news@cmtassociation.org.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

Marianna Tessello served as the CMT Association’s digital producer from 2018 until 2021. She was responsible for the management of most of the association’s front-end digital assets during that time, including social media production, current website information and updates, and various communication...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Lou Mercer, CMT, Regional Investment Strategist – Northern California at Charles Schwab
  • Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, Financial Writer at Zmansmoney.com
  • Graeme Trenerry, Director of FP&A Merchant and Payments at SunTrust
  • Mahmoud Abou-Hussein, CMT Head of Equity Trading at Arab African Investment Management (AAIM)
  • Raphael Grieco, CMT, FRM, Podcaster at Runway Series, the podcast by UPCOMINGVC

CMT

Standard Registration for the CMT Exams started on February 25th and will end on April 20, 2020.  Fees during standard registration are listed on the website under CMT Program/Frequently Asked Questions/Program Fees.  Candidates for the CMT exams can register as a member or non-member.

If you are taking the Level III exam this June, we recommend that you register as an affiliate member so that you can apply for the Professional Member Status after completing the exam.  You must be an affiliate member when applying for the CMT designation.

If you passed the December 2019 CMT Level III exam and have the necessary three years of professional work experience, don’t forget to apply for the Professional Member status.

If you have any questions about the Professional Membership process, please forward your questions to admin@cmtassociation.org

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in February 2020.

  • James Burke
  • Rafael Rojas Carranza
  • Yi Te Cheng
  • Jeff Husak
  • Jason Mashas
  • James Steven Orr
  • Matthew Parks
  • Thaddeus Pollock
  • Rashmi Shastry
  • Kevin Smith

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.