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Technically Speaking, December 2020

With December now here, the world is eager to kiss 2020 goodbye, and likely, good riddance. It was a tough year for many people as they lost their jobs, their dreams and even their loved ones. Many of us in the Association are privileged, because we work in an industry that thankfully stayed open for business, even if the markets tanked in a once-in-a-generation way. As a metaphor for the real world, 401-ks are back at new highs as the light at the end of the tunnel is shining brightly. Let’s just jump right into the content of this month’s newsletter. We start with an article excerpted from Proactive Advisor Magazine, where technical analysis is offered as a way to enhance risk-adjusted returns. It’s not the center of the piece but it does show that even for fundamentally oriented managers, there is value is what we do. Everyone is a closet technician, it seems. From around the Association, we’ve got chapter meeting reviews from Chicago and Minneapolis. This month’s member interview is with Lane Mendelsohn, President of VantagePoint AI software and a

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

We have an awesome organization! There is a lot of value in being a member of the CMT Association, but all of the benefits of membership are not always obvious. Therefore, I’m going to...

Adding Active Management into the Portfolio-Construction Equation

by Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd.

Editor’s note – This is an excerpt of an article that ran in Proactive Advisor Magazine November 2019 (published with permission). It is interesting for us in that it argues that active...

Chicago October Chapter Meeting Review

by Jim Erdmier, CMT

Tom McClellan, who is known for the McClellan oscillator, joined the Chicago CMT chapter on November 5th for our monthly meeting. The most relevant topic that he covered was, as you may have guessed,...

Member Interview with Lane Mendelsohn

by Lane Mendelsohn

Please tell us what you do professionally. I am the President of VantagePoint AI, a trading software company that applies artificial intelligence (specifically neural networks), which my father...

Minneapolis November Chapter Meeting Review

by Jamie Keelin, MBA, CMT

Our featured speaker at the November 2020 meeting was Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity LLC/ He presented his Macro and Market Outlook. Tony applies technical analysis to...

CMT Photo Archive

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in pictures. With shelter-in-place orders reemerging and our transition to online-only member programming, we’d like to offer a glimpse of...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Brennan Basnicki, CFA, CAIA, CMT, Director and Product Specialist at Auspice Capital...

New Educational Content This Month

This month, we’ve added a recent presentation by Leslie Jouflas, CMT to the video archives, as well as a new perspective on risk management with Dean Christians, CMT, and more.

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

We have an awesome organization! There is a lot of value in being a member of the CMT Association, but all of the benefits of membership are not always obvious. Therefore, I’m going to highlight where I’ve found value in being a member.

So, reflecting on the value of the CMT Association to me – a number of observations come to mind:

The first is our camaraderie.   I have had (and will continue to have) great fun with enthusiastic technical analysts from around the world.  Our organization allows those types of relationships to grow.  Whether it was a local meeting, a Symposium, or even something as simple as a phone call – it’s great to have a group to belong and have great times together.  If you haven’t yet been able to capitalize on this value, put a plan in place to build relationships and friendships with other members.

The second is elevated

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Adding Active Management into the Portfolio-Construction Equation

Adding Active Management into the Portfolio-Construction Equation

Editor’s note – This is an excerpt of an article that ran in Proactive Advisor Magazine November 2019 (published with permission). It is interesting for us in that it argues that active management using a multi-strategy approach, which includes market timing, offers better risk-adjusted returns. The following is just a taste on the topic with wide swaths of the paper omitted. Here is the link to the full paper: https://proactiveadvisormagazine.com/adding-active-management-into-the-portfolio-construction-equation/

In Part I of this paper, we applied established asset-allocation methodologies (equal weight, Markowitz, and risk parity) to passive asset-class investments (Lipper mutual fund indexes). In our next step, we apply these same routines to dynamically risk-managed mutual funds. This potentially provides two levels of risk management. The first would be within the “actively” managed funds. The second would be by allocating among the funds.

Advantages

Active management within mutual funds seeks to achieve higher returns and/or less risk. Until the 21st

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd.

Chicago October Chapter Meeting Review

Chicago October Chapter Meeting Review

Tom McClellan, who is known for the McClellan oscillator, joined the Chicago CMT chapter on November 5th for our monthly meeting.

The most relevant topic that he covered was, as you may have guessed, the election. Tom pointed out some interesting facts about the U.S. stock market and its relationship to the presidential cycle. Showing us what he calls his “Rapunzel” chart (because it’s “all over the place”), Tom showed us how from the Presidential election to the midterm, the market is generally flat. Usually in the third year, the market starts to move higher, and then once again slows its ascent as election jitters begin to take hold.

Tom also presented a chart showing how the U.S. stock market performs when there is a new president versus a second-term president. At first, markets outperform for a second-term President. However, during the third year of the Presidential cycle, the market under a

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jim Erdmier, CMT

Member Interview with Lane Mendelsohn

Member Interview with Lane Mendelsohn

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am the President of VantagePoint AI, a trading software company that applies artificial intelligence (specifically neural networks), which my father founded in 1979. As President, I oversee all aspects of the company, including R&D, sales and customer support. I really enjoy collaborating with our Research and Development team.

Before COVID 19, our company sponsored several trading conferences each year for our customers where they were able to share knowledge and benefit from interacting with professional traders who have become experts with our software.

We’ve been recognized as one of the best places to work both locally, statewide, and nationally for over 10 years. This past year, I was singled out by Fortune Magazine as Leader of the Year for leading and growing our team, and for building and maintaining a phenomenal company culture.

How did you get there? School, internships, strategic plan or just luck, parents

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Minneapolis November Chapter Meeting Review

Minneapolis November Chapter Meeting Review

Our featured speaker at the November 2020 meeting was Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity LLC/ He presented his Macro and Market Outlook.

Tony applies technical analysis to fundamental data. His perspective is a combination of economic, historical, sentiment, and valuation data.

Tony’s Core Theses:

  • Markets are driven by direction of earnings
  • Direction of earnings driven by economic activity
  • Economic activity driven by money availability
  • Money availability is driven by the Fed
  • The fed is driven by core inflation

Inflation: The Fed is concerned with inflation being too low. Watch the 5- or 10-year inflation breakeven for clues. The Fed targeting an average rate of 2%, which has not happened since 2007.

Debt: Markets go higher with higher debt – people can afford more at a lower cost (lower interest rates). The higher the debt levels, the less the Fed needs to raise rates to slow the economy down, keeping rates historically low.

Credit Outlook: Tony expects lower

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jamie Keelin, MBA, CMT

CMT Photo Archive

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in pictures. With shelter-in-place orders reemerging and our transition to online-only member programming, we’d like to offer a glimpse of in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future.

If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or after work get-togethers please submit them (in digital form, if possible) and include the date, location, and people in the photo. Better yet, if you remember presentations or topics of conversation that relevant to the current markets, let us know. There’s nothing like revisiting market history as it relates to the current environment.

Some photos lost to the fuzzy memories of time.

Atlanta Annual Conference, May 2000

Pictured: Walter Deemer

Some of you may have heard of Walter’s famous indoor laser light show. Here are a few of

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Brennan Basnicki, CFA, CAIA, CMT, Director and Product Specialist at Auspice Capital Advisors
  • Mahmoud Abou-Hussein, CMT, Business Development Manager at Aldahra
  • Aakash Patel, Senior Associate at The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)

CMT

Now that the exams have taken place, I am sure that new candidates are wondering when the results will be released.

Reviewing, finalizing, and communicating exam results may take up to eight weeks from the end of the testing period. CMT Level I and II results will be emailed to candidates by Prometric. CMT Level III results will arrive in an email from the CMT Association.

If you are a Level I or II candidate and did not receive your results from Prometric due to the fact that you opted out of emails, you can access them from the Prometric Reporting/Validations website:  https://scorereports.prometric.com/.  You

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

New Educational Content This Month