As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted.
There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move.
In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages). The yield curve was right again. And money was still flowing – liquidity is bullish.
What we had were businesses being forced to close and people getting laid off through no fault of the companies for which they worked. But that is all starting to reverse, as we knew it would.
So why, then, should we be able to look at a chart pattern and expect it to predict as similar patterns created by true market forces? No, I am not saying supply and demand don’t work – they do. What troubles me is looking at trendlines and support and resistance levels and hoping they will work in the same way as they would during “normal” volatility, free market times.
Use your tools. Just remember the environment we are all in, and give them a little slack.
This month, we are light on content from chapters and committees, thanks to the lockdown, although the Minnesota Chapter remained quite active. However, you will see that the Association is implementing virtual meetings, which means that any member can attend any chapter meeting. That is a good idea!
This month’s interview is with Theodore Krintas, co-chair of the Hellenic Chapter in Greece. We’ve got an article connecting seasonality with the pandemic, which is very interesting but a little off of our technical analysis mission. And we also have to say goodbye to another long-time member and CMT contributor, Dick Dickson, who passed away suddenly on June 1.
Don’t forget to check out the new educational content in the video archives with links at the bottom of this edition.
We hope you are all coping with the lockdown and the slow reopening. Be safe.
President’s Letterby Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP
Technically Speaking Readers – Join the exclusive “Uptrend” Discussions Starting in July! In last month’s issue, I suggested that I wanted to give you more of an incentive to read Technically...
In Memoriam – Richard “Dick” Dicksonby Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor’s Note – Portions of the following were taken from a Technically Speaking interview he did for us in the April 2019 issue. Read the full text in the newsletter archive. Dick Dickson passed...
Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season: Chronobiology of Financial Market Distressby Roy Barzilai
Editor’s Note – The subject matter here is outside of the Association’s purview; the views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author. Be forewarned that it makes claims on market...
The Association Deals with the New Normalby Barbara Terry
The CMT Association has been putting into place the infrastructure and policies to conduct our “new normal” Chapter Meetings. We will have virtual meetings until at least August,...
Member Interviewby Theodore N. Krintas, Ph.D
Please tell us what you do professionally. I head a boutique behavioral consulting partnership called Koubaras Ltd, in Cyprus and Greece. We offer management services, corporate finance and estate...
Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summaryby Mahesh Johari, CFA
The Twin Cities Chapter was pleased to host Doug Ramsey, CFA CMT, as our guest speaker for our May 19th meeting. Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of the Leuthold Group. For some context, the...
"Wall Street Bound” Founder Connects Students With Finance Opportunitiesby Marianna Tessello
Troy Prince, CAIA, is a member of the CMT Association community and CEO of the nonprofit organization Wall Street Bound, recently featured on CNBC. Wall Street Bound seeks to connect underserved...
Membership Newsby Marie Penza
Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Michael A. Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management Ehtesham Khan, CMT,...
New Educational Content This Month
In addition to a new informational discussion with Stan Dash, CMT Program Director, we’ve added the last few educational webcasts and a recording of the virtual India chapter meeting to our archive this month. See the most recent additions below.
New Educational Content This Month
September 16, 2021
CMT Program Informational Session
Presenter(s): Stanley Dash, CMT, Tyler Wood
August 19, 2021
Volume Analysis Series (Part 2): Profiting from Trends
Presenter(s): Buff Dormeier, CMT
July 17, 2021
Popular Indicators Redefined – India Chapter Meeting
Presenter(s): Brijesh Bhatia, Joel Pannikot, Kusal Kansara