Technically Speaking, June 2020

As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted.

There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move.

In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages). The yield curve was right again. And money was still flowing – liquidity is bullish.

What we had were businesses being forced to close and people getting laid off through no fault of the companies for which they worked. But that is all starting to reverse, as we knew it would.

So why, then, should we be able to look at a chart pattern and expect it to predict as similar patterns created by true market forces? No, I am not saying supply and demand don’t work – they do. What troubles me is looking at trendlines and support and resistance levels and hoping they will work in the same way as they would during “normal” volatility, free market times.

Use your tools. Just remember the environment we are all in, and give them a little slack.

This month, we are light on content from chapters and committees, thanks to the lockdown, although the Minnesota Chapter remained quite active. However, you will see that the Association is implementing virtual meetings, which means that any member can attend any chapter meeting. That is a good idea!

This month’s interview is with Theodore Krintas, co-chair of the Hellenic Chapter in Greece. We’ve got an article connecting seasonality with the pandemic, which is very interesting but a little off of our technical analysis mission. And we also have to say goodbye to another long-time member and CMT contributor, Dick Dickson, who passed away suddenly on June 1.

Don’t forget to check out the new educational content in the video archives with links at the bottom of this edition.

We hope you are all coping with the lockdown and the slow reopening. Be safe.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Technically Speaking Readers – Join the exclusive “Uptrend” Discussions Starting in July!

In last month’s issue, I suggested that I...

Read More

In Memoriam – Richard “Dick” Dickson

Editor’s Note – Portions of the following were taken from a Technically Speaking interview he did for us in the...

Read More

Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season: Chronobiology of Financial Market Distress

Editor’s Note – The subject matter here is outside of the Association’s purview; the views and opinions expressed are solely...

Read More

The Association Deals with the New Normal

The CMT Association has been putting into place the infrastructure and policies to conduct our “new normal” Chapter Meetings. We...

Read More

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I head a boutique behavioral consulting partnership called Koubaras Ltd, in Cyprus and...

Read More

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

The Twin Cities Chapter was pleased to host Doug Ramsey, CFA CMT, as our guest speaker for our May 19th...

Read More

"Wall Street Bound” Founder Connects Students With Finance Opportunities

Troy Prince, CAIA, is a member of the CMT Association community and CEO of the nonprofit organization Wall Street Bound,...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Michael A....

Read More

President’s Letter

Technically Speaking Readers – Join the exclusive “Uptrend” Discussions Starting in July!

In last month’s issue, I suggested that I wanted to give you more of an incentive to read Technically Speaking and give the CMT Association some feedback.  Here is your opportunity to do just that and have some real fun doing it.

Starting in July, I will be launching a new and...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

In Memoriam – Richard “Dick” Dickson

Editor’s Note – Portions of the following were taken from a Technically Speaking interview he did for us in the April 2019 issue. Read the full text in the newsletter archive.

Dick Dickson passed away suddenly on June 1. After a career spanning nearly four decades as a technical analyst and strategist, he was only a few weeks into his partial retirement. However, even...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season: Chronobiology of Financial Market Distress

Editor’s Note – The subject matter here is outside of the Association’s purview; the views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author. Be forewarned that it makes claims on market performance that haven’t been empirically tested. However, I found it to be quite interesting and timely, making it fodder for further discussion.

Introduction

In this article, I wish to explain the interrelated...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Roy Barzilai

Roy Barzilai is an independent scholar and the author of several books, including The Testosterone Hypothesis: How Hormones Regulate the Life Cycles of Civilization. As a financial analyst for more than a decade, Roy became aware of the herd mentality in financial...

The Association Deals with the New Normal

The CMT Association has been putting into place the infrastructure and policies to conduct our “new normal” Chapter Meetings. We will have virtual meetings until at least August, depending on the re-opening plans for the world.  Everyone’s safety is very important to us.  Working with our chapter chairs, we are monitoring government mandates regarding group meeting limits.

New information regarding Chapter Meetings:

  • We will be using the GoToWebinar platform to hold...
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Barbara Terry

Barbara Terry is the CMT Association’s volunteer coordinator, based in New York. She has close to 20 years of experience in large-scale project management and account management roles, and is an invaluable resource for the CMT Association’s event planning team.  Barbara holds...

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I head a boutique behavioral consulting partnership called Koubaras Ltd, in Cyprus and Greece. We offer management services, corporate finance and estate planning.

How did you get there?

During my time in high school, I was lucky enough to meet a professor at Athens University of Economics and Business, so I worked towards my first degree in...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Theodore N. Krintas, Ph.D

Theodore Krintas is a C-level executive working in finance and technology industries since 1991. Experienced in developing, growing and expanding businesses, has closely worked with some legends of both industries in Greece and enjoys the appreciation of his colleagues and peers. As an...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

The Twin Cities Chapter was pleased to host Doug Ramsey, CFA CMT, as our guest speaker for our May 19th meeting.  Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of the Leuthold Group.  For some context, the S&P 500 was near 2900 on May 19th.

Doug highlighted the unique nature of this decline, which was caused by a “sudden stop” of economic activity due to pandemic...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

Mahesh Johari is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area. He holds degress in mathematics and economics from the University of Illinois and the University of Arizona.

"Wall Street Bound” Founder Connects Students With Finance Opportunities

Troy Prince, CAIA, is a member of the CMT Association community and CEO of the nonprofit organization Wall Street Bound, recently featured on CNBC. Wall Street Bound seeks to connect underserved young adults in urban areas with the financial training and internship experience they need to land entry-level jobs in the industry.

“We know that talent and IQ is equally distributed,” said Prince in...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

Marianna Tessello served as the CMT Association’s digital producer from 2018 until 2021. She was responsible for the management of most of the association’s front-end digital assets during that time, including social media production, current website information and updates, and various communication...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Michael A. Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management

Ehtesham Khan, CMT, Founder RoboCaprahul Mudliar, Algo Strategy Quant at Tradetron

While working from home due, please take a few minutes to update your information at the CMT Association website.

CMT

Standard registration is open for the...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.