Technically Speaking, March 2015

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

The MTA recently announced this year’s award winners:

  • Walter Deemer – Annual Award
  • Frederic Dickson – Memorial Award
  • Brad Herndon – Service Award
  • Stanley Dash – Recognition Award
  • Amber Hestla-Barnhart – Charles H. Dow Award

In this month’s newsletter we provide more insight into why Walt Deemer and Amber Hestla-Barnhart were honored. Walt is a true legend in the analysis community and the short articles we offer provide a small glimpse of his work. Amber shares details about the process she followed to win the prestigious Charles H. Dow Award in the hope of encouraging more submissions to next year’s competition.

We will have more details on the honorees in next month’s newsletter.

Later this month, hundreds of MTA members will spend time together at the Annual Symposium. Attendees will spend time hearing the thoughts of extraordinary market analysts in formal presentations and in informal settings that are an equally important part of the Symposium. I hope I will get to meet everyone attending the Symposium but the odds of that are low because the Symposium only lasts two days. If you will be attending and have ideas on how we can improve Technically Speaking, please send me a note at editor@mta.org so I can get your feedback in person.

Sincerely,
Michael Carr

What's Inside...

2015 MTA ANNUAL AWARD WINNER: WALTER DEEMER

Walter Deemer began his Wall Street career in July, 1963 as a Merrill Lynch research trainee.  In April, 1964, he...

Read More

WALTER DEEMER: ONE MEMO AND TWO CHARTS

Editor’s note: there are many examples of Walt Deemer’s real time market calls. The one below illustrates Walt’s market timing...

Read More

2015 CHARLES H. DOW AWARD WINNER: FIXING THE VIX: AN INDICATOR TO BEAT FEAR

The Charles H. Dow Award highlights outstanding research in technical analysis. Winning papers have created successful trading systems, insights into...

Read More

Editor’s note: This is an example of the type of work Walt Deemer, this year’s MTA Annual Winner is known...

Read More

Editor’s note: Charles Bilello, CMT, CPA, will be sharing his latest work in a presentation at the MTA Symposium later...

Read More

TECHNICAL TRADING RULE PROFITABILITY AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION

Editor’s note: This is an extract of a paper written by Dr. LeBaron in July 1994 and revised in March...

Read More

WRITING A DOW AWARD WINNING PAPER: WHY AND HOW

Editor’s note: this article is intended to answer the question of what type of process produces an Award winning paper.

...
Read More

THE WORLD’S FIRST BEAR MARKET

Editor’s note: this was originally published at the Global Financial Data blog and is reprinted here with permission.

The United...

Read More

FLAGS AT WORK

Editor’s note: This was originally published by Thompson Reuters and is reprinted here with permission.

Read More

INTERVIEW WITH ADAM O’DELL

How would you describe your job?

My ultimate goal is to provide people with actionable investment ideas… ideas they can...

Read More

CHART OF THE MONTH - FROM BLOOMBERG BRIEF: TECHNICAL STRATEGIES

In the February 26 issue of Bloomberg Brief: Technical Strategies, Alex Cole, a technical analysis specialist in the analytics department...

Read More

2015 MTA ANNUAL AWARD WINNER: WALTER DEEMER

Walter Deemer began his Wall Street career in July, 1963 as a Merrill Lynch research trainee.  In April, 1964, he moved to their Market Analysis Department, where he worked directly under Bob Farrell, and he has been a full-time market analyst ever since.

In February, 1966, Walter joined Tsai Management and Research just...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

WALTER DEEMER: ONE MEMO AND TWO CHARTS

Editor’s note: there are many examples of Walt Deemer’s real time market calls. The one below illustrates Walt’s market timing ability and offers a glimpse of his personality. The memo he wrote in February 1980 is followed by charts showing how well the stocks mentioned below performed.

Contributor(s)

2015 CHARLES H. DOW AWARD WINNER: FIXING THE VIX: AN INDICATOR TO BEAT FEAR

The Charles H. Dow Award highlights outstanding research in technical analysis. Winning papers have created successful trading systems, insights into theories of how markets function and have represented the richness and depth of technical analysis. This year’s Dow Award winner, Amber Hestla-Barnhart, demonstrates how to profitably apply an indicator that has been in the public domain since 2007. Larry Williams, the 2014 MTA Annual...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Amber Hestla-Barnhart

Bio coming soon.

THE REAL DEAL

Editor’s note: This is an example of the type of work Walt Deemer, this year’s MTA Annual Winner is known for. The work is innovative and long term. The original article can be found at Walt’s web site, www.walterdeemer.com.

”What is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source
of...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Dean LeBaron, CFA

Dean LeBaron, CFA, is an author, contrarian thinker, and founder of Batterymarch Financial Management (www.deanlebaron.com/dlbio.html).

Walter Deemer

Walter Deemer is a founding member and past president of the CMT Association who began his Wall Street career in July 1963 as a Merrill Lynch research trainee. In April 1964, Walter moved to Merrill Lynch’s Market Analysis Department, where he worked...

Mark Ungewitter

Mark Ungewitter is a portfolio manager at Charter Trust Company. (www.chartertrust.com).

WORLD WAR

Editor’s note: Charles Bilello, CMT, CPA, will be sharing his latest work in a presentation at the MTA Symposium later this month. This article was originally published at PensionPartners.com and is reprinted here with permission.

In a world of slowing growth, currency debasement has become the economic weapon of choice.

Contributor(s)

Charlie Bilello, CMT

Charlie Bilello, who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Director of Research at Pension Partners, LLC, where he is responsible for strategy development, investment research and communicating the firm’s investment themes and portfolio positioning to clients. Prior to joining...

TECHNICAL TRADING RULE PROFITABILITY AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION

Editor’s note: This is an extract of a paper written by Dr. LeBaron in July 1994 and revised in March 1996. It is as thought provoking today as when it was first published. Dr. LeBaron examines the impact Fed intervention had on technical signals in the foreign exchange market. With the Fed now routinely intervening in various markets, the research is perhaps more timely...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Blake LeBaron

Dr. Blake LeBaron is the Abram L. and Thelma Sachar Chair of International Economics at the International Business School, Brandeis University. LeBaron was at the University of Wisconsin from 1988-1998, and also served as director of the Economics Program at The Santa...

WRITING A DOW AWARD WINNING PAPER: WHY AND HOW

Editor’s note: this article is intended to answer the question of what type of process produces an Award winning paper.

Before I start, I need to say I am humbled by the Charles H. Dow Award. I believe this Award demonstrates the unlimited opportunities in technical analysis for anyone willing to seriously study the subject. The keys to success are widely available – hundreds...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Amber Hestla-Barnhart

Bio coming soon.

THE WORLD’S FIRST BEAR MARKET

Editor’s note: this was originally published at the Global Financial Data blog and is reprinted here with permission.

The United States stock market is in the sixth year of a bull market which began on March 9, 2009. Because the average bull market lasts around four years, some fear the stock market may soon be facing a downward correction. By our count, there have...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Dr. Bryan Taylor

Dr. Bryan Taylor President & Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Dr. Bryan Taylor serves as President and Chief Economist for Global Financial Data. He received his B.A. from Rhodes College, his M.A. from the University of South Carolina in International Relations, and...

FLAGS AT WORK

Editor’s note: This was originally published by Thompson Reuters and is reprinted here with permission.

A trend continuation formation typically consists of an up or down move, a pause in that direction, and then the resumption of that move in the original direction. The flag pole is the cumulative range of the original...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Cornelius Luca

Corelius Luca authored “Trading in the Global Currencies Markets,” published by Prentice Hall (3rd edition – 2007), a comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange markets, instruments, players and methods of forecasting, and “Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currencies Markets,” also published...

INTERVIEW WITH ADAM O’DELL

How would you describe your job?

My ultimate goal is to provide people with actionable investment ideas… ideas they can easily implement as part of a comprehensive wealth-building plan.

That process begins with research. Not research into individual companies or stocks, rather data-driven research into fundamentally-sound and statistically-robust investment strategies. I’ve seen that most self-directed investors are forced to choose between passive index (“buy-and-hope”)...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Adam Grant O’Dell

Adam Grant O’Dell, who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Chief Investment Strategist for Dent Research, a private investment research company.  Leveraging his expertise in systems development, Adam created the company’s premier investment research service, Cycle 9 Alert, which identifies...

Amber Hestla-Barnhart

Bio coming soon.

CHART OF THE MONTH - FROM BLOOMBERG BRIEF: TECHNICAL STRATEGIES

In the February 26 issue of Bloomberg Brief: Technical Strategies, Alex Cole, a technical analysis specialist in the analytics department at Bloomberg LP in New York, showed how the Trend Chameleon study could be used to identify the direction of the primary trend in the market.

As he explained, “The Trend Chameleon study is based on four criteria:

  1. The MACD and its signal...
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)