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Technically Speaking, March 2020

Dear Members, 

For more than 50 years, the CMT Association has existed to advance the discipline of technical analysis. This core value established by our founders guides us as we face the difficult challenge of responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19), which the World Health Organization has declared a global pandemic. 

Our hearts and thoughts go out to the families who have been directly affected by this unprecedented event and we appreciate the healthcare workers, local communities, and governments around the world who are on the front line working to contain this coronavirus. We also applaud all CMT Members engaged in unselfish acts: caring for family and friends; supporting co-workers and colleagues; aiding those in our communities without the privilege to work remotely or lean on savings to fill their pantries 

As the situation grows, the CMT Association has also been impacted. In the interest and health of our members, the Board of Directors decided on March 14th to postpone the upcoming 47th Symposium. The decision was not make lightly, but we know that the event will come back stronger in the years to come. The Association is closely monitoring the pandemic with an eye on the CMT Program. While it has not been immediately impacted, we are in close contact with Prometric to make sure that we have all the current information.

Compounding the challenges of disrupted travel, uncertain business planning and clear public health threats, we know that all our members are shouldering responsibilities for firms and clients trying to navigate tumultuous and uniquely volatile market behavior. So, in the spirit in which the CMT Association was first forged 50 years ago, lean on us for the resources you need to get through this difficult period. Here are a few quick resources you can access from anywhere. 

Resources

1. Journal of Technical Analysis – 70 issues over 40+ years of research by practitioners for practitioners.  

2. Weekly Webinars –  View the schedule of upcoming live digital presentations 

    • Watch A 2020 Market Roadmap by Todd Sohn, CMT of Strategas, presented on Feb 19th here  

3. CMT Youtube Channel – share video presentations, podcast interviews and other free content with your network here 

4. CMT on Twitter – Converse with members and stay current with the latest market commentary from CMT charterholders all over the world at https://twitter.com/cmtassociation 

Community Leadership

Whether you reside in Mumbai, Milwaukee, or anywhere in between, we all have some difficult times aheadWhile it is challenging to resist getting swept up in the media frenzy or falling victim to our own emotional response to sharp losses and client frustrations, remember that this is a time when the industry is counting on our community to bring calm rational perspectives and disciplined guidance. It is on you to be the leader now. Here’s how you can help in the short-term: 

1. Speak to the media, and let us know when that happens so we can amplify that through our social media networks.  

2. Share resources with colleagues at your firm. Send them links to articles or archived videos at www.cmtassociation.org  

Long-Term Relevancy

We are trading through what will be an incredible case study in the future. Here’s how you can leverage this for your career and the global recognition of the CMT Charter.

1. Submit your research to the Charles H. Dow Award competition. Use this market environment to track and monitor your strategies. Share your work and help us all advance the discipline of technical analysis. 

2. Advocate within your firm. Does your employer support ongoing professional development? Can all CMT charterholders use the designation on business cards and research reports? Do they have a learning & development team we can speak with about the value we bring to employees and the firm’s clients? Make your suggestions or introductions to Alvin, Tyler, or Joel – @cmtassociation.org. 

3. Do your colleagues or institutional clients want to improve their professional practice? Introduce them to the CMT Program. 

As we have often been told, hope is not an investment strategy. Hope does not lie in a rate cut or a stimulus package. It comes from calm leaders who are experts in their field sharing objective facts and honest recommendations. CMT Association members have a responsibility to the industry right now. Please send your thoughts and recommendations on how you are taking action and how we can engage deeply in that work with you right now, and for the weeks and months to come. 

On behalf of all CMT Members and staff around the world, we wish you and your families health and safety in the weeks and months ahead 

Sincerely, 

The CMT Association Board of Directors  

What's Inside...

Letter from the Editor

by Michael Kahn, CMT

I don’t think there is much need to recap the events that are unfolding in the stock and bond markets (oil, too). And it would not make much sense, either, because any one of these asset classes...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

And the Award Winner is … I want to convey heartfelt congratulations to our 2020 CMT Award Winners! Each has left a positive impact on the CMT Association, the study of technical analysis and...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

by Mahesh Johari, CFA

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies did a video conference presentation for the Minnesota chapter on February 18, 2020.  Prior to founding Fairlead Strategies, LLC, Katie was Chief Technical...

History of Wall Street - Part 6 of a Periodic Series

by Bruno DiGiorgi

This is the sixth and final installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000. The history...

Member Interview with Larry Berman

by Larry M. Berman, CMT, CTA, CFA

Please tell us what you do professionally. I started in sales, then transitioned to back office jobs in the investment industry for the first eight years of my career. From there, I was Chief...

Spread the Joy, Hire Local

by Michael Kahn, CMT

You worked hard to build your business and now it is time to beef up your staff. You could cast your hiring net far and wide, making use of online services and paying them big fees. Or you could hire...

Journal of Technical Analysis, Issue 70 Now Available

by Emily E.A. Meyer

The CMT Association is excited to relaunch the Journal of Technical Analysis under the editorial guidance of Sergio Santamaria. Historically, the JoTA has been the academic publishing outlet of the...

Members in the Media

by Marianna Tessello

Market turbulence in the past four weeks has drawn commentary, speculation and advice from several CMT charterholders who have been featured in a variety of news outlets around the country. The month...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Lou Mercer, CMT, Regional Investment Strategist – Northern California at...

Letter from the Editor

Letter from the Editor

I don’t think there is much need to recap the events that are unfolding in the stock and bond markets (oil, too). And it would not make much sense, either, because any one of these asset classes could either blow up or melt up in between this writing and its publication (I am writing this Saturday, March 7). You saw stocks basically collapse on the “excuse” of a possible pandemic. I say excuse because we all know that January was a bit extended, over this and under that. You fill in your own blanks. This is not to say that the effects of the virus will not affect the economy for quite some time. And, of course, there is no sugarcoating the human toll, either. And then there are bonds. The last trading day before I wrote this saw a monster gap up after a monster rally to historically low yields with an

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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President’s Letter

President’s Letter

And the Award Winner is … I want to convey heartfelt congratulations to our 2020 CMT Award Winners! Each has left a positive impact on the CMT Association, the study of technical analysis and markets, or both. So, without further delay, let me share this good news with you. Our winners are: CMT Association Annual Award Recipient 2020 – Tom DeMark Established in 1974, the Annual Award recognizes a career that includes a great deal of research and contributions to the discipline of technical analysis. The award is an inspiration for many and has recognized dozens of technicians for their outstanding accomplishments in the field. Many of you may know Tom through his DeMark indicators, which help in anticipating price behavior for markets and securities. Others know him for his 50 years of research in the field of technical analysis and price behavior. His firm, DeMark Analytics, is devoted to successfully timing the markets at

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies did a video conference presentation for the Minnesota chapter on February 18, 2020.  Prior to founding Fairlead Strategies, LLC, Katie was Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners.  Some context around her visit: on February 18th, the S&P 500 was near its peak and it fell by more than 10% over the next 10 days. She noted on Feb. 18th that the S&P 500 was in an uptrend and within a minor breakout to new highs.  Stochastics were overbought and short- term momentum was up.  Her measured move target from the 2019 S&P 500 chart was just under 3500.  She highlighted underperformance in equal-weighted benchmarks and the Russell 2000, but she was seeing some countertrend buy signals in the Russell 2000. Katie takes a “top-down” approach to technical analysis.  She starts by examining macro influences, including major indexes, interest rates, commodities, etc. 

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

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History of Wall Street - Part 6 of a Periodic Series

History of Wall Street - Part 6 of a Periodic Series

This is the sixth and final installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000. The history of Wall Street is incomplete without a brief discussion of money. Let’s dig right in. When the English colonists landed, they had very little money with them, having spent what they had on supplies for the long voyage.  This, added to England’s insistence that the colonies not be allowed to mint currency, caused an almost exclusive reliance on the barter system for needed goods and services.  For example, a man may want a tiny donkey but the owner, not wishing to give away his tiny donkey, may say to the man, “You may have my tiny donkey if I can have your cow.  After all, you won’t need it anymore.” Anyway, while using a cow for currency may have been fashionable,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Back to top
Member Interview with Larry Berman

Member Interview with Larry Berman

Please tell us what you do professionally. I started in sales, then transitioned to back office jobs in the investment industry for the first eight years of my career. From there, I was Chief Technical Analyst CIBC World Markets for 12 years. And for the past 13 years, I’ve been a portfolio manager at my firm ETF Capital Management, managing $1.5 billion. How did you get there? Hard work. I did the then-MTA’s Internship program in 1994, then got involved with the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysts), the CMT Association, and IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts). I was President of the CSTA from 1998-2000 and President of the CMT Association from 2009-2010. Networking played a big part in my career. My formal schooling was a base. As you know, we need to build on a base before it breaks out. The CMT Association was a giant base for my career. Who was an

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Larry M. Berman, CMT, CTA, CFA

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Spread the Joy, Hire Local

Spread the Joy, Hire Local

You worked hard to build your business and now it is time to beef up your staff. You could cast your hiring net far and wide, making use of online services and paying them big fees. Or you could hire local. No, not your next door neighbor. Rather, you could first look within the ranks of the CMT Association. Everyone is already vetted for their interest in technical analysis and commitment to expanding their knowledge. And our membership has all skill – and salary – levels represented, from fresh out of school, yet eager, rookies, to the author of your favorite textbook on TA. If you think some of the more experienced members would not be interested in contract work, think again. Many are running their own portfolios or already living the freelance life. I can tell you that even during my stint with a major publication, I always had a few side

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Journal of Technical Analysis, Issue 70 Now Available

Journal of Technical Analysis, Issue 70 Now Available

The CMT Association is excited to relaunch the Journal of Technical Analysis under the editorial guidance of Sergio Santamaria. Historically, the JoTA has been the academic publishing outlet of the CMT Association, advancing the knowledge and understanding of technical analysis through the curation of well-crafted and high-quality research. While the 70th Issue recognizes the continuity of a decades-long tradition of publication, it also celebrates our series of Charles H. Dow Award winners from 2016-2020. Featuring five winning Dow Award submissions as well as several original research articles, Issue 70 encompasses topics ranging from ranked asset allocation models to investor sentiment and use of the relative strength index for trend following and momentum. In this time of market volatility, readers will find insightful articles tackling topics specifically tailored to forecasting market volatility. Use the research created by your industry peers as a tool to navigate the ongoing, unprecedented black swan event. The success of

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Emily E.A. Meyer

Emily E.A. Meyer

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Members in the Media

Members in the Media

Market turbulence in the past four weeks has drawn commentary, speculation and advice from several CMT charterholders who have been featured in a variety of news outlets around the country. The month of March so far has seen a large portion of our membership emerge as knowledgeable sources of technical information, sought as columnists, commentators, and general voices of reason regarding technical market action. Below, we’ve rounded up more than a dozen CMT charterholders who were featured in the news recently. You can read what each analyst has to say by clicking on the headline next to their name.  Ari Wald: Wall Street can’t make up its mind amid coronavirus outbreak Jeff Hirsch: Silver lining to market selloff: Dividend yields rise as stocks fall Larry Berman: This isn’t the bottom, Larry Berman says John Bollinger: John Bollinger on Bitcoin Price Collapse: ‘I Did Not See That Coming’ Craig Johnson: S&P 500 stocks that have outperformed since

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Lou Mercer, CMT, Regional Investment Strategist – Northern California at Charles Schwab Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, Financial Writer at Zmansmoney.com Graeme Trenerry, Director of FP&A Merchant and Payments at SunTrust Mahmoud Abou-Hussein, CMT Head of Equity Trading at Arab African Investment Management (AAIM) Raphael Grieco, CMT, FRM, Podcaster at Runway Series, the podcast by UPCOMINGVC CMT Standard Registration for the CMT Exams started on February 25th and will end on April 20, 2020.  Fees during standard registration are listed on the website under CMT Program/Frequently Asked Questions/Program Fees.  Candidates for the CMT exams can register as a member or non-member. If you are taking the Level III exam this June, we recommend that you register as an affiliate member so that you can apply for the Professional Member Status after completing the exam.  You must be an affiliate member when applying

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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