Trend-following strategies are prone to whipsaws and low win rates, but they are still profitable over time. Investors can improve performance by applying three concepts to their strategy. Most importantly, these concepts do not alter the nature of the strategy or signals, and the first two can be applied to almost any trend-following indicator. This article will show how smoothing, a signal threshold, and a market regime filter can improve a trend-following strategy. We will quantify these results and show improvements as each concept is applied. Testing is based on historical constituents in the S&P 100 from 5/1/2001 to 5/1/2021, twenty years. Price data was not adjusted for dividends to ensure signal integrity. Performance metrics are based on an all-signals test where every signal in every stock is taken using nominal $1000 positions (long only). Profit Factor is the total Dollars received from the winners divided by the total Dollars received

This past month, the Technical Analyst (U.K.) released its 2021 awards celebrating the best in research, data, software and artificial intelligence. Here are just a few of the winners and finalists from our Association, including Aazan Habib, CMT, Technical Analyst of the Year. Congrats to all! Research & Strategy – Best Equity Research Finalists: DayByDay • Fairlead Strategies • Macro Risk Advisors • Ned Davis Research • Oppenheimer & Co. • Paradigm Capital • Vermilion Research ​Winner: Oppenheimer & Co., Ari Wald, Head of Technical Analysis Research & Strategy – Best FX Research ​Finalists: Adcock Analysis • Continuum Economics • Eurobank Cyprus • Everest Fortune Group  • Go-TechniKAL Insight • RBC Capital Markets • Signal Centre Winner: RBC Capital Markets, George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist Research & Strategy – Best Multi-Asset Research Finalists: DayByDay  • Futurestechs • Macro Risk Advisors • Paradigm Capital • Pictet • RBC Capital Markets • Signal Centre ​Winner: Paradigm Capital, Aazan Habib, Technical Analyst Research & Strategy – Best Institutional Brokerage for Equity Research Finalists: Macro Risk Advisors • Market Securities • Paradigm Capital ​Winner:

Reprinted from the TSAAF website: The Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco sadly reports that Jim Forte, active board member and past president of the association, passed away recently from complications from a long-term illness. Jim personified everything that makes the TSAA-SF the special educational and collegial organization that it is. Jim was generous with his time as an officer, board member and presenter for the organization. He gave freely of his immense historical market knowledge as an educator and mentor to others. Jim was a regular speaker at the December Market Roundup luncheons where he made incredible presentations employing Elliott Wave, Wyckoff and traditional technical analysis methods to make market forecasts that were entertaining and eerily accurate. Despite his health issues, Jim was active, engaged and cheerful in TSAA-SF activities. He lived a full and dynamic life personally and professionally. He was a TSAA-SF member for over 35 years. Jim

Note – this article appeared on “From the Blog” by Lucena Research, now known as Neuravest, in August 2020. Be sure to join Eric Davidson, CMT and JP Gravitt from Neuravest as they discuss Using Alternative Data to Produce Superior Investment Results on June 23rd. Register here. Background: Passive, low-cost investment products such as ETFs have been a boon for large financial institutions, endowments and index funds. These vehicles have worked quite well for most investors since the end of the financial crisis in 2008. With the enormous excess liquidity recently injected into the market and a high concentration in popular constituents, many are becoming weary of their long-only exposure vulnerability to unexpected market moves. At the same time, those contrarians who bet against the market are still licking their wounds and are becoming reluctant to short even the most ridiculously valued stocks. In today’s writeup I’d like to present a new strategy we’ve