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Technically Speaking, May 2021

Although we are headquartered in the U.S., we are a global organization. The economy is recovering here as vaccinations rise and COVID infections decline. However, in contrast, our colleagues elsewhere, especially in India, continue to face major health challenges. CMT President Scott Richter offers our support in his remarks this month. In the markets, changes are brewing as commodities are soaring, technology stocks got smacked and cryptocurrencies have become the “spring break” of tradeables. Dogecoin? Really? I suppose our role is not to judge, but to analyze trends and patterns. What members may have noticed is the lack of chapter meetings in recent months. With the Americas Summit in April and basic Zoom fatigue from working at home and home schooling, it is no wonder everyone needed a break. But fear not, the calendar is filling up again. Check out the “Learning and Events” link on the CMT Association home page. This month, we feature an article by Arthur Hill and a spin on trend following systems. It is elegant in its simplicity and I highly recommend reading it. And for good measure,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President's Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

While here in the United States there is optimism regarding the national COVID-19 case count and the rollout of the vaccines, in other countries in which our members reside, the conditions are not so...

Three Concepts to Augment a Trend-Following Strategy

by Arthur Hill, CMT

Trend-following strategies are prone to whipsaws and low win rates, but they are still profitable over time. Investors can improve performance by applying three concepts to their strategy. Most...

In Memoriam - J. Welles Wilder, Jr.

by Michael Kahn, CMT

One of the most influential figures in technical market analysis, John Welles Wilder, Jr., passed away on April 18, 2021 at age 85. The former mechanical engineer and real estate mogul developed what...

Technical Analysis Awards

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This past month, the Technical Analyst (U.K.) released its 2021 awards celebrating the best in research, data, software and artificial intelligence. Here are just a few of the winners and finalists...

Member Interview with Arthur Hill, CMT

by Arthur Hill, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I run TrendInvestorPro.com, a website that provides a broad market timing model, trend-following strategies and mean-reversion setups based on technical...

Remembering Jim Forte

by Barbara Terry

Reprinted from the TSAAF website: The Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco sadly reports that Jim Forte, active board member and past president of the association, passed away...

Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

by Tyler Wood

Episode 5: Frank Teixeira – Streaming Now Partner, Portfolio Manager, and Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management for over 20 years, Frank Teixeira brings his unmatched insight to...

The Mother of all Sector Rotation Strategies

by Erez Katz

Note – this article appeared on “From the Blog” by Lucena Research, now known as Neuravest, in August 2020. Be sure to join Eric Davidson, CMT and JP Gravitt from Neuravest as they...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP, Investment Designee/Expert for the Ohio Highway Patrol...

New Educational Content This Month

The full recordings of the Americas Summit will be available in the Video Archives on June 1. In the meantime, check out our recently-added webinars, including Sam Stovall’s presentation and more.

President's Letter

President's Letter

While here in the United States there is optimism regarding the national COVID-19 case count and the rollout of the vaccines, in other countries in which our members reside, the conditions are not so rosy.

Specifically, in certain APAC countries, the case counts have been escalating rapidly and have created dire conditions and significant hardship. As you have likely seen or read in the news, India is in a state of crisis due to the virus.

The Board of Directors and CMT Staff members have been heavily focused on the APAC region over the past few years, especially the country of India. India has seen the greatest number of new CMT Program candidates as interest in TA is booming. Subsequently, we have been communicating more frequently with our members about the COVID-driven healthcare crisis, including keeping in touch with our Board Director Akshay Chinchalkar and our Head of the India Office, Joel Pannikot.

To the over 200 CMT members and over 500 CMT Program candidates in India, I want to let you know that our hearts, prayers, and thoughts are with you as you battle this virus. We are actively monitoring conditions and regularly discussing ways we can provide support or accommodation to our constituents in India and other countries impacted by COVID. Should you have any questions about how your candidacy in the CMT Program is being affected by the pandemic, please do not hesitate to reach out to CMT staff members. We are here to help.

Please keep yourself (and loved ones) as safe and as well as can be.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Three Concepts to Augment a Trend-Following Strategy

Three Concepts to Augment a Trend-Following Strategy

Trend-following strategies are prone to whipsaws and low win rates, but they are still profitable over time. Investors can improve performance by applying three concepts to their strategy. Most importantly, these concepts do not alter the nature of the strategy or signals, and the first two can be applied to almost any trend-following indicator. This article will show how smoothing, a signal threshold, and a market regime filter can improve a trend-following strategy.

We will quantify these results and show improvements as each concept is applied. Testing is based on historical constituents in the S&P 100 from 5/1/2001 to 5/1/2021, twenty years. Price data was not adjusted for dividends to ensure signal integrity. Performance metrics are based on an all-signals test where every signal in every stock is taken using nominal $1000 positions (long only). Profit Factor is the total Dollars received from the winners divided by the total Dollars received

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Arthur Hill, CMT

Arthur Hill, CMT

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In Memoriam - J. Welles Wilder, Jr.

In Memoriam - J. Welles Wilder, Jr.

One of the most influential figures in technical market analysis, John Welles Wilder, Jr., passed away on April 18, 2021 at age 85. The former mechanical engineer and real estate mogul developed what many consider to be the core indicators now available on all charting software and used by nearly every technician today.

These indicators include the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Average True Range (ATR), Average Directional Index (ADX), the Parabolic Stop-and-Reverse (SAR), Reaction Trend System and the Directional Movement Index (DMI), among others. He published them in a ground-breaking book called New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems in 1978. The book is still selling well today.

Wilder founded Trend Research LTD, and its primary subsidiary, The Delta Society. His purpose was to share his discovered “secret of the perfect order behind the markets.” This order, which he called the Delta Phenomenon, is supposedly the basis of all market movement relative to

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Technical Analysis Awards

Technical Analysis Awards

This past month, the Technical Analyst (U.K.) released its 2021 awards celebrating the best in research, data, software and artificial intelligence. Here are just a few of the winners and finalists from our Association, including Aazan Habib, CMT, Technical Analyst of the Year. Congrats to all!

Research & Strategy – Best Equity Research

Finalists: DayByDay • Fairlead Strategies • Macro Risk Advisors • Ned Davis Research • Oppenheimer & Co. • Paradigm Capital • Vermilion Research

​Winner: Oppenheimer & Co., Ari Wald, Head of Technical Analysis

Research & Strategy – Best FX Research

​Finalists: Adcock Analysis • Continuum Economics • Eurobank Cyprus • Everest Fortune Group  • Go-TechniKAL Insight • RBC Capital Markets • Signal Centre

Winner: RBC Capital Markets, George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist

Research & Strategy – Best Multi-Asset Research

Finalists: DayByDay  • Futurestechs • Macro Risk Advisors • Paradigm Capital • Pictet • RBC Capital Markets • Signal Centre

​Winner: Paradigm Capital, Aazan Habib, Technical Analyst

Research & Strategy – Best Institutional Brokerage for Equity Research

Finalists: Macro Risk Advisors • Market Securities • Paradigm Capital

​Winner:

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Member Interview with Arthur Hill, CMT

Member Interview with Arthur Hill, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I run TrendInvestorPro.com, a website that provides a broad market timing model, trend-following strategies and mean-reversion setups based on technical analysis and quantitative insights. I also contribute written and video content to StockCharts.com, and developed the TrendInvestorPro Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

How did you get there?

I have been using classical technical analysis techniques to define the trend and find tradable setups for eons. In 2016, I crossed over to the dark side and started quantifying signals and strategies using Amibroker. These quantitative insights helped me become more systematic and objective with my analysis and strategy development. The resulting analysis is shared on TrendInvestorPro, which I started in October 2019.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

Even though we never met or talked, I would consider Marty Zweig as a mentor. I read Winning on Wall Street, subscribed to The Zweig Report and

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Arthur Hill, CMT

Arthur Hill, CMT

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Remembering Jim Forte

Remembering Jim Forte

Reprinted from the TSAAF website:

The Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco sadly reports that Jim Forte, active board member and past president of the association, passed away recently from complications from a long-term illness. Jim personified everything that makes the TSAA-SF the special educational and collegial organization that it is. Jim was generous with his time as an officer, board member and presenter for the organization. He gave freely of his immense historical market knowledge as an educator and mentor to others. Jim was a regular speaker at the December Market Roundup luncheons where he made incredible presentations employing Elliott Wave, Wyckoff and traditional technical analysis methods to make market forecasts that were entertaining and eerily accurate.

Despite his health issues, Jim was active, engaged and cheerful in TSAA-SF activities. He lived a full and dynamic life personally and professionally. He was a TSAA-SF member for over 35

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Barbara Terry

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Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Episode 5: Frank Teixeira – Streaming Now

Partner, Portfolio Manager, and Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management for over 20 years, Frank Teixeira brings his unmatched insight to addressing what it takes to navigate institutional pools of capital through multiple market cycles. Episode #5 of Fill the Gap delivers a firsthand account of the often-opaque world of professional money management.

Exploring the difference between the emotional “pain management” that many investors practice, and a repeatable process of risk management, Frank shares personal successes and challenges that are sometime surprising, refreshingly candid, and always instructive. Without the theoretical jargon of cognitive behavior or trading psychology, listeners will hear the visceral account of how we as investors learn lessons – good or bad – from every experience in the markets. “Be aware of what lesson you are learning,” advises Frank, and remove words like “regret” from your lexicon.

This podcast features several charts which

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

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The Mother of all Sector Rotation Strategies

The Mother of all Sector Rotation Strategies

Note – this article appeared on “From the Blog” by Lucena Research, now known as Neuravest, in August 2020.

Be sure to join Eric Davidson, CMT and JP Gravitt from Neuravest as they discuss Using Alternative Data to Produce Superior Investment Results on June 23rd. Register here.

Background: Passive, low-cost investment products such as ETFs have been a boon for large financial institutions, endowments and index funds. These vehicles have worked quite well for most investors since the end of the financial crisis in 2008. With the enormous excess liquidity recently injected into the market and a high concentration in popular constituents, many are becoming weary of their long-only exposure vulnerability to unexpected market moves. At the same time, those contrarians who bet against the market are still licking their wounds and are becoming reluctant to short even the most ridiculously valued stocks.

In today’s writeup I’d like

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Erez Katz

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP, Investment Designee/Expert for the Ohio Highway Patrol Retirement System
  • Sean Ring, CMT, Editor at Paradigm Press
  • Regan Firdosh Homavazir, CMT for starting a new position as Head Of Equity Research at IndusInd Bank
  • Sean Dillon, CMT, CFTe, Senior Vice President of Investment Strategy at Congress Wealth Management, LLC

CMT

The June 2021 test administration starts on June 3rd, and now is the time to make sure that you are prepared for your scheduled appointment.

If you are taking the exam at a test center, plan to arrive at least 30 minutes before your scheduled appointment to allow for check-in procedures. For remote proctoring, also allow yourself time to check that any firewalls or antivirus protections have been temporarily disabled, and to download the exam. If you need to verify your appointment, please go to

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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