In this edition of Technically Speaking we had the privilege to interview Board Member and Governence Chair Gina Martin Adams. Gina not only shares with us her background, but also provides insights on current market influences. She caps of the interview with advice to practitioners in the field.
Q: Do you think the Fed’s rate cutting could help avoid a recession in 2025?
A: Oh, yeah, I absolutely think so. I think as a matter of fact, we arguably had some form of recession already in 2022, and we’ve been very slowly choppily working our way out of that recessionary type of environment. It was, from our work, a anomalous experience, because we didn’t experience job losses in 2022 which I think is a direct reflection of the 2020 pandemic experience, where we experienced, you know, the greatest job losses in US history in a very short period of time.
So I think we’ve been through this very strange economic landscape, but our work would actually suggest we had a follow up double-dip type of recession in 2022, it just didn’t have any job losses. But everything from the new orders numbers, the ISM numbers, consumer sentiment, just everything that usually matters for declaring whether or not we’re in recession, hit recession trigger levels in 2022 with the exception of jobs.
And from that period on, we’ve been in this choppy kind of recovery. We may experience some kind of job loss environment going into 2025 but so far the early signs are that that’s not happening. We’ve had some, certainly with respect to the hurricane, some devastating impacts in certain areas of the country which are creating a burst of initial claims, but absent those experiences we’re not experiencing any sort of major job losses yet that would suggest we’re headed into another downturn. So at least as far as our work would suggest the Fed has kind of gotten enough in front of this to prevent a major downturn from emerging again into 2025.
But on that point I think the most important takeaway from a technician’s perspective is that while the market has been rising since the lows in 2022 the popular psychology has been very fearful. And that continues, right? So just the very fact that you asked me this question tells me that this is still a big part of the popular psychology, that we’re constantly looking over our shoulder for that other, you know, the downdraft to emerge when it may have already happened. And the market definitely responded in 2022 as though we were in some kind of recession. And ever since, it’s been kind of climbing its way out of those lows.
Q: What got you into your field?
A: Good question. I still wonder sometimes.
I got very interested in finance. Actually, in my undergraduate program at the University of Florida, I was a marketing major with a statistics minor. Originally when I went to school. I was very convinced that I was going to do marketing for a living. Maybe I work for Procter and Gamble, which at the time was the time, was the big gold standard for marketing. And I did enjoy my marketing coursework. But as a part of an undergraduate education in business, I was required to take finance courses as well. And I took my first finance course, and I can honestly say I was kind of interested in the economy, I was kind of interested in the market when I was in high school, but I didn’t really see this as a career option. I wasn’t one of those kids in high school that’s like trading because my dad’s trading, or, you know, reading the journal, because that’s what we did in our house. Instead, we talked a lot about the economy. We talked a lot about kind of trade and agriculture, because those were the industries that my dad was in, but it wasn’t really markets focused.
So when I got to college and I took my first finance course, I was kind of blown away and really, really attracted to finance. At the same time I was working in a student work program in the Department of Finance, so I was exposed to all the professors of finance, and I really started to get very interested in finance. But I didn’t know what I exactly wanted to do, I just pursued my degree in finance. I knew I enjoyed the educational aspects of the education in the field, but really had no idea how I wanted to apply it. And ultimately met a recruiter who was recruiting for jobs at the company called First Union at the time, which became Wachovia, which became Wells Fargo. And I thought, like every other undergraduate finance major, I had to get into investment banking. Because that was just what you did. You have a finance degree, you go into an investment bank, you work as an analyst for a couple of years, and then you go back and you get an MBA. That was the path at that time. And you know, granted, this is the 1990s so it was a different path than it probably is today, but nonetheless, that was what kind of you did as a finance major. And I met this recruiter, and she said, “You know, I don’t think you’re right for that. I don’t know if that’s the right field for you. I think you’re going to be kind of miserable sitting in the Excel spreadsheet and building individual company models for the rest of your life. You don’t seem to know what really what you want to do anyway.” She was right. “So why don’t you try this other program that we have that we’re recruiting for at First Union.” It was a Capital Management Training Program which is really designed to give young graduates exposure to all the different aspects of asset management, really. And it was a training program that that they recruited for where you got to spend two years of your life just rotating to different components of the Capital Management division within First Union to get exposure to trust operations or financial advisory or fiduciary or whatever. We had a mutual fund Division at the time because at the time, it was all a very manual training process.
So I went into that program, and from there, really got much more exposure to how assets are managed, how money is managed, how portfolio managers kind of actually manage capital. And at that point, I knew, “Oh, this is what I want to do.” And I ended up, after that program, landing in a position working for the CIO of Evergreen Investments, which I don’t even know what it’s called by now, after several iterations, but I was doing his research, doing portfolio attribution, understanding how portfolio managers are making decisions, but also doing research and ghost writing articles for him on the financial markets, what’s happening in the economy, what’s happening in the financial markets for us to distribute to our clients. And that was my, that was my first, you know, real job. I just got really lucky. I met the right people who were able to encourage me to just explore for the first couple of years. People who recognized that maybe I wasn’t quite the right fit for a very traditional path into investment banking, but that I might be able to pursue my passions and my interests in finance through asset management, and that ultimately led me to my career in research.
So I did that position for a couple of years, and then ultimately transitioned over into economics, which then transitioned back into strategy. But from that very initial job, I only worked for a couple of years on the buy side, and then transitioned into a sell side position creating research for a living, and I’ve been doing that ever since. In several different positions, but nonetheless, and and really love it. So I got very, very lucky, and had a couple of hands pointing me in the right direction along the way.
Q: What took you to Bloomberg? And how long have you been there?
A: Yeah, so I’ve been at Bloomberg now for almost eight years. I joined in the early part of 2017. What brought me here? I was running an equity strategy product at Wells Fargo. I was actually working a lot with Bloomberg at that time. I was, obviously, working with the reporters Media Team. I was up here at Bloomberg, which Wells Fargo was only six blocks away from Bloomberg here in New York City. So I was constantly running up Lexington Avenue to do a TV gig or sit in a radio booth and do an interview, or whatever it might be. And so I was working a lot with Bloomberg on television, and the head of Bloomberg TV actually called me and suggested that he might want to fill an anchor role at Bloomberg, and in my typical way, I said that, “There’s no way I want to work for television. I’m an equity strategist. I love what I do,” because I do love what I do. But I do love Bloomberg. And so he introduced me to David Dwyer, who is the head of Bloomberg intelligence research here. And we got to talking, and I started to get really interested in this concept that Bloomberg as, what I thought of as a media company, that actually is a very powerful financial services entity and fintech company really, has this research division that they’re building out. This might be a really interesting opportunity for me to expand my own research set. At the time at Wells Fargo, I was covering purely US research, US equity markets. And here at BI the sky has kind of been the limit. So I’ve built a global team. I’ve been able to kind of port my approach to analyzing the markets, my equity strategy product that I had built over the time that I was at Wells Fargo, I’ve been able to port that into Bloomberg, customize it for the Bloomberg client, build it out globally and explore different aspects of equity market research in this role. So it turned out to be a natural next step for me, a natural kind of expansion of an existing skill set. But certainly, again, not anything that I would have envisioned if I were on kind of that traditional path, because I was very much working my way through the investment bank. I had recently achieved managing director status. I was building a presence in the marketplace, building a strong client base, really enjoying what I did. But this next opportunity just kind of presented itself. I do find that I really do enjoy interacting with the media, and you know, Bloomberg has always been a very wonderful partner to me, whether it’s as an employee or working with Bloomberg from afar. So it’s become kind of a natural fit.
Q: What do you think is the thing you’re most proud of while you’ve been at Bloomberg?
A: Oh, I had no idea that I would build this team. I came in here thinking, “Okay, I’ll bring my US equity strategy product, and then maybe we’ll add a little bit of global perspective to that.” And in the eight years I’ve been here I’ve been able to build several teams and be a part of the growth of an extraordinary research division. I don’t know how big it was when I joined, but I would venture to say it was 100 people, maybe 150 globally, and we’re well north of 400 now. My team was just me and one other analyst when I started, and now we’re a team of 37 covering the global equity markets.
I am so proud of how we’ve been able to also pivot and develop new products as the marketplace demands them. So several years back, I started developing an ESG team, which has now been carved out into its own division. We’ve developed ETF and fund strategy team. We’re now embarking upon developing a thematic strategy team to complement our traditional market strategy research products. So one just amazing thing about being a Bloomberg is the ability to identify where the marketplace is changing and start to build products to really appeal to our client base, which is just very exciting. It’s very fun. So I can say that I’m quite proud of that.
I’m also very proud of the end of the research product that I have as an independent researcher as well. I think I’ve always been pretty proud of its iterations and its growth over time, but that’s the thing that kind of most surprised me, that I’m most proud of, is just how much it’s grown and I can contribute to the growth of kind of new initiatives, new products, new strategies as the marketplace demands it.
Q: Is there anything outside of your work that you’re really passionate about? That you think defines you?
A: I mean, I don’t have a ton of time outside of my work, to be quite honest with you. I’m pretty roped in to my job. But I do have a husband, two kids, and two dogs that consume my time when I’m not at work. I have two: a teen and a nearly teenager, daughters, 13 and 11, so they’ve kept me very, very busy and engaged in trying to raise two independent ladies, which is a lot of fun. My husband published his first novel a year ago, so he is now officially an author. Former journalist, now author. So that’s been a fun journey. He’s enjoying his transition to being an author. And watching him build a new career has been fascinating and really a lot of fun. And I have two dogs that are also my pride and joy that keep me very busy.
Beyond family, I do a lot of running. I’ve never run a race. This bothers a lot of people, but I just love to run. For me, I run a lot, probably so much that I’m eventually going to have to have a hip replacement. Nonetheless, I run for kind of peace and solitude and detachment, and a lot of my best ideas kind of come when I’m running. And I also practice yoga as much as possible. And then I’m just an avid reader. So when I have any moment of free time, I’m usually nose in a book.
Q: You’ve been a member since 2008 and got your designation in 2010. Can you tell us about your experience with CMT Association? What drove you to it? What you liked about it?
A: I actually started out because I was working as an economist, and I distinctly remember that what brought me to the technicians realm was trying to forecast oil prices and a 10-year treasury yield. And I wasn’t necessarily in charge of these forecasts, but I remember as a group, we were really struggling to forecast both of those asset prices using traditional economic sort of variables. And I so I started to seek out what could be explaining this. Is there a behavior? Is there some sort of reasoning? Why are our models so persistently underappreciating the level of yields and the value of oil? At the time, Chairman Greenspan, who was at the time the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, was even making speeches about irrational exuberance and markets and talking about how asset prices were detaching, this great conundrum of the savings glut in the world. There’s just all kinds of different explanations for why, especially the 10-year treasury yield, was relatively low compared to what most forecasts would suggest, and why the oil price was continuously on this long term uptrend. And so I sought out some other mechanism for explanation. I was trained as a fundamental analyst. I was an economist, a working economist at the time. I had this CFA designation that I had pursued immediately after school, and yet I couldn’t really help contribute to this forecast. And that took me to the CMT designation, where I was able to look at really analyzing price and utilizing price itself as a variable for forecasting. Understanding behavioral analysis, understanding cycles and how cycles work and may contribute to asset price changes. It helped me understand that there is such a thing as sentiment, right, that sometimes contributes to asset price changes. And that led me, ultimately, once I got engaged in the in the pursuit of the designation, it led me to the Association itself, which has been just kind of a such a value add in my life.
It’s very difficult to kind of articulate how amazing it’s been to have access to and be surrounded by such great minds that think quite differently than the fundamental analyst community does, yet I view as incredibly complimentary to the industry. And I guess that’s kind of the story. It started with a frustration that I couldn’t quite get there, and CMT has become a solution.
It’s amazing. And it’s also great because I think, very consistently, it’s filled with like-minded professionals who are always looking for an understanding of how to progress. Progressive solution seeking is one way that I would describe the community. Not at all stuck in a traditional thinking but really willing to push the bar and think about how markets are evolving and how things are changing, and trying to capture those changes. It’s just really, really a great community to be involved in.
Q: Do you have hopes for the association as a board member? Are there some things you hope to accomplish?
A: I would like to just first and foremost, continue to spread the word to the financial community, that this is a great place to hone your craft, work with like-minded professionals who will help you identify your passions and pursue those passions, and help you progress and engage and learn in the industry. So I think first and foremost, I just want to continue to spread the word to the world of finance that CMT is a home for people who are interested in pursuing or adding on technical analysis to their toolkit. I think that’s probably my biggest passion is just that and that alone. I think there’s a number of ways that we could do that and help people understand who we are, and what we do and the value that we offer to the world. So I’ve dedicated some of my time on the board to the Chapter Development Committee, because I think our chapters are local, on-the-ground engagement spot. So to the degree that I can help with engaging in the local communities, developing the chapters, really helping to spread the word through the chapters and provide those the infrastructure, develop the infrastructure so that people, no matter where you are, have a community that you can lean on of technicians. That’s a big point of passion for me.
I’ve also, oddly, never thought I’d be in this position either, but I’ve become the chair of the Governance Committee, so that has created a lot of learnings for me. It’s a great opportunity for me to engage in the organization, really get to know and understand how the board works, help to structure the board, source new talent for the board. So that’s been a ton of fun as well, and a huge learning opportunity for me, way outside my comfort zone. But nonetheless, it’s been really great. And every time I get off of a meeting, I feel reaffirmed that I made the right choice in joining the board and committing more time to the organization, because it’s just a really exciting place and a great spot to kind of dedicate free time to giving back because I do really believe in the designation and the power of these communities and the power of technical analysis to improving your investment process.
You know, COVID was such a disruptive experience in so many ways. And I think we can take some of the learnings from COVID, but also remind ourselves of how things were pre-COVID, try to combine those two things to create new communities in the post pandemic world. And it’s been a bit of a challenge to really rethink and restructure our chapters, but we’re moving forward, and I think we have so many exciting things to offer the technicians community. At the heart of it is just this on-the-ground group of like-minded professionals that links into the international organization that we are, to really provide that avenue of access and that touch point right at home.
Q: What advice would you give to new members of the CMT Association?
A: I guess the advice that I would give is: Engage.
When I first joined the organization it felt a little daunting. These are powerful, very impressive individuals. Oftentimes when you go to a conference, you’re learning so much, but I think it’s a really unique community of very open-hearted, giving people that are willing to engage with everyone. And I think I might have underestimated that in my early stages of pursuing my designation. I would just encourage newer people who are in pursuit to engage with the members right up front, because you’ll be surprised at how welcoming they are and how interested they are in helping you discover your goals, passions, dreams, or achieve your goals, passions, dreams, right? So I think that would be my best piece of advice, is just engage. Just have those conversations. Go to the events. Even just log in and join us on Zoom every now and again. Take advantage of the resources that are available. Whether those be community resources or educational resources inside the CMT. It’s worth it, and you’ll be amazed at how much you get out of it, but also how much opportunity there is for you to give.
Q: Is there any advice specifically targeted for the women charterholders of today?
A: Well I’m fresh off of our Susan Berger book event, which was very inspirational for me. And the thing that comes out of that book event with the CMT women’s chapter is: Persist. You know, I think that was my main takeaway from our conversation with Susan. It was my main takeaway from her book, as well, is this power of persistence. And I think that that is a lot of what it is to win as a woman in this business is just persistence.
People will tell you no, people will tell you can’t do it, people will tell you it’s not possible, but just persist because you can. And I know that sounds very simple, but I do believe in the power of persistence as well. I was super encouraged to hear of and read Susan’s story, because she’s been through so many more challenges that I have. She set this really high bar of what I could do along with a number of other women in the industry who kind of forged a path for my generation. And I like to think that our generation is forging a path for the generation that’s joining the workforce now and just getting going. And I really think that the commonality for all of us is just to persist. Don’t take no for an answer, persist. You are equal. You are worthy. You can make it happen, but you will have to persist through resistance.
Q: What do you think the future holds for all CMT charter holders? Is there?
A: Oh, gosh, yeah, sky’s the limit honestly.
I think there’s so much yet to be discovered. Integration of technicals into the broader field. I think we’re just getting started at finding ways to integrate very powerful technical tools in broader portfolio manager strategy, management strategies, most specifically with respect to analyzing behavior and sentiment. It’s something that I’m incredibly interested in, is how just how sentiment is framed, how sentiment is formed, beyond just fear and greed. Which I think we’ve done a lot to capture fear points/greed points, and we ourselves have done a significant amount of research on and development of models to capture fear and greed in the marketplace. But really, what drives fear and greed, what drives behavioral shifts? In particular, something that I’m most interested in are the policy aspects. So how is the market going to or not going to perceive policy changes or changes in geopolitical relationships, and how will that ultimately manifest itself in behavior and sentiment in markets, which will then drive prices? I mean, I could probably go on for this for a really long time, but that’s where I think it’s most interesting. Technicals really, for me, capture behavior better than anything else that exists in the marketplace. Analyzing how those behavioral changes impact markets is done through technicals. And I feel like technicals can really forge the path on capturing behavior. So that’s where I’m most engaged personally, and, I think, where we can see significant evolution in our industry. I think just generically there’s still a lot of mindshare to capture in the marketplace. That misunderstands what technical analysis is, maybe doesn’t have the educational background in how to pursue technical analysis as a professional field, how to integrate technicals in their process. So there’s still a lot of wood to chop, and sort of the basic pushing out, if you will, of technicals throughout the entire financial industry as a discipline. But as a topic area of focus, I think behavioral analysis, there’s so much to be done there.
