Technically Speaking, August 2020

The Dog Days are upon us, yet the animal ruling the roost is the bull. That is, if you are in the stock market and most of the metals. Not so much if you own U.S. dollars. With the world still upside down due to the pandemic, whole swaths of the economy are likely to change; that means rethinking portfolio allocations.

But you don’t need me to tell you about the new world, as we are all living in it. I do, however, have confidence that this time next year things will be mostly back to normal. We’ll still probably look at each other as if everyone has got a secret case of the cooties, which, by the way, is a real word in the dictionary. I had no idea. But that, too, will pass with time.

In this month’s edition, we interview Jeanette Schwarz Young, options trader and educator extraordinaire. The feature article by a recent new member, John Letizia, looks at the FAANG stocks with a new spin. For most of them, the big gains have happened after hours, but that could be changing. He also introduces us to an index that tracks an expanded version of these stocks that we can actually chart.

Of course, we’ve got some Chapter meeting summaries from NY, Minnesota and Chicago, as we proceed with virtual-only meetings for the foreseeable future. We’ve also got another first, as the Singapore and Hong Kong Chapters held a joint virtual meeting with three speakers and several attendee polls. Check this out and see that our Asia presence is alive, well and growing.

Membership news and a message from the President round it all out. Don’t forget, pricing for the CMT exams increases on September 1, so register now to get the current (Standard) price.

The post-Labor Day period typically sees activity of all sorts pick up. When we add the Presidential election drawing near, these should be “interesting times” ahead. Stay safe.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Attention all future CMT Charterholders,

Since you probably have been busy dealing with the current world situation while you still...

Has FAANG+ Flipped from Nocturnality?

John Letizia II, CPA, CMT, CFTe

For the last several years, the technology sector has been all the rage, garnering a significant amount of airtime on...

New York Chapter Meeting Summary

Tom Bruni, CMT

On Thursday, July 23rd, 2020, the New York Chapter hosted Andrew Thrasher, CMT, for a virtual meeting. Andrew is a...

Minneapolis July Chapter Meeting

Jamie Keelin, MBA, CMT

Featured speaker Sam Stovall Research presented “The Rules Rule!” to the Minneapolis chapter on July 21 via a webcast. Sam...

Member Interview

Jeanette Schwarz Young CMT, CFP, CFTe, MS

Please tell us what you do professionally.

Currently, I am a trader, a trading coach, and writer. I have been...

Chicago Chapter Meeting Summary

Matt Nygaard, CMT

On Thursday, July 16, legendary trader Damon Pavlatos, founder of PhotonTrader Services, presented to the CMT Association Chicago Chapter in...

New Book Corner

Michael Kahn, CMT

We love to let everyone know when members publish new books or series.

Kaufman Constructs Trading Systems by Perry J....

Singapore and Hong Kong Combined Chapter Conference Summary

Isaac Lim, CMT, CFTe

On Tuesday, July 28, 2020, both the Singapore and Hong Kong Chapters of the CMT Association came together and hosted...

Membership News

Marie Penza

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Ryan Detrick,...

President’s Letter

Attention all future CMT Charterholders,

Since you probably have been busy dealing with the current world situation while you still serve your clients, you might not be aware of what’s going on with the CMT Program. The standard registration pricing period for all three levels of the CMT exams ends on August 31, 2020. This means that beginning September 1st, it will cost a new CMT Program candidate $200 more to sit for the December exam than it does right now. Signing up today leaves plenty of time to study – enough to have a firm grasp on the curriculum and be confident going into the exam.

As a CMT charter holder, you have the strongest influence by far on the folks in your network of financial professionals who have been thinking about getting the CMT designation. Now is a great time to reach out to them via LinkedIn, email, or a quick phone call to let them know about the registration pricing change and to encourage them to sign up. I personally am making calls to past CMT test takers over the next few weeks to let them know about the pricing change and to remind them of the value of getting the CMT.

All the details of the CMT Program can be found on the CMT Association’s website, including exam fees, how to register, information about the curriculum, etc. Additionally, if your people have any questions, you can always refer them to the friendly and knowledgeable CMT staff members.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM. He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors. He was formerly...

Has FAANG+ Flipped from Nocturnality?

For the last several years, the technology sector has been all the rage, garnering a significant amount of airtime on the business channels. Commentary typically revolves around a “handful” of big names which have been market leaders for some time. The collection of these names earned the initial nickname of FANG by CNBC host Jim Cramer in 2013. The acronym was changed to FAANG in 2017 when AAPL was officially added and morphed colloquially to FAANG+ when additional names were added.

As of July 27, 2020, just the FAANG stocks (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and GOOGL) made up roughly 15.0% of the S&P and 32.9% of the NASDAQ 100. In fact, just the five FAANG names have a combined market cap of $5.1 trillion as of July 27, 2020. With so much attention to this small group of names (out of approximately 4,000 publicly traded companies listed on U.S. exchanges), it is only fitting that there is an index to track these names.

On September 26, 2017, the NYSE launched the NYSE FANG+™ Index, with historical data available from September 19, 2014. This equal weighted index consists of 10 common stocks (or ADRs in the case of foreign issuers) listed on U.S. exchanges. The 10 constituents of the index are: FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA, and TWTR which have an aggregate market capitalization of $6.4 trillion (see Exhibit 2). For context on just how massive this is, consider that on July 27, 2020 the market cap of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones was $8.1 trillion ($6.5 trillion excluding AAPL).

Exhibit 1: NYSE FANG+™ Index Since InceptionSource: Stockcharts.com as of July 27, 2020

Exhibit 2: Market Capitalization for NYSE FANG+™ Index Constituents

Source: FactSet as of July 27, 2020. Market capitalization in billions USD

Since its launching in 2017 through July 27, 2020, the NYSE FANG+™ Index has jumped 130%, with the clear best percentage performer being TSLA, which has skyrocketed 346% (see Exhibit 3). In fact, since the index launched, its 10 constituents have a median return of 130% (see Exhibit 4). From September 19, 2014 through July 27, 2020, the 10 constituents have returned a median of 236%. For 2020 through July 27, 2020, the S&P 500 is flat, the NASDAQ 100 is up 22%, and the NYSE FANG+™ Index is higher by 49% (see Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 3: NYSE FANG+™ Index Constituent Returns

Source: FactSet as of July 27, 2020

Exhibit 4: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and NYSE FANG+™ Index Returns

Source: FactSet as of July 27, 2020

The interesting part of this parabolic move over the past few years is that the lion’s share of the net cumulative move for each period presented in Exhibits 3 and 5 occurred outside of regular trading hours (i.e., at times other than 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET). In fact, since the index was launched on September 26, 2017 through July 27, 2020, only FB and AAPL had better net cumulative moves during regular trading hours for the periods presented than outside of regular trading hours. On an individual level, in 2018 TSLA was the only constituent in which the net cumulative move during regular trading hours outperformed the net cumulative move during non-regular trading hours.

In 2019, only AAPL and TSLA had net cumulative moves for the year greater during regular trading hours than non-regular trading hours. This has suddenly shifted in 2020 when the overwhelming majority of the index’s constituents have made their net cumulative moves during regular trading hours with the exception of GOOGL, BABA, and TSLA. The net cumulative move was determined by computing the total change in closing price for each name listed in Exhibits 5 and 6 in each period presented during all regular trading hours sessions and such change during all non-regular trading hours sessions. Performance was determined by which session produced the greater positive (bullish) or less negative (bearish) result.

Exhibit 5: NYSE FANG+™ Index Constituent Superior Performance Session

Source: FactSet as of July 27, 2020

Exhibit 6: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and NYSE FANG+™ Index Superior Performance Session

Source: FactSet as of July 27, 2020

For 2018 and 2019, there were 3 out of 20 possible instances when the regular trading hours sessions outperformed the overnight move for the year. This is interesting given that these names are the darlings of the business news with a significant retail following, particularly among young Robinhood investors. This year through July 27, 2020, the S&P 500 outperformed outside of regular trading hours (see Exhibit 6). In fact, with the exception of 2016, the S&P 500 has outperformed each year from 2015 through 2019. I am without an explanation as to why the bulls charge outside of regular trading hours at a greater pace.

My hypothesis is that the NYSE FANG+™ Index constituents are widely held by institutions and make up such a large percentage of the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 that it is fitting for the index futures to price in the overnight moves which are reflected in the opening prices when the cash market opens at 9:30 AM ET. Given the popularity of investing apps such as Robinhood, WeBull, Firstrade, etc., it seems reasonable to assume that the retail investor, who generally only trades during regular trading hours, is steering the bull.

This theory seems to hold some validity as the NYSE President Stacey Cunningham said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday, July 24, 2020, that TD Ameritrade and Interactive Brokers reported high 2Q retail trading volumes, likely due to the zero-commission trading platforms as well as more consumers at home as a result of COVID-19.

Absent the February/March 2020 volatility surge when COVID-19 fears first surfaced and initial stay-at-home orders were implemented, officially ending the 10-year bull run, the market has been on a wild upward trajectory. On March 18, 2020 the NYSE FANG+™ Index declined by 30.4% from its all-time high on February 19, 2020. From the March 18, 2020 low through July 27, 2020, the NYSE FANG+™ Index returned 78.9% versus the NASDAQ 100’s 57.6% return and S&P 500’s seemingly paltry 47.8%. In fact, the NYSE FANG+™ Index has hit 13 all-time highs since the March 18, 2020 low.

As market technicians, we know the last stage of a bull market is a final explosive move driven by euphoric enthusiasm. Is this froth in the NYSE FANG+™ Index the signal for the finale of an amazing bull move? If so, what does that mean for the market as a whole, which has been largely dependent upon this “handful” of names to propel alpha? I am not prepared to blow the whistle on the FAANG+ universe, yet, at least until there is confirmation, but I am starting to ponder how much further investors can propel these names.

Contributor(s)

John Letizia II, CPA, CMT, CFTe

John J. Letizia II, CPA, CMT, CFTe is a sell-side equity analyst. Prior to his time on the sell-side, John worked as a proprietary trader employing technical analysis for three years. John also has worked in both KPMG’s and Ernst & Young’s...

New York Chapter Meeting Summary

On Thursday, July 23rd, 2020, the New York Chapter hosted Andrew Thrasher, CMT, for a virtual meeting. Andrew is a Portfolio Manager for Financial Enhancement Group, LLC, Founder of Thrasher Analytics LLC, and winner of the 2017 Charles H. Dow Award for his paper “Forecasting A Volatility Tsunami.” He discussed a variety of topics including Volatility Analysis, Breadth, Sentiment, Momentum, and more!

Andrew started his presentation by outlining his two jobs as a Portfolio Manager: finding opportunities to invest client assets with the potential for appreciation and maintain and enforce risk management principles to minimize investment-related losses. The critical distinction between being an analyst and having to take the next step to execute on that analysis in the market was made throughout the presentation as he walked through his process and strategic approach.

Next, we looked at the positive effects on returns if you miss the best and worst trading days and what that looks like in practice, given those days tend to cluster together. Andrew then got into the analysis of Volatility, speaking about the assumptions and conclusions of his 2017 paper, “Forecasting A Volatility Tsunami.” Following this, he discussed how we could use VIX dispersion and spikes in Volatility practically when approaching markets, showing real-world examples from periods such as 1987, 2008, 2015, and 2018-2019 and how they played out.

The conversation then moved into Andrew’s current market thoughts, where he discussed some of his proprietary indicators, including the Volatility Risk Trigger and Momentum Divergence Indicator and their use in identifying potential turning points/regime changes. After that, we got into breadth measures, sentiment indicators, and other favorite charts , including Offensive vs. Defensive sectors, Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples ratio and a Trump vs. Biden portfolio focused on quantifying the market’s views of the upcoming election.

After his hour-long presentation, Andrew stuck around for another twenty minutes answering questions from the audience and covering a range of topics. Some that stood out were typical Volatility (VIX) misconceptions/analysis faux-pas, questions about his proprietary tools and how they function, and how he’s expressing his current market views in client portfolios.

If you missed the live meeting, don’t fret! You can view it in the CMT Video Archives, which we highly recommend, as it was full of insights and learning opportunities for everyone.

Thank you again to Andrew for spending his Thursday evening with us and to everyone who joined the live presentation. Keep an eye out for our next event on Thursday, August 13th!

Contributor(s)

Tom Bruni, CMT

Tom Bruni, CMT, is the Head of Market Research at Stocktwits, where he publishes the brand’s flagship market recap newsletter, “The Daily Rip,” for one million subscribers and oversees the platform’s growing publishing efforts. Bruni has been at the intersection of finance and media...

Minneapolis July Chapter Meeting

Featured speaker Sam Stovall Research presented “The Rules Rule!” to the Minneapolis chapter on July 21 via a webcast. Sam is the Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA and is the author of “S&P Guide to Sector Investing” and “The Seven Rules of Wall Street.” Who is CFRA? They provide investment management services and strategies to investors globally through the MarketScope Advisor Platform & the Outlook. Investars ranked CFRA #1 for fundamental research for U.S. Buy-Sell performance.

Expectations for 2020: Annual performance since WWII shows the S&P 500 returns an average of 6.6% when a Republican is president in the fourth year of their first term. There have been 6 occasions of this occurrence, and all have been positive. Based on the number of sub-indices being above their 200-day moving averages exceeding 90% in early 2020, Sam believed the market was due for a correction. The correction was in search of a catalyst and COVID-19 was that catalyst. The sell-off occurred and all 147 sub-indices were lower, as the S&P 500 declined 34%.

Sam believes Q2 to be the trough quarter. The decline was the fastest drop since WWII, and the average time to breakeven for 20 – 40% declines is 14 months. The recovery off the March low is being led by growth and large caps while the speed of the recovery is being boosted by fiscal and monetary policy. There have been three times when the recovery was quick – 3,4, and 7 months. Is this another period of a quick recovery?

Headwinds: COVID-19 ramp, earnings disappointments, potential Democratic sweep in the upcoming election.

Tailwinds: Large and swift fiscal and monetary policy, V-shaped economic recovery, Wall Street discounting 2020 earnings.

Valuations: Absolute valuations for the S&P 500 sectors are all trading at a premium with the S&P 500 trading at a 51% premium. On a relative basis, some sectors are trading at a discount such as consumer staples, financials, healthcare, technology, and utilities.

Concerns: Best/worst sector differential is double the historic average of 41 percentage points. Historically when the differential is this high, the average gain for the next 12 months is -2.3% and is positive 47% of the time.

Political concerns: Sam discussed the upcoming election and possible scenarios. One thing to watch is the market returns from July 31^st to October 31^st. When the market returns are positive the incumbent usually wins, if returns are negative the incumbent usually loses.

Rules: See the Sam’s book, “The Seven Rules of Wall Street”

Worst to first
Let your winners ride, cut your losers short
No free lunch on Wall Street (oh yeah, who says?)
Sell in May, then go away
As January goes, so does the year
Don’t get mad – get even!
Don’t fight the Fed (at least for too long)

Strategies:

Worse to First: In a bear market, own the worst 3 sectors and 10 worse sub-indices for six months produced returns of an average of 42.8% and 60.9% vs the S&P 500 average returns of 31.3%.
Momentum: Own the top 3 sectors based on 12-month returns, evaluated monthly. Own the top 10 sub industries based on 12-month returns, evaluated monthly. These strategies of “letting your winners ride” produced returns that outperformed the average returns of the S&P 500.
Free Lunch portfolio: Own 50% technology and 50% staples produced a similar return to owning only technology with 40% less risk.
Seasonality: “Do not retreat, rotate.” May-October is the weakest six-month rolling period, owning staples and healthcare sectors outperforms the S&P 500. CFRA has an ETF for this portfolio – SZNE. November-April is the strongest six-month rolling period, owning consumer discretionary, industrials, technology, and materials outperforms the S&P 500.

See www.CFRAresearch.com for additional information.

Contributor(s)

Jamie Keelin, MBA, CMT

Jamie Keelin, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Frazer Bay Investments, LLC, which offers investment strategies that are based on tactical asset allocation (TAA), a dynamic investment strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s asset...

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

Currently, I am a trader, a trading coach, and writer. I have been a CMT member since 1995 and was the first CMT Program Director. I was also a two-term President of AAPTA and on the Board of Directors for IFTA. I hold many FINRA licenses including series 27, 53,24,7,3,63, and of course, 86. Away from the markets, I hold a Master’s degree in Speech and Hearing.

How did you get there?

I began my career at 12, when my father told me that my holiday present was going to be a stock. After a small hissy fit, I reviewed the choices and opted for General Electric. At that time, GE was not a bad choice.

During college, I worked as a surgical technician. I wanted to become a physician but didn’t have the dedication to spend more years going to school so I went to work for NBC in the News Department, at the Today Show, and with Gerald Green on instant specials. I wrote traffic reports for WNBC and was a ghost writer for Frank Blair. I was also the NBC Color Girl, actually one of three. We were used as human test patterns on all live broadcasts. That experience helped me have a long history of TV appearances later as a technician at CNBC, CNN, FOX and Bloomberg.

My options career began in the mid-1980s, when I was working for Thomson McKinnon Securities. I managed discretionary accounts and used options to both offset risk and increase income. At the branch office in Morristown, NJ, I gave options advice to my fellow wealth managers. I was also in charge of syndicate for the branch and worked with our regional syndicate coordinator.

While at Thomson, I bought a seat on the New York Board of Trade. I thought I knew a lot about options until I entered the ring on the floor there. I knew basics and soon learned the hedging techniques, and other strategies that Susquehanna, La Branch and other options market makers used. Eventually, I became a market maker myself.

Commodity options are a lot more flexible than stock options, as the spreads are tighter and the combos can include long/short positions paired with options. I remember a fund guy calling me up when I was a paper broker on the floor (that means I executed orders for brokers), telling me he had a huge loss in his Russell futures positions. He asked me if I could come up with a workaround for that position and I did. This is typical; they only come to you for help after they blew up the position. The good news is that I was really good at abstract thinking and was able to craft a way out for this guy. Yes, it took a couple of months to play out but it got him out with a profit.

I also came in third in the globe in the National Investment Challenge Professional Options Division. With the prize money, I took my son to Alaska and had a blast.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

At Thomson, I had the pleasure of having Art Kaufman as a person to look up to and to ask a zillion questions about the use and fun you could have with options, while creating value and removing risk in the trade.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

I love to cook, love opera, love music and enjoy growing beautiful plants. However, the most important accomplishments of my life are my children. I supported them all through their undergraduate education; graduate school was on them. One of my sons, Jordan Young, works for Bank of America as a technical analyst.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

Above all, I love markets. I have been a news junkie all my life and enjoy the fact that the markets are ever changing, yet the same. It is like doing a giant puzzle that never ends.

What it the most useful benefit of membership for you?

One word – education.

Contributor(s)

Jeanette Schwarz Young CMT, CFP, CFTe, MS

Jeanette Schwarz Young, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Manager at Kensington Capital. She is also the author of the Option Queen Letter, a weekly newsletter issued and published every Sunday, and the OPTIONS DOCTOR, published...

Chicago Chapter Meeting Summary

On Thursday, July 16, legendary trader Damon Pavlatos, founder of PhotonTrader Services, presented to the CMT Association Chicago Chapter in a virtual event. Damon provided a nice mix of trading techniques and war stories from his career on the CME and CBOT exchanges. For his trading, Damon primarily uses volume candles and market profile, and through numerous examples from the current market, the webinar participants were able to follow along with his trading process. It would be hard to not take away a few nuances that could be applied to your own trading. Damon provided his contact information (@DamonPavlatos) for any follow-up questions, and we were very grateful to him for sharing his techniques and experiences.

Contributor(s)

Matt Nygaard, CMT

Matt Nygaard, CMT is an Independent Derivatives Trader focusing on US futures and options, and he publishes market research for a small group of traders and for his own use. Matt has been a CMT since 2016, and he is Co-Chair of the...

New Book Corner

We love to let everyone know when members publish new books or series.

Kaufman Constructs Trading Systems by Perry J. Kaufman was published by Amazon recently.

This is a step-by-step guide to developing a successful trading system for stocks and futures. Perry Kaufman is recognized as one of the leading developers and consultants in the financial industry, with a successful trading record that goes back 40 years. He is the author of Trading Systems and Methods, 6th Edition, said to be the most definitive book in its field.

“Kaufman Constructs Trading Systems” answers key questions about trading systems and development asked by attendees at his conferences. It includes examples of how to construct and test systems and covers many more topics that are essential to success.

Readers will find a complete discussion of trend systems and mean reversion methods for both daily and intraday trading systems. Mr. Kaufman explains why certain markets trend while others are better for mean reversion systems. He gives you a deep understanding of the principles that make systems profitable. He steps you through the process from the idea to the rules, from testing to deciding on the final model.

Equally important are sections on the evaluation of risk, and ways to control it. Without proper risk control there can be no success. Then there is the challenge of deciding which stocks or commodities should be selected for your portfolio, for which Mr. Kaufman presents clear guidelines. The Appendix has a list of programs and spreadsheets available at no cost.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker. Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Singapore and Hong Kong Combined Chapter Conference Summary

On Tuesday, July 28, 2020, both the Singapore and Hong Kong Chapters of the CMT Association came together and hosted the first of an ongoing series of events featuring renowned technicians, mainly targeting our growing Asia-wide audience. The first combined chapter meeting that we had proved to be a really promising and exciting one with no less than 270 registrants that signed up for the event. It really showed that there is a growing interest in the discipline of technical analysis across Asia.

The main stars that anchored our first combined chapter event were Jay A. Petit, Timothy W. Hayes and Ayush Nagaraj. The combined chapter meeting was a causal one, with each speaker given about 15-20 minutes to share their views and round off their topic with a short Q&A session.

The evening online meeting kicked off with Singapore Chapter Chair, Jaime Coutts, CMT, CFTe, welcoming all attendees. Before introducing the first speaker, he covered the growing interest in technical analysis that Asia is seeing and how the CMT Association is the organization that can both help finance professionals in their career and also help develop a systematic and disciplined understanding of technical analysis through the CMT program. Jaime also introduced two new chapter co-chairs for the Singapore chapter – Wei Hao, CMT and Isaac Lim, CMT, CFTe. Hong Kong Chapter Chair, Li Zhao, CMT also took this chance to introduce a new chapter co-chair for the Hong Kong chapter – Ananda Bhaumik, CMT. It is indeed refreshing to know that there is a growing number of volunteers that are stepping forward to help contribute to the growth of technical analysis and CMT Association in Asia.

The first speaker, Jay A. Petit, CMT, founder of Charts Avenue, presented on the topic of “A Consistent Process for Positive Expectancy.” He covered key topics, such as risk and structural rules that he has in place to help him and his clients maintain a disciplined trading strategy. What was really interesting was that he broke down the entire trading life cycle into different categories such as Risk, Structural Rules, Trading Plan, and Routine with Discipline. Putting all these together on a regular and repeated basis will end up becoming a consistent process that helps contribute to positive expectancy.

The second speaker of the evening, Timothy W. Hays, CMT, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), was the headline speaker for this event. Not a stranger to those within the technical analyst industry, he quickly dove into his topic for the evening, “Cyclical and Secular Trends – Intact or in Trouble?” He started off by looking at three broad asset classes and their secular trends. Covering the S&P 500, long-term Government bond yields and NDR’s commodity index, he showed the secular bull and bear trends of each asset class and the per annum returns for each phase. Following which, he went into the specifics of each asset class, looking at their correlations as well as their long-term moving averages. Gold was shown to be within a secular bull trend as it was holding above its five-year moving average at time of presentation. Tim mentioned that we could see a further push up on gold with the current bull run at only 42% while historically, the all-time high was at 328%. He ended his topic showing a quick summary of NDR’s global stock/bond and cash recommendations and pointing out that the secular trend across assets is definitely still intact.

The third speaker of the evening, Ayush Nagaraj, CMT, co-head of Asia high touch trading for Bernstein, helped round off the evening beautifully by sharing his views on local Asia markets “from the trenches.” Ayush shared with the attendees the tools that he employs when it comes to observing and picking the equity counters that for his analysis and finally how he trades them. He started off by sharing how he identifies stocks within each sector by means of factor rotation and measuring trends on a ratio chart. Once he finds that there is a possible counter with good opportunities, he also employs the use of Tom Demark’s count to help give him better clarity on trend direction.

Between each speaker, there were interesting polls that were created with the help of Joel Pannikot, head of the CMT Association’s India office, and Barbara Terry from CMT Association HQ as well. Some questions that were asked focused on “Which asset will have the best YTD return by year-end 2020?” and “What is the year-end target for the spot price of gold?” It was an interesting way to engage the audience and also an eye-opener to see what the general market consensus was.

The evening rounded off with Singapore Chapter Chair, Jaime and Hong Kong Chapter Chair, Li Zhao thanking everyone for taking time off their busy schedules and making our first combined chapter conference a huge success. Truly, despite the lack of human face-to-face interaction given the virus outbreak, it has also given us the chance to come together in a different way which under normal circumstances, may not have been considered. I am looking forward to the next combined chapter meeting and I do hope that more of you will join us then as well! Cheers!

Contributor(s)

Isaac Lim, CMT, CFTe

Isaac Lim, CMT, CFTe is currently the Chief Market Technician at Everest Fortune Group. For his current and previous roles, he provides reactionary trading strategies and market insights on a daily basis to leading buy-side names and institutions. He has developed a...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Ryan Detrick, CMT Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial

Rakesh Gandhi, Technical Research Analyst at Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd.

Please take a few minutes to log into the website (www.staging.cmtassociation.org) and update your information if your company, address, or telephone has changed. To change the name of your company, please email admin@cmtassociation.org.

If you are having trouble receiving emails in advance of online chapter events, please make sure the “Do Not Email” box is unchecked in your profile.

CMT

If you haven’t already scheduled your CMT exam, we recommend that you do so as soon as possible.

Due to COVID-19, Prometric is practicing social distancing at their test centers and because of local government policies, certain test centers will only allow essential exams to take place; as the situation improves, more appointments will become available for test takers. If you have been turned away from a test center because the CMT exams were not previously designated “essential,” please try again as we’ve made some changes in how our exams are prioritized with Prometric.

Keep In mind that remote proctoring appointments are now available to CMT candidates for the December 2020 test administration. For more information about the requirements for remote proctoring, please click on the following link: https://cmtassociation.org/chartered-market-technician/cmt-exams-remote-proctoring/.

Don’t delay, schedule your exam at Prometric.com today!

If you need assistance scheduling your exam, please contact Marie Penza at marie@cmtassociation.org

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in July 2020.

Jon. E. Bloomer
Weisi Du
George Georges
Jeffery W. Gruber
Wei Kang Nah

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.