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Tom Bruni, CMT

Tom Bruni, CMT

Bio coming soon.

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            [post_date] => 2019-08-06 06:55:21
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            [post_content] => Once again, we find ourselves dealing with the external market forces of a China trade deal. Will we, or won’t we? But this time, China went into the currency markets and nobody liked that very much.

And the internal forces, somewhat internal, anyway, of the Fed dropping rates – giving the market what it asked to get – was not fun either. Apparently, it was not enough.

I get that the yield curve almost demands further cuts but the economy is also pretty much at the higher end of possibilities. Why exactly do we need cuts? To appease the bond market? Or is the bond market inverted because it knows the Fed will act?

What will the historians say in 20 years? I cannot wait to find out!

Gold has a long-term breakout. Copper looks terrible. Oil, too. The Baltic Dry rate is soaring but sources tell me it has nothing to do with demand, rather for ships out under adjustments. And the amount of global debt offering negative yields is at another record.

I’ll leave it to you to decide if that is reason enough to shun stocks. But a pundit – one who is not paid to advise investors - said on the tube this morning that a trade deal with China will be good for 5000 Dow points. A different pundit said that there will be a deal before the end of the year.

Hold your nose and buy? Again, that’s up to you. It’s a good thing you use charts.

In this edition, the summer doldrums have taken hold and there is not much sizzle to report around the Association. However, the meat continues to cook, from CMT testing to international symposium summits. The Association may not be making soundbites, but rest assured things are still happening.

For example, Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler reports on not one but two events in the planning stage for our overseas members. We welcome a new crop of freshly minted CMTs. And we are about to start accepting submissions for the Charles H. Dow Award.

In chapter news, we have two reviews for presentations by the same speaker in two different cities. It is interesting to see the different takeaways in nuance, although the main points were the same.

This month’s member interview is with trading legend and all-around nice guy Larry Williams. Larry is one of the most generous people around when it comes to sharing his accumulated knowledge.

And finally, this month's feature from Chis Cain, CMT, about his experiences programming with Python. Python has become the hottest programming language on Wall Street and is now being used by the biggest and best quantitative trading firms in the world.

Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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            [post_content] => The same old news seems to hang over the markets like a low level cow emission of uncertainty. Brexit – will it be hard or soft? China – will there be a trade deal or not? North Korea – nukes or no nukes? The Fed – quantitative tightening or not? Politics – not going there.

The new news was the Green New Deal, spearheaded by the freshman representative from New York. This supposed economic stimulus and equality plan was widely criticized for its disruptive goals and impossibly fast timeline. We’ll leave the debating to the debaters and concentrate on what that means for us and our investing clients. Basically, it means some industries will get a boost and others will get a drag, if not elimination.

Do we, or should we, really care about legislation that probably will not become law? The answer is yes, but for a reason any technical analyst should appreciate. There is already a trend in place towards a greener economy. Fully powered by the free market, we already see electric vehicles, high efficiency heating and cooling in buildings, natural gas heating oil and coal, renewable gas technology improving, solar and wind power costs coming down, and so on and so on. Green is coming, with or without a push from Washington. It’s what the people demand. They just don’t want to go cold turkey with no gas-powered pickup trucks, forced veganism and tripled electricity costs.

This month, we’re getting ready for the 46th Annual Symposium, scheduled for April 4-5 in New York. There is still time to register.

We also continue with our member interview series, this month featuring Mark Arbeter, CMT. In addition to this, we're carrying on the interview theme with a revisit to a presentation I did for the CMT Association last year called “Writing for the Media,” which teaches a few things about doing it right. And Lance Roberts offers some tips on being a good interview subject for TV or radio.

Minnesota and Chicago chapters sent in reviews of recent meetings and Tom Bruni, CMT and our own Tyler Wood reviewed the recent Chart Summit weekend in Colorado.

Of course, there is association news, including reason to show off your CMT designation. Be a CMT, loud and proud!

Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor, Technically Speaking
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