Letter from the Editor
This month’s issue demonstrates the rich variety that exists within the field of technical analysis.
- Todd Campbell presents quantitative analysis showing stock market behavior after VIX extremes. This is an example of using sentiment as an input into the trading process and demonstrates the value of sentiment when applied as part of a long-term analysis.
- Kenneth G. Winans, CFA, CMT recently published his second book, Investment Atlas – Financial Maps to Investment Success which documents investment returns using richly detailed charts to place market returns into historical context. If you ever wondered how real estate has performed in France or Japan over the past fifty years, this book is for you. Along with other esoteric asset classes, Investment Atlas also shows stock and bond returns in detail for various historical events which can help those who realize history tends to repeat.
- George Schade, Jr., CMT, is certainly one of those who understands the importance of studying history. He returns to the pages of Technically Speaking with a biography of R. N. Elliott. George is a renowned expert in the history of technical analysis and his writings always offer valuable insights into the minds of the pioneers of technical analysis. Sir Isaac Newton once said, “If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants.” George furthers our field by uncovering the all-too-often lost histories of the giants of technical analysis, making it possible for others to climb onto their shoulders.
- Mukul Pal uses cycle analysis to develop an analysis of what the markets may look like four years from now. It is interesting to consider how cycles are usually viewed as long-term tools but can be applied in the short-term as well. This would be application of Elliott’s work on the fractal nature of markets.
- Ashish Kyal applies traditional trendline and indicator analysis to the Indian stock market.
As always, we hope you find this issue of your newsletter to be useful. We also welcome your contributions and suggestions.
Mike Carr, CMT
VIX Profi tsby Todd Campbell
We crunched the VIX numbers since 1990. Position traders beware; the success rate for a positive SPX 1-month after the first +30 reading is most risky. 13 of the 40 distinct periods of +30 VIX since...
Investment Atlas – Financial Maps to Investment Success by Kenneth G. Winans, CFA, CMTby Ken Winans, CMT & Michael Carr, CMT
Technical analysts often look at charts of past price action to assess the current state of the financial markets. In this beautifully illustrated book, Winans has assembled a great deal of data to...
On the Campus: Technical Analysis on Campus at Rutgers Universityby Lawrence Laterza
The graduate level course in technical analysis at Rutgers University was originated in the early 1990’s by David Krell. He was followed by Bruce Kamich, who taught the course until 2003. Over the...
MTA Annual Award Recipient Profi le: Ralph Nelson Elliott
The Market Technicians Association’s (MTA’s) Award Committee seeks to honor the various Annual Award recipients with this profile series describing the individual’s life and work in technical...
Intermarket Cycles and the World in 2012by Mukul Pal
Editor’s note: This has been adapted from previously published client research. Some figures have numbers embedded in the graphics which do not match the caption number. We apologize for the...
Technical Analysis Warned of Indian Equity Market Crashby Ashish Kyal, CMT
S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index accounting for 21 sectors of the economy. S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd. This year has seen...
New Educational Content This Month
November 22, 2023
Utilizing Trend & Mean Reversion in Breadth Studies to Gauge Market Conditions
Presenter(s): Victor Riesco
November 18, 2023
Beating the Bench
Presenter(s): Scott Brown, CMT
October 25, 2023
Equity Risk & Potential – Q4, ’24 & Beyond
Presenter(s): Timothy Hayes, CMT