Technically Speaking, March 2025

It’s that time of year again when we turn our attention to March Madness. While that topic might seem off-brand, isn’t the bracket seeding system just another relative strength matrix? It’s how I sometimes explain in layman’s terms how we rank securities. While it’s tempting to choose that bracket-busting 16 seed, the reality is they only win 1.28% of the time. Winners tend to win. Having been in the independent RIA space for the duration of my 28-year career, my journey to discovering technical analysis was unconventional. But man was it transformational!

I started in the financial services industry in 1997 as an advisor at a small regional brokerage firm. Immediately upon entering, it became clear that the wealth management industry was broken. The focus was solely on the profitability of the firm and not the well-being of the client. The system was overrun with high-commission mutual funds and exorbitant stock transaction fees. I felt there had to be a better way; one that creates alignment between the success of the advisor and the client. In my mind, there was no need for those to be mutually exclusive outcomes.

Easier said than done. I found myself ill-equipped to rebut the dogma that was modern portfolio theory, which was the foundational doctrine supporting the shotgun approach to buy-and-hold investing espoused in our industry. Understand that the barriers to entry within the advisory space are low from an investment acumen point of view. In fact, even though I had attained the CFP designation, which is the pinnacle for wealth management, that did not provide me with even a beginner’s toolset for managing portfolios.  The best we could do was transition accounts to a fee-based platform, which is a step in the right direction. But we were then beholden to a recommended list of largely fundamental only money managers.

For those reasons, I became an early champion of the independent fiduciary concept, back when it was not yet fashionable. By putting the needs of our clients first, we developed an unbiased, product-agnostic culture that demands that we meet our clients’ needs with whichever solution works best for them, not which is more financially advantageous for us. Freedom of choice came with a caveat. Now we must create a process for due diligence and for constructing our own portfolios. While grinding through the CFA curriculum looking for answers, I was introduced to technical analysis by a colleague. My first foray into the discipline was a half-day seminar on the point-and-figure methodology led by none other than Tom Dorsey himself.  That opened Pandora’s box of self-actualization for me. The deeper I dove into the various disciplines of technical analysis, the more sense it made. I have always been rational as opposed to rationalizing. Definitive concepts like the irrefutable law of supply and demand with price being the ultimate arbiter rang true.  By listening and adapting to the market, as opposed to predicting and prognosticating, we could create synergy with our fundamental work.

The introduction of technical analysis into my investment process was the lynchpin for the creation of our multi-disciplinary, top-down, relative strength methodology. This process allowed us to simultaneously deliver quality investment results and scale our business. Understanding that portfolio success was more heavily determined by knowing which asset classes are supportive of higher prices at any given time, allowed us to view the thousands of investment choices as commodities. I don’t believe we get where we are today without leaning heavily on a technical foundation.

Much to my delight, the RIA industry started warming up to this client-first idea about 10 years ago and it has now become a tectonic shift. We had a head start evangelizing our story to like-minded advisors throughout the country who were looking to break away from their antiquated environment and elevate their practices. From one office in Clearwater in 1997, we now have a nationwide footprint of advisors in twelve states. To this day, our quest for fierce independence continues to keep us on the vanguard of industry advancements. Our mission is to continue to be client advocates and educate our industry that success can be attained without compromising ethical standards. I am extremely bullish on the groundswell of technical analysis permeating the RIA space and I believe there is abundant blue ocean ahead. Active participation as a board member of the CMT Association affords me a platform to help spread that message within the RIA community.

As you fill out office pool brackets, remember to let the trend be your friend. As for myself, the fact that Vanderbilt is a projected #10 seed with only a 39% chance of advancing to round 2 won’t stop me from penciling them into the Final Four. One-time behavioral heuristic exemption . . . Go Dores!

We are excited to announce the expansion of CMT Association’s Academic Partner Program (APP) with the addition of several prestigious institutions. This growth is a testament to our ongoing commitment and success in advancing technical analysis education globally. Our efforts in academia have not only enhanced the quality of financial education but also provided students with the practical skills needed to excel in today’s dynamic markets.

By integrating the CMT Program into their curricula, these institutions offer students access to state-of-the-art education, scholarships, and comprehensive resources, while also enhancing their global visibility and recognition. This partnership equips students with hands-on experience, practical skills, and networking opportunities that bridge the gap between theory and real-world application, preparing them for diverse career paths in trading, risk management, investment strategy, and more. Together, we are shaping the future of finance education and ensuring that the next generation of market professionals is equipped with the tools to succeed. Join us in celebrating this milestone and our ongoing commitment to excellence in technical analysis education.

• University of Finance and Economics:
https://cmtassociation.org/cmt-university-of-finance-and-economics/
• Indian Institute of Management Sambalpur:
https://cmtassociation.org/cmt-association-iim-sambalpur/

The inaugural in-person event of the CMT Global Black Caucus took place at the esteemed Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia, a landmark occasion hosted by Professor Matt Lutey. This groundbreaking event brought together students, faculty, and professionals in technical analysis, creating an inspiring space for education, networking, and mentorship.

The distinguished guest at this event was Ralph Acampora, CMT, co-founder of the CMT Association and widely revered as the “Godfather of Technical Analysis.” Also in attendance were the co-founders of the Global Black Caucus, Damanick Dantes, CMT, and Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA. Ralph, a living encyclopedia of technical analysis and CMT history, shared invaluable insights and stories from his decades-long career.

The event was structured into three segments:

1. Charting the Future: A Technical Analysis Deep Dive

The day began with a compelling presentation from Damanick, who spoke to the engaged audience of students, faculty, and CMT members. He explored the use of intermarket analysis, signal testing, and backtesting. These are all essential tools to enhance trend-following and mean-reversion strategies, using readily available software platforms. His talk underscored how data-driven strategies can empower the next generation of analysts to make smarter investment decisions.

2. Building a Legacy: The Mission of the Global Black Caucus

Next, Cedric took the stage to discuss the mission and vision of the CMT Global Black Caucus: to elevate the field of technical analysis by educating and empowering professionals of African descent to reach the highest standards in the industry. He introduced the audience to the CMT Program, highlighting its comprehensive body of knowledge and its pivotal role in shaping world-class investment professionals. He also spotlighted the CMT Academic Partner Program which is an initiative that the CMT Association partners with universities to integrate technical analysis into finance curricula. This partnership comes with scholarship opportunities and the Investment Challenge competition for aspiring technical analysts.

3. A Fireside Chat with a Legend: Ralph Acampora, CMT

The highlight of the event was a spirited fireside chat with Ralph Acampora. He shared the origin story of the CMT Association, how he, John “Johnny” Brooks, and John Greeley formed a group of analysts devoted to technical analysis, as “chartists” were often sidelined in the industry at the time. They sought approval from pioneers in the field like Ken Ward. That approval came with a caveat: members had to demonstrate their commitment by having already published market letters.

Ralph also recounted his memorable engagement with US regulators during the pivotal fight for CMT designation recognition by the SEC. He vividly recalled his 2004 presentation to the Commission, where he drew a powerful analogy: “Would you ask a lawyer to study for a medical exam?”. This was to make the case for the unique skill set of technical analysts. One particularly iconic moment was when an attorney asked him during cross-examination to identify a fact from a price chart. Ralph’s response has since become legendary:

“Price is fact. Earnings are an estimate. Companies are always restating earnings — but you never restate a chart, because price is a fact.”

The conversation concluded with Ralph and Damanick discussing the importance of integrating both fundamental and technical analysis to enhance investment decision-making. One of the most quotable takeaways from Ralph?

“The CFA gets you a job but the CMT helps you keep that job.”

The event wrapped up with an engaging Q&A session, where attendees asked thoughtful questions and received firsthand insights from the panel. Later, Ralph delivered a guest lecture to Morehouse students on the foundational principles of technical analysis, a once-in-a-lifetime learning opportunity that left a lasting impression. I was fortunate to attend and even had the chance to ask Ralph directly about trend analysis and multiple timeframe analysis.

We extend heartfelt thanks to the CMT Association’s Board and Executive Team for their invaluable support in bringing this first-person initiative to life. Special thanks to Ralph Acampora for his time, wisdom, and unwavering commitment to the Global Black Caucus. Deep gratitude also goes to Dean Gibbs, Dean of Business and Economics at Morehouse College, and Professor Matt Lutey for hosting us with such warmth and generosity.

The CMT Global Black Caucus remains passionate and purposeful in its mission to nurture excellence and representation within the technical analysis community. This event marks just the beginning, stay tuned for more impactful initiatives from the Committee!

“When you believe in things that you don’t understand, then you suffer… Superstition ain’t the way!” -Stevie Wonder 

The near constant talk about tariffs is creating a lot of volatility across financial markets, and it may seem like old political/economic regimes are being pushed aside. Save your political views for X and go scream at one another somewhere else on the internet. Here are some thoughts on new potential trends emerging in energy commodities: 

The long-term trend in HO futures (diesel fuel) has been down since June 2022. The chart above shows a 5-year weekly continuation chart of the 2^nd month. Focusing on the highs, we draw two trend lines. The first (yellow line) connects the two peaks within the downtrend occurring in June 2022 and September 2023. The second (orange line) connects the downtrend highs from September 2023 and July 2024. Additionally, we add Fibonacci retracement levels using the high and low prices over the last five years. (Side note: this chart includes all price action within the “Covid Era” which, I believe, will be historically significant and relevant price levels for years into the future.) The 61.8% retracement at 213 (green line) has been a good benchmark for technical support since it was first tested in May 2023. While there was one week in September 2024 where the market closed below this level, it quickly reversed the following week and has held ever since.

The two downtrend lines and the 61.8% Fib line create two descending triangle patterns in which the market has struggled to form a convincing break out from both overlapping triangles. While the market did break the orange trend line earlier this year, the rally was halted by two converging resistance levels: 1) the yellow trend line, and 2) the 50% Fib line at 258 (blue line).

Note the similar descending triangle patterns in RB2 (gasoline). The market was slower to break out above the second trend line (orange line). However, this rally was also halted by two converging resistance levels earlier this year – similar timing to HO2.

CL2 (WTI Crude Oil) follows a similar pattern as the refined products. In this market the 50% Fib (blue line) forms the support level of the descending triangle pattern. However, the breakout earlier this year failed in a similar way.

Zooming into 2025 price action in CL2 shows a clearer picture of the descending triangle pattern. While the market broke above the down trend line, the move wasn’t confirmed in HO2 and RB2. Most recently, notice how the market trades below the 50% Fib but fails to close below it.\

Has a new trend emerged yet? No, all three energy markets have yet to make a convincing break outside of their respective descending triangle patterns – despite significant and ever-changing headlines about tariffs and the economy. Keep an eye on these markets as the pattern continues to narrow through 2025. Step back from the noise (and superstitions) surrounding potential tariffs and their impact on energy commodities…remember market prices, and any trends that may develop, are far more important than the latest tariff headline.

The CMT Mumbai Community Meeting, held last Friday, was nothing short of extraordinary—a true celebration of the thriving technical analysis community in India! This incredible event was marked by an exceptional turnout, with one of the highest registration-to-attendee ratios ever seen in an India chapter meeting. The energy in the room was absolutely electric, creating an environment of collaboration, learning, and enthusiasm that made the event unforgettable.

The meeting featured brilliant presentations by some of the brightest minds in the field of technical analysis, including Aditya Agarwala, CMT, Aditya Iyer, CMT, and Joel Pannikot. Their insightful sessions covered a range of topics that left everyone in the room both inspired and motivated. From diving deep into market psychology and understanding its influence on decision-making to exploring the powerful tool of relative strength analysis, the speakers delivered invaluable knowledge that attendees could immediately apply to their own work.

What made this event particularly memorable was the strong sense of community it fostered. The room was filled with not only seasoned CMT professionals but also eager students and CMT aspirants. Everyone was actively engaged, asking questions, exchanging ideas, and connecting with one another. It was a wonderful opportunity to learn from the experiences of CMT veterans while also gaining new perspectives from those just starting their journeys in technical analysis. It was clear that this event was not just a one-time gathering but the beginning of an exciting journey towards further growth for the CMT Association in India.

A standout moment for many was the emphasis on “discipline over emotions”—a key takeaway from the meeting. This was a recurring theme throughout the presentations, reminding everyone that the market rewards those who stick to their rules and strategies. Attendees learned how using a disciplined, rules-based approach to trading and analysis helps reduce subjectivity and ensures more consistent results. Aditya Agarwala’s explanation of relative strength analysis, in particular, was a highlight for many, offering a fresh, actionable perspective on how to interpret market data and make smarter decisions.

The post-session discussions were just as dynamic, as the event spilled over into an extended networking session, with everyone eager to chat with the speakers and fellow attendees. The passionate CMT professionals—along with aspiring candidates—shared stories of their individual journeys, challenges, and growth, making the event feel like a true community gathering. It was inspiring to hear how the CMT program has helped so many individuals improve their decision-making, strengthen their market analysis, and find greater success in their careers.

A huge thank you must be given to LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) and Deepak Khurana for hosting us in their office and providing such a fantastic venue for the event. Special recognition is also due to Vaibhav Jain, CFA, CMT, Tejinder Singh Kodha, CMT®, and Madhav Prasad Pai, whose contributions to the event and the CMT community were invaluable. These individuals not only shared their own journeys but also offered important guidance and inspiration to all attendees.

The CMT Mumbai Community Meeting was more than just a single event—it was a powerful testament to the strength of the CMT community in India and the ever-growing recognition of technical analysis as a vital skill set in the financial world.

This event is just one of many exciting milestones that highlight the rapid growth of the CMT Association, Inc. in the region. We can expect even bigger and better events in the months to come, as the enthusiasm for technical analysis continues to rise.

The presence of CMT veterans like Vaibhav Jain, CFA, CMT, and Kapil Shah, CMT Level 3 Cleared, added immense value to the event, offering their mentorship and support to the next generation of technical analysts. It was heartening to see so many professionals come together, share their wisdom, and reaffirm the importance of collaboration in the financial industry.

As we look ahead, there is no doubt that the CMT Association in India will continue to grow and thrive. The support, passion, and energy of everyone involved in the Mumbai meeting have set the stage for even more impactful events. The future of technical analysis in India has never looked brighter, and the CMT Association, Inc. is poised to lead the way. We can’t wait for what’s next, and we look forward to continuing this incredible journey together with our growing community of CMT professionals and aspirants!

Don’t miss your chance to attend the CMT Association’s West Coast Regional Summit in San Francisco from April 4-6! Late registration is still open, offering an incredible opportunity for investment professionals to gain valuable insights from top experts in technical analysis. Whether you’re seeking to enhance your portfolio resilience, navigate uncertain markets, or sharpen your investment decisions, this summit is designed for money managers, market strategists, and institutional traders at all levels. With exclusive presentations, expert panels, and invaluable networking opportunities, plus a special wine-tasting tour through the stunning Sonoma Valley, this event promises to be both educational and enjoyable. Secure your spot today and join us for an unforgettable experience that will help elevate your investment strategies!

Join us for the 2025 CMT NYC Spring Summit at the stunning Hudson Yards, a must-attend event for financial professionals eager to deepen their expertise in technical analysis, market strategy, and cutting-edge portfolio management. Network with top industry leaders, gain valuable insights, and participate in thought-provoking discussions designed to help you stay ahead in today’s evolving financial landscape.

Highlights include:

• Mathew Verdouw, CMT’s exploration of next-gen portfolio evaluation with Variability Weighted Return (VWR), offering a fresh approach to performance assessment.

• Bill Kelleher, CMT, CFA and seasoned portfolio managers discussing strategies for protecting high-momentum portfolios in volatile markets.

• A dynamic panel featuring Jay Woods, CMT, Frank Cappelleri, CMT, CFA, and Katie Stockton, CMT, diving into market strategy for 2025, with actionable insights into interpreting price behavior, sector leadership, and macroeconomic forces.

Wrap up your day with a relaxed networking cocktail hour, the perfect opportunity to connect with peers and reflect on key takeaways.

Don’t miss this unique opportunity to advance your skills and expand your network in one of NYC’s most vibrant locations. Register before April 13th to secure your spot!

Register Now!

In this episode of Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association, we welcome Duke Jones, CMT, a Senior Financial Analyst in the Private Banking and Investment Group of Merrill Lynch, where he directs financial research and portfolio allocations for over $4B in assets.

Duke has been quoted in Barron’s, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and the local press. He is a member and former Director of the CMT Association, as well as a member of the CFA Institute and Houston Financial Analyst Society.

This was a fantastic interview. Duke has been in this industry a long time, and he’s humble enough to admit that he is still learning lessons, and he’s generous enough to share those lessons with our listeners. Keeping it simple, and waiting for the technical signal is critical, especially for portfolio managers. The market knows more than we do, and it’s not shy about showing us.

Click HERE to listen!

In this episode of Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association, we welcome Laurence Balanco, CMT.

Laurence Balanco, CMT is a Technical Analyst at CLSA Australia Pty Ltd. Lawrence has a broad array of knowledge of all the different markets, and a real unique perspective about pulling all these different markets together. Back in the day he was very a very heavy user of Elliott Wave. Technicians that can do it well can do it well, and he’s definitely one of them. In our time with him during this interview, we covered basically every market on the planet.

Click HERE to listen!

Market Misconceptions, Sentiment Mistakes, Favorite Timing Indicators

Mark Arbeter will discuss the many mistakes technical analysts, fundamental analysts, economists, media, and others make when analyzing the stock market and interest rates. He will also cover the numerous errors found in sentiment data and share some of his favorite intermediate-term and long-term market indicators for staying invested during the majority of a bull market and avoiding the brunt of a bear market.

Click HERE to watch!

Cryptocurrencies & Mass Crowd Psychology

Exploring the influence of mass crowd psychology on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, as it cycles through speculative highs and lows. The presentation also looks at the psychological biases driving investor behavior, how they impact Bitcoin’s price movements, and how understanding these factors can inform more strategic trading decisions.

Click HERE to watch!

We are thrilled to announce the achievement of 3 individuals who have recently earned their Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. This prestigious accomplishment signifies a remarkable dedication to the field of technical analysis and investment strategy.

The Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation is a globally recognized certification awarded by CMT Association. It reflects a deep understanding of market dynamics, proficiency in technical analysis, and a commitment to upholding the highest standards of professional conduct.

These newly certified individuals have demonstrated their expertise in interpreting market trends, identifying patterns, and making informed investment decisions based on rigorous analysis. Their attainment of the CMT designation underscores their commitment to excellence and distinguishes them as leaders in the financial industry.

In an ever-evolving market landscape, the expertise provided by Chartered Market Technicians is invaluable. Their proficiency in analyzing market data and identifying emerging trends equips them to navigate complex financial markets with confidence and precision.

We extend our heartfelt congratulations to these 3 individuals on their remarkable achievement. Their dedication, perseverance, and expertise serve as a testament to the significance of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation in today’s financial world.

Please join us in celebrating their success and wishing them continued excellence in their careers as Chartered Market Technicians.

• Branden DuCharme
• John-Davis Seelig
• Jin-Rong “Jerome” Tiong