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Technically Speaking, March 2019

The same old news seems to hang over the markets like a low level cow emission of uncertainty. Brexit – will it be hard or soft? China – will there be a trade deal or not? North Korea – nukes or no nukes? The Fed – quantitative tightening or not? Politics – not going there. The new news was the Green New Deal, spearheaded by the freshman representative from New York. This supposed economic stimulus and equality plan was widely criticized for its disruptive goals and impossibly fast timeline. We’ll leave the debating to the debaters and concentrate on what that means for us and our investing clients. Basically, it means some industries will get a boost and others will get a drag, if not elimination. Do we, or should we, really care about legislation that probably will not become law? The answer is yes, but for a reason any technical analyst should appreciate. There is already a trend in place towards a greener economy. Fully powered by the free market, we already see electric vehicles, high efficiency heating and cooling in

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

Letter from the CEO

by Alvin Kressler

I want to take a few minutes to highlight some of the changes to the CMT Program and our online presence, including changes to our website, that are ongoing. The first change, which we recently...

President's Letter Redux

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

This letter was originally published last month and re-ran in light of the upcoming Symposium. Symposium Time: Learn – Connect – Grow The 2019 CMT Association Annual Symposium will take place...

What Makes You a Good Interviewee?

by Michael Kahn, CMT

Anyone who manages money or sells research benefits from exposure in the media. Sure, we can get clients by taking out ads, but they are expensive and really do not work well. Or, we can cultivate a...

Member Interview – Mark Arbeter, CMT

by Mark Arbeter, CMT

What do you do professionally? I am President of Arbeter Investments LLC, which I started in late 2014. I write a weekly, technically-based newsletter covering the major indices, sectors, treasuries,...

Brandishing the “CMT” Designation

by Stanley Dash, CMT

Every CMT charterholder has worked hard to earn and maintain their charter.  What’s more, every charterholder has a vested interest in the CMT Association’s goal of “advancing the...

Chart Summit 2019 - Review

by Tyler Wood & Tom Bruni, CMT

Chart Summit 2019 took place February 22-23 in Breckenridge, Colorado, hosted by JC Parets of Allstarcharts and Brian Shannon of AlphaTrends.  Thank you sponsors Stocktwits, Optuma, Speedtrader,...

How to Write for the Media

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This month, we have part 1 of an informal block of “wisdom” on dealing with the media with more coming next month. Here is the intro to a PowerPoint presentation I did for the CMT Association in...

Minnesota Chapter Meeting - Notes & Review

by Kyle Lottman, CFA

The Minnesota Chapter met February 19 at Piper Jaffray Headquarters with featured speaker Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA, Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com. Here were his favorite trade...

Chicago Chapter Meeting - Notes & Review

by Jim Erdmier, CMT

The Chicago CMTA Chapter kicked off its first meeting of 2019 with one of its favorite guest speakers, Katie Stockton. Katie is a CMT and is the founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies....

CMT Association Mourns the Loss of David Fuller, Annual Award Winner

by Eoin Treacy

It is with the deepest regret I inform you David passed away on the 15th of January at his home in Devon surrounded by family, which is where he wanted to be. He is survived by his wife Graham, and...

2019 Annual Symposium Speaker Previews: Clare Flynn Levy & Emanuel Derman

Leading up to the 2019 Annual Symposium next month, we’re previewing two highly-anticipated presentations as well as the speakers’ professional backgrounds. Emanuel Derman is a professor...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:  Cesar Diaz-Loyo, Trade Finance Specialist at Cominvestment AG Muhammad Hafiz,...

Letter from the CEO

Letter from the CEO

I want to take a few minutes to highlight some of the changes to the CMT Program and our online presence, including changes to our website, that are ongoing.

The first change, which we recently highlighted in an email and which many of you have already noticed, is the gating we’ve introduced on the website. This gating is a form of member-restricted access, moving more of the Association’s content and programming behind a paywall. That means you must be logged into the website as a member in order to access this material. Some material will continue to be open to anyone, but most of the content will now be accessible only to members, who support the creation, delivery and storage of that material through their membership dues.

To that end, beyond the website, guests and non-members will now need to pay a fee to attend certain events (including chapter meetings and webcasts).

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Alvin Kressler

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President's Letter Redux

This letter was originally published last month and re-ran in light of the upcoming Symposium.

Symposium Time: Learn – Connect – Grow

The 2019 CMT Association Annual Symposium will take place April 4-5 in New York City.  We will gather with 250 or so peers and thought leaders from around the world and discuss markets, share ideas about all things technical, and size up the industry.  

Bill Kelleher, Tyler Wood, Alvin Kressler and the staff at the CMT Association have a fantastic program lined up with prominent practitioners from around the globe. This year’s event theme is Behavioral Finance. It’s a timely and important subject to understand. In fact, Richard Thayer received the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2017 for his work on Behavioral Finance; even academia recognizes the importance of this topic.  

I’ve made my plans to attend and I’m excited about our premier event of the year! Please consider joining us

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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What Makes You a Good Interviewee?

What Makes You a Good Interviewee?

Anyone who manages money or sells research benefits from exposure in the media. Sure, we can get clients by taking out ads, but they are expensive and really do not work well. Or, we can cultivate a client base that loves us so much they tell all their friends, who tell their friends. That takes years to develop.

The most efficient way is for the media to advertise our services for us in a “soft sell” approach. In other words, have reporters and bloggers quote us in their work for our expert opinion. It can be where we think stocks are heading. Or it can be how to invest every time a politician opens his or her mouth. Or even how to run a small business.

It does not matter. With 24/7/365 media – TV, radio, blogs, podcasts, books, YouTube – there is a huge, and I mean huge, need for content.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Member Interview – Mark Arbeter, CMT

Member Interview – Mark Arbeter, CMT

What do you do professionally?

I am President of Arbeter Investments LLC, which I started in late 2014. I write a weekly, technically-based newsletter covering the major indices, sectors, treasuries, the metals, and crude oil. In addition, I write a weekly market letter for Argus Research. I also trade my own account.       

How did you get there?

I got interested in the stock market as a teen in the late 70s. My doctor’s husband was a broker in Doylestown, Pa. He gave me some annual reports, the S&P stock guide, and the Trendline chart book. Honestly, the only thing, even way back then, that made sense to me was the chart book.

In 1977, after graduating high school, I started at Penn State Ogontz in their engineering program, which I chose because they made good money. I quit after a week. Eventually, I got a job at Penn Engineering & Manufacturing (PEM) in Danboro,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mark Arbeter, CMT

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Brandishing the “CMT” Designation

Brandishing the “CMT” Designation

Every CMT charterholder has worked hard to earn and maintain their charter.  What’s more, every charterholder has a vested interest in the CMT Association’s goal of “advancing the discipline of technical analysis,” as it has for nearly 50 years.

All of us further this mission in the work we do each day.  This includes pioneering new areas of research, interpreting market action in the interest of clients, and communicating responsibly about technical analysis’ strengths and limitations.

Another aspect of furthering the mission and promoting the responsible application of technical methods should be using our hard-earned “CMT” designation in all appropriate circumstances.  At the least, this credential should be part of our employment record.  And from business cards to promotional materials, on websites and research reports and at speaking engagements, it is important for us to make clear our commitment to this discipline, to its proper application, and to the Code of Ethics

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Stanley Dash, CMT

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Chart Summit 2019 - Review

Chart Summit 2019 - Review

Chart Summit 2019 took place February 22-23 in Breckenridge, Colorado, hosted by JC Parets of Allstarcharts and Brian Shannon of AlphaTrends.  Thank you sponsors Stocktwits, Optuma, Speedtrader, TradeIdeas, CMT Association, TrendSpider, TradingAnalysis.com, Investor’s Business Daily, and Investopedia.

Day One

Day one started off with a “Technical Analysis in Social Media” panel with host Sean McLaughlin, Howard Lindzon, Brian Shannon, Ian McMillan and Brian Lichtor.

The biggest takeaway from that presentation was how social media has the ability to accelerate the learning curve of financial markets and investing by providing access to information and mentors. The ability to identify and collaborate with a community of people who have similar interests is something that was much more difficult just a decade or two ago. As with anything there are bad actors out there, but if you put in the work to figure out who you are following and why, you end up with a curated

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

Tyler Wood

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How to Write for the Media

How to Write for the Media

This month, we have part 1 of an informal block of “wisdom” on dealing with the media with more coming next month. Here is the intro to a PowerPoint presentation I did for the CMT Association in 2018 followed by a link to the slides for that talk.

Let me let you in on a little secret. The last time I checked, which was a few years ago, one of the more popular media outlets for technical analysis was paying the equivalent of $6/inch of copy. Compare that to 25 – 50 cents per word or more that most magazines pay.

Why? Because the typical article submitted needs a lot of work in editing. They expect to spend quite a lot of time rephrasing, rewriting and reorganizing every article and usually they are right.

And that does not even address the content itself, which may not clear or even coherent.

Technical analysts are notoriously

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Minnesota Chapter Meeting - Notes & Review

Minnesota Chapter Meeting - Notes & Review

The Minnesota Chapter met February 19 at Piper Jaffray Headquarters with featured speaker Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA, Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com.

Here were his favorite trade ideas:

Japan – Watching another month or so to see if PPO (Percent price oscillator) breaks down. A break down in the JPY could take the markets lower. Noted a breakout in gold but the yen had not followed causing some concern.

Germany – Likes using Germany as EUR thermometer. The Euro itself looks like it is going to break lower, sitting at a two-year low and RSI is close to 30 for the past year. There is weakness outside the U.S. but not necessarily in the US. However, weakness overseas could eventually bring U.S. markets lower. Expects resolution sometime around 2Q

USD – Expects the dollar to go higher and likes using Pring’s special K indicator in his analysis. Would view a drop in the dollar

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Kyle Lottman, CFA

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Chicago Chapter Meeting - Notes & Review

Chicago Chapter Meeting - Notes & Review

The Chicago CMTA Chapter kicked off its first meeting of 2019 with one of its favorite guest speakers, Katie Stockton. Katie is a CMT and is the founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. As usual, the guests convened at The Chicago Board of Trade, despite the winter weather that plagues the city this time of year. We had a decent turnout considering the conditions: nearly 30 brave souls trekked their way through the tundra to see Katie.

She went over some of the tactics used at Fairlead. In their “Toolbox,” you will find some classic technical analysis indicators such as MACD, stochastics, and moving averages. However, they also employ some methods that are less common, such as the Cloud Model, also known as Ichimoku. Katie noted that the Cloud Model isn’t as popular in the U.S. as it is in Europe or Japan, where it is used as extensively as

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jim Erdmier, CMT

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CMT Association Mourns the Loss of David Fuller, Annual Award Winner

CMT Association Mourns the Loss of David Fuller, Annual Award Winner

It is with the deepest regret I inform you David passed away on the 15th of January at his home in Devon surrounded by family, which is where he wanted to be. He is survived by his wife Graham, and his two daughters, Grayson and Laurel.

He had been battling a heart condition for the last several years. Unfortunately, the muscle was too weak to operate on, so he had been balancing medications in an effort to keep swelling under control and succumbed on the night of Tuesday the 15th.

The family, old friends and I are very eager to organize a memorial service which we envisage will take place in conjunction with the dates of one of our London venues for The Chart Seminar. 2019 will be the 50th anniversary of The Chart Seminar and I think it would be fitting to time the memorial to occur around that time, since

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Eoin Treacy

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2019 Annual Symposium Speaker Previews: Clare Flynn Levy & Emanuel Derman

2019 Annual Symposium Speaker Previews: Clare Flynn Levy & Emanuel Derman

Leading up to the 2019 Annual Symposium next month, we’re previewing two highly-anticipated presentations as well as the speakers’ professional backgrounds.

Emanuel Derman is a professor at Columbia University, where he directs the university’s program in financial engineering. At the 2019 Annual Symposium, he will present a historical perspective on the applications of quantitative finance and the evolution of the discipline during the last century. Clare Flynn Levy is the Founder and CEO of Essentia Analytics, a behavioral data analytics service that helps professional investors make measurably better investment decisions. At the  Symposium, Clare will be presenting on Behavioral Feedback and Control.

The evolution of a quantitative approach to finance has proceeded through many small but significant steps and occasional large epiphanies. Derman’s talk will outline how, over the past 70 years, financial models have quantified the notion of derivatives, diffusion, risk, volatility, the riskless rate, diversification, hedging, replication, and the principle

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: 

  • Cesar Diaz-Loyo, Trade Finance Specialist at Cominvestment AG
  • Muhammad Hafiz, Deputy Director of Trading & Research at SIM Investment & Networking Club
  • Matthew Caire, CFA, CFP, CMT, Senior Vice President at Houston Trust Company
  • Vikas Bagdi, Technical Analyst at CapitalVia Global Research Limited – Investment Advisor
  • Panos, Director of HACSA Academic Programmes at Hellenic Association of Certified Analysts

CMT News

If you find that you are unable to schedule your exam at Prometric because the site is not available, please email Marie at marie@cmtassociation.org for assistance. Due to Ramadan, certain test centers in Asia and the Middle East will offer extended dates outside the June 2019 test window in order to accommodate all candidates. 

Don’t forget to register for the June 2019 test administration; standard registration ends on April 1, 2019!

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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