Technically Speaking, September 2020

There are many songs about the end of summer, most talking about getting back to work or school, essentially ending the lazy, carefree days. If that’s you, perhaps you forgot this is 2020! Up is down, Zoom is the word and Wednesday is Sunday (at Carvel). People cannot wait for fall, hoping that things will get better on the virus, economic and back-to-school fronts.

However, after several months of really good stock market action, September gave also us that rude awakening that stocks can actually go down, and by a lot, in any given day. Even worse, crude oil, after sitting there for months, looks terrible again. And the greenback, after hitting a multi-year low, looks kind of “bottomy.” Is that it for gold?

Never let it be said that the markets – all of them – are boring.

Now that we are all supposed to be back at work, whether virtual or in person, it is time to get back to our plans. Of course, not the same old plans, but plans to move forward, nonetheless. As you will see, content here is a bit beefier now than it was over the summer. And the Association is getting back to long-range planning and getting CMT testing back into gear. This month, we also announce the 2021 Charles H. Dow Award, with updated submission requirements.

Also in this edition, we have Rui Matos’ article on seasonality in the commodities markets, and how to hedge/profit using options. Alon Horesh shares his thoughts on Machine Learning with regard to finding support and resistance levels. And this month’s member interview is with Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry Research.

From the Association, we’ve got membership news, and an announcement for remote proctoring in the CMT exams. The Washington DC/Baltimore had a virtual meeting in July and offered a few notes about their guest speaker.

There you go. Keep your fingers crossed that we are on the road to normalcy.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Thank You Mumbai Chapter; The Future is Bright!

I want to thank the CMT Association India, Mumbai Chapter for including...

Read More

Secure Your Summit Registration Today

Last year, the inaugural CMT India Summit brought together the legends of technical analysis with the brightest minds in the...

Read More

The CMT Program is Back on Track

It would be an understatement to say that we have all been tested this year. The direct impact of the...

Read More

Announcing the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow Award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award...

Read More

Exploiting Commodities Seasonality with Options

Just as the global economy has cycles and economic changes that play an important role in commodity supply and demand,...

Read More

Washington DC/Baltimore Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

The Washington DC/Baltimore Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual chapter meeting on July 7, 2020. The featured speaker...

Read More

Identifying Support and Resistance Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Editor’s note – You might read this method for establishing highs and lows to be used in resistance and support...

Read More

Northern Ohio Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

On August 25, the Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting, “Understand the Anchored VWAP,” with...

Read More

Member Interview with Vincent Randazzo, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am a Senior Market Analyst at Lowry Research, which is known to...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Brendan McCarty,...

Read More

President’s Letter

Thank You Mumbai Chapter; The Future is Bright!

I want to thank the CMT Association India, Mumbai Chapter for including me in their August Virtual Chapter Meeting. I was very excited and humbled to join such a fine group of members, associates and friends to share ideas on markets, employment, and personal skills. It was a fabulous meeting with over 150 people educating, connecting, inspiring, and motivating each other.  Again – thank you to Joel Pannikot, Akshay Chinchalkar, Vishal Mehta, Abhishek Karande, and numerous other energetic volunteers and speakers for making it a productive meeting.

India is a very large part of the CMT Association’s future – and the future is bright!  I’m looking forward to the continued success in India and the growth of CMT charter holders. We are very blessed to have such an active and motivated group of volunteers there. I continue to challenge current charterholders to recruit and engage interested professionals to join our ranks. There is strength in numbers. Let’s keep the trend up and to the right.

Lastly – I would encourage all CMT charterholders globally to reach out and join in on the 2nd Annual India Virtual Summit which is scheduled for October. Charterholders, members and candidates receive free registration, and the content and speakers are top tier!

I wish you rewarding investing and trading.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

Secure Your Summit Registration Today

Last year, the inaugural CMT India Summit brought together the legends of technical analysis with the brightest minds in the business.

This year, we will explore how to “Navigate the Unthinkable” in a 2-day virtual event. This gives us the opportunity to invite legendary speakers who would otherwise have never visited India. It also lets us make Indian technical analysis talent visible to a global audience. The 2-day format is optimized to avoid screen fatigue, allowing you to maintain time for your personal commitments while attending the Summit presentations and panel discussions for only part of the day.

This event will be free for members and CMT candidates, but you must register to attend. Non-members are welcome at a nominal registration price. Secure your registration early, and evangelize your friends, as the non-member price increases on Sept. 20th.

We are proud to announce some of our confirmed speakers and look forward to introducing these esteemed voices over the next few weeks in preparation for the Summit. Additionally, as we continue our planning and confirmation process, we are excited to release the names of more speakers.

The 2020 India Virtual Summit will host Steve Nison, the voice of Candlestick Charting; Subhadip Nandy will join us to discuss his application of quantitative techniques; Dave Lundgren, CMT, CFA; Prof. Madhu Veeraraghavan; Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA and more will also be there.

We look forward to seeing you online!

Stay in touch with the latest on the speaker lineup here:

https://cmtassociation.org/events/2020-india-regional-summit/

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

Marianna Tessello served as the CMT Association’s digital producer from 2018 until 2021. She was responsible for the management of most of the association’s front-end digital assets during that time, including social media production, current website information and updates, and various communication...

The CMT Program is Back on Track

It would be an understatement to say that we have all been tested this year. The direct impact of the pandemic on the CMT Program was the postponement of the June 2020 exams. But now we are pleased to find ourselves just a few months from the December 2020 CMT exam window (December 1 – 15).

The most notable adjustment we made in response to circumstances is to allow for “remote proctoring.” This alternative testing mode is being offered in coordination with Prometric, the same company that administers our exams in their test centers around the world. Remote proctoring means that a candidate takes an exam using their own computer and in a venue of their choice. There are strict rules regarding computer hardware, physical space, and proper identification. You can find out more about this on the CMT Association website: Taking Your CMT Exam via Remote Proctoring. In the short term, remote proctoring should afford flexibility if any country or region faces a public health crisis as December nears.  Furthermore, our intention is to offer remote proctoring on an ongoing basis, using available technology to better serve our candidates.

We appreciate the patience and understanding shown by all the candidates who had planned for the June exams. We also welcome back many candidates who are resuming their studies after a longer hiatus from the program. And of course, we welcome all those who will be sitting for their first CMT exam.

Contributor(s)

Stanley Dash, CMT

Stanley Dash is the CMT Program Director at the CMT Association, a global credentialing body. In this role, Mr. Dash works with subject matter experts, candidates, and the Association’s members to maintain and improve the curriculum, the test experience, and the value...

Announcing the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow Award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160 submissions, and recognized 23 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium held in New York City each April.

The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding of market action, the concepts of technical analysis, and thorough research.

2021 Guidelines for Submissions

Andrew Thrasher, CMT, winner of the 2017 Dow Award, recounts his own experience with the Award below:

I have served as a Portfolio Manager for the Financial Enhancement Group, a wealth management firm in Indiana for the last nine years. No portfolio manager is able to adequality do their job without a great deal of focus on risk management when managing portfolios on behalf of clients. In part of my research into ways to evaluate market risks, I spent a great deal of time studying market volatility. In 2016 I began writing a paper on some of my findings that linked a common development in the movement (or lack thereof!) in the Volatility Index. I titled my paper Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami and submitted it for the Charles Dow Award. Several prominent technicians had won the award before me, and I knew the bar was quite high for my paper to be chosen by the committee. Then in early 2017 I received the call – I had won!

It was a great feeling to see my work recognized through this award and by the CMT Association. Since then, I have had the great opportunity to present to several chapters of the CMT Association and industry groups about my paper and share how I’ve expanded on the initial concept. I have also founded my own research letter, Thrasher Analytics, which allows me the opportunity to share my thoughts on the market and volatility each week with subscribers.

Of course, the year I won an award on volatility turned out to be one of the least volatile years in market history, go figure. But since then we have experienced several volatility shocks, sending our financial markets spinning. From the VIX-plosion in early 2018 that caused the closure of one of the most popular ETPs at that time, XIV, to the global pandemic that sent the equity market crashing in March of this year. Each of these, as well as several other less severe spikes in volatility, were preceded by the volatility pattern I discussed in my paper. It’s been a great honor to receive messages from people who have read my paper, made the concepts I wrote about their own and expanded upon the initial research.

My goal was to share an idea that I found extremely useful in my own process of managing portfolios on behalf of our firm’s clients but the end-result of winning the Dow Award led to many fruitful relationships and opportunities. I would highly recommend others to submit their own research for the Charles Dow Award. By publicly sharing our research, whether as an Award recipient or not, we as a community can help advance the practice of technical analysis and expand its use within the financial services industry.

For more information on the Charles H. Dow Award, please contact DowAward@cmtassociation.org.

Contributor(s)

Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Andrew Thrasher, CMT is the Portfolio Manager for Financial Enhancement Group LLC and founder of Thrasher Analytics LLC. Mr. Thrasher holds a bachelor’s degree from Purdue University and the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation.  He is the 2017 and 2023 winner of the Charles H. Dow...

Exploiting Commodities Seasonality with Options

Just as the global economy has cycles and economic changes that play an important role in commodity supply and demand, seasonal factors also impact prices. Seasonality involves fundamental reasons behind price movement in different markets.

In this paper, we will demonstrate how the yearly calendar can be used as a guide for some commodity prices as supply and demand change throughout the year, not just in grains, but also in the energy and metals markets.

This paper provides trade examples using seasonal charts as guidance for positioning when taking seasonal factors into consideration. Long-only, indexing, and other passive commodity investing strategies may not address seasonal factors, treating investing in commodities as if they were equities, even though they are very different. When considering strategies, seasonal trading can help or hinder a portfolio depending on whether one chooses to either actively manage seasonal trades or ignore the fact that seasonal factors exist altogether.

Exploring Seasonal Factors

Patterns can be found in usage and production that frequently affect price the same way at similar times each year. Seasonal factors are not set in stone, and not all years will produce the same (or possibly any) seasonal trends. However, seasonal factors can be combined with other investment aspects, such as technical and fundamental analysis, to act as a guide for trading commodity products. Combining multiple factors together can provide a bullish, bearish, or neutral bias, and therefore create a more defined picture of the price movement. This can help in placing trades that provide preferred risk to reward trade-offs in the direction desired.

Conversely, it is also important to consider that, if not intentionally addressed, seasonal factors could hurt performance. For example, if one consistently bought or rebalanced their corn position each June (when prices and volatility tend to be high), in the expectation of being profitable by year end, seasonal trends indicate that would be difficult to accomplish. In other words, if only buying in June, one would be typically be buying when prices are at their highest.

Seasonality Within Agriculture

Let’s explore corn investing further, as grains have strong seasonal tendencies. There are different seasons within grain trading, such as planting, growing, and harvest seasons. Planting and growing seasons tend to see the highest prices, due to the most uncertainty during those times. These seasons display higher volatility as people are unsure as to how robust the upcoming crop will be.

Planting season starts early in the spring and continues through June, and the growing season lasts until the fall harvest. Weather generally plays a primary role in corn pricing. Weather drives uncertainty of supply because of the amount of rainfall, droughts, and freezes that can all hinder a crop before harvest season, which runs through November. Because of the uncertainty during planting and growing seasons, volatility also tends to be higher during this period allowing for the potential of wider price ranges. Then, during the winter months, price consolidation is typically seen.

Strategies can be created around seasonal factors. Commodities have different prices across contract months due to supply and demand, and the cost-of-carry to hold that commodity until its expiration. If one is anticipating higher prices in summer compared to the spring, a diagonal calendar spread could be traded.

Diagonal Calendar Spread Example

In early February, one could look at a May/July spread in corn in anticipation of prices and/or volatility increasing during planting season. Such a trade could be:

  • Corn May contract price = 387
  • Corn July contract price = 392
  • Sell 1 May call contract at strike price 425 for 3 credit
  • Buy 1 July call contract at strike price 430 for 7 debit
  • Investment: -4 debit (Net of: outlay of 7 and proceeds of 3)

Therefore, one would pay a debit of 4 to enter the trade. The trade is two months wide (May-July) and strikes five apart (430-425 = 5). The graph below illustrates the potential profit zone, and the capped losses if price were to fall or rise greatly.

Strike prices, distance from the current price, future volatility, and determining whether to receive a credit or pay a debit all are factors to be evaluated when implementing a trade, as each factor changes the risk and reward amounts. One can adjust these factors around their profit and loss targets.

At the other end of the spectrum, volatility and prices tend to trend lower during the winter as volumes of the new crop have already been observed, and planting for the next year has not yet started. Since the growing season in the U.S. is on hold during the winter, and world stocks are known, there is less uncertainty to be had, which can result in fewer price fluctuations. During lower volatility periods, or if prices are range-bound, a butterfly or condor spread could be traded in an attempt to capture time decay with the lack of price movement.

Butterfly Spread Example

In early November, one could look at a December spread in corn in anticipating stagnant corn prices through the winter. Such a trade could be:

  • Corn December contract price = 385
  • Buy 1 Dec put contract at strike price 395 for 12 debit
  • Sell 2 Dec put contracts at strike price 385 for 6 credit each: 2 x 6 = 12 credit
  • Buy 1 Dec put contract at strike price 375 for 2 debit
  • Investment: -2 Debit (Net of: outlay of -12 + -2 = -14 and proceeds of 12)

Therefore, paying a debit of -2 to enter the trade with the strike prices being 20 points wide (395-375 = 20). The graph below illustrates the potential profit zone, and the capped loss (maximum of -2; the amount of the debit paid) if the price were to fall below 375 or rise above 395.

Those were just two of many possible spread trades that can be used to target potential gains while limiting risk.

An actively traded strategy has the flexibility to determine when to invest, and when to stay on the sidelines.

Agricultural commodities in particular stand out as a group of products that exhibit possible opportunities for generating gains from seasonal trading. For example, the chart below demonstrates the strength and weakness of soybean prices during calendar months over the last 15 years.

The graph identifies patterns that we just discussed in grains. For instance, June tends to present uncertainty as crops have recently been planted and severe weather due to droughts or excess rain, can impact soybean quality and yields. Total acreage of crops planted is also unknown in early June. Then, during June, USDA reports are released that provide planted numbers and provide guidance. Once the planted acreage numbers are known and new estimates are provided for U.S. and world ending soybean stocks, prices and volatility tend to decline during July and August. Prices can revive again around the fall harvest season in anticipation of final amounts and quality, and then prices typically become active again in the early spring.

Seasonality Within Energy

Seasonal factors are not limited to agricultural products. In the energy markets, supply and demand are the biggest factors for price movement, and weather is also one of the many factors affecting energy prices. Referencing a seasonal gasoline article1 published by the NACS, during the months of March and April, refiners switch to “Summer-Blend” gasoline blends from the “Winter-Blend”.

Summer-Blend fuel is more expensive, production takes longer, and it yields less gasoline per barrel of oil, in turn adding a premium to the cost of summer fuel. Crude oil prices also tend to move higher into the summer because of increased demand for gasoline due to the summer driving season. Gasoline demand typically increases beginning in February and peaks in August. Since gasoline is a product of crude oil, they both can experience price increases if and when this occurs.

On the other hand, crude oil prices tend to be weaker during the fall due to lower demand from consumers, and because refineries undergo maintenance while transitioning into the cheaper, and easier to produce Winter-Blend. However, if winter is unusually cold, heating oil, another product of crude, can see increased demand, increasing the possibility of a price spike in the winter. The same case can be made for other energy products such as natural gas, used for heating and cooling.

Therefore, with fluctuating prices and volatility levels between months, calendar spreads in energy products could provide favorable trading opportunities. The chart below shows seasonality of crude oil prices during calendar months over the last 15 years.

Seasonality Within Metals

Seasonal factors can also be present in not-so-obvious markets, such as gold. Gold is less seasonal than oil and corn because gold is primarily sought as an investment. It is mainly used as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and other economic maladjustments. Nevertheless, gold also has a seasonal aspect to it. In 2014, Casey Research published an article2 titled “Gold Seasonal: When Is the Best Month to Buy?” revealing strong months for gold, but also that over a 40-year period, March has been the worst-performing month for gold.

As for best months or time periods, in 2018, Forbes Magazine published an article3 explaining the reasoning behind gold seasonal purchases. It describes how during Indian Wedding Season, which runs from December to February, bullish price movement can be seen in the metal. Celebrating weddings with gold shopping becomes necessary as it is believed to bring good fortune. According to the World Gold Council, India accounts for 20% of global gold demand during these periods. Indian Wedding Season in turn has increased gold prices during this period 75% of the time from 2003-2017.

Similarly, as the Chinese New Year and Lunar Festival approach, strong China demand emerges. One can see on the graph below how prices increased in the very beginning of the year, then declined as demand lessened into March.

Calendar Spread Example

Using a seasonal spread trade, in November, one could buy a February gold call option and sell a December gold call option above the current market price of gold if anticipating prices to rise. The concept is to have the February long call capture the strong seasonality that starts in December and lasts into February, while the December short option has time value that decays faster (i.e. a higher theta). The December short call would ideally expire worthless (in other words, the ending price of gold in December would be below the sold call’s strike price), leaving the February long call to increase in value as the price of gold increases into February.

  • Buy February gold call option
  • Sell December gold call option
  • Ideally, the December call option expires worthless, leaving the long February call option

As stated previously, seasonal calendar spread trading takes long and short positions of the options in different months. This can be done at the same strike price (calendar spread) or different strike prices (diagonal calendar spread) depending on the amount of risk and reward objectives. Calendar spread trading can be used to exploit seasonal factors that affect supply and demand of the underlying commodity if the seasonal factors occur.

Regarding the spread trades discussed above, the next level of consideration – which will not be discussed in detail in this paper – should be examined. That is, how do volatility and contango/backwardation changes affect the profit and loss ranges. For example, a vertical butterfly spread (all contracts within the same month) can define risk more clearly than a calendar spread (strikes between multiple months) when considering volatility and contango/backwardation changes.

Investopedia Definitions:

What Is Contango?

Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price. Contango usually occurs when an asset price is expected to rise over time. That results in an upward sloping forward curve.

What Is Backwardation?

A market is “in backwardation” when the futures price is below the spot price for a particular asset. In general, backwardation can be the result of current supply and demand factors. It may be signaling that investors are expecting asset prices to fall over time. A market in backwardation has a forward curve that is downward sloping.

Seasonal Trading, The Undervalued Edge

In summary, it can be advantageous for an investment in commodities to use seasonal trading as a part of its overall strategy because some of the relationships are profound, having historical patterns of repetition, making it prudent to identify patterns seeking trading edges. Ignoring seasonal factors could provide headwinds to a general strategy providing exposure to commodities.

In our opinion, passive investing within the commodity space, using set periods of rebalancing and ignoring seasonal trends, not only is a missed opportunity, but can potentially hinder performance. Rather, active management that seeks factors such as seasonality can provide trading opportunities to be in the markets when most suitable, and allow bullish or bearish positioning based on seasonal tendencies.

Footnotes

1 NACS: Changing Seasons, Changing Gas Prices Feb 17, 2020 https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/Changing-Seasons-Changing-Gas-Prices#.WzF2IGQrIlI

2 Casey Research: Gold is Seasonal: When Is the Best Month to Buy? Mar 10, 2014 https://www.caseyresearch.com/daily-dispatch/gold-is-seasonal-when-is-the-best-month-to-buy/

3 Forbes: Will The Indian Wedding Season Arrive In Time To Support Gold Bulls? Aug 21, 2018 https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2018/08/21/will-the-indian-wedding-season-arrive-in-time-to-support-gold-bulls/#435c608b38b9

Disclosures:

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com and OptionVue.com. Unless otherwise indicated, any opinions or market observations made are strictly our own. All rights reserved. No portion of these materials may be copied, reproduced, distributed or transmitted, electronically or otherwise, or publicly disseminated without the permission from the authors. Some of the hyperlinks within this paper may lead to third-party Web sites. These websites are not controlled by, or affiliated with, the authors or Catalyst Capital Advisors, LLC. Authors and Catalyst Capital Advisors, LLC are not responsible for the content or privacy policies of these third-party websites.

This paper is intended for educational purposes only. Investing carries risks, which the authors do not assume for your trading. This brief statement cannot disclose all the risks and other significant aspects of the commodity markets. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition when considering whether to trade or to authorize someone else to trade for you. If you purchase a commodity option, you may sustain a total loss of the premium and of all transaction costs. If you sell a commodity option, you may sustain substantial losses beyond that originally invested.

Rui Matos, CFA, CFP, FRM, Portfolio Analyst, Catalyst Hedged Commodity Strategy Fund

Contact Info

kimberly.rios@catalystmf.com

rui.matos@catalystmf.com

 

Contributor(s)

Rui Matos, CFA, CFP, FRM

Rui Matos joined Catalyst Capital Advisors in 2020. He is currently a Portfolio Analyst of the Hedged Commodity Strategy Fund at Catalyst Funds. Mr. Matos has over 25 years of investment experience beginning his career on the interest rate swaps trading desk of...

Washington DC/Baltimore Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

The Washington DC/Baltimore Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual chapter meeting on July 7, 2020. The featured speaker was Frank Cappelleri, CMT, CFA, Executive Director, Instinet, who shared his outlook for the 2nd half of 2020, reviewing where we had come from off the March lows, up until now.

Frank gave a breakdown of each major sector, with important areas of price to keep monitor. He also covered the Advance-Decline lines, market breadth, and credit spreads. Further, Frank took on a virtual trip around the world to see how other countries fared during the rally, including Germany, China, and Brazil. Gold and precious metals are also catching Frank’s eye, and he took a deep dive into what could keep them going.

Contributor(s)

Ian McMillan, CMT
Ian McMillan, CMT

Ian McMillan is a Market Technician at Client First Tax & Wealth Advisors.  Prior to his role at Client First Tax and Wealth Advisors, Ian was a Senior Analyst based out of the Washington DC area.  Ian has been in the wealth...

Identifying Support and Resistance Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Editor’s note – You might read this method for establishing highs and lows to be used in resistance and support and say, just look at the chart. However, this article is about machine learning so it is critical to be able to mathematically describe what our eyes see as highs and lows in order to allow the program to find them for you.

Support and resistance zones in price movement have long been the basics for many traders as entry and exit points for executing orders. These zones are very visual in the aftermath but quite tricky to find while the price patterns are developing. This, plus the fact that a significant proportion of the support/resistance breakouts are false breakouts, makes it a challenge to trade consistently using these zones.

In this article, we will show how to find the support resistance zones and how to trade them efficiently using machine learning techniques.

In this article we will see how to:

  1. Identify support and resistance levels
  2. Develop a trading technique to profitably trade according to support and resistance
  3. Have a complete discussion on the pros and cons of trading support and resistance levels

Support and Resistance Levels Identified

Support and resistance levels are technical price levels indicating buyers/sellers imbalance, in case the imbalance is in favor of the buyers, the price moves up and vice versa.

Identifying S/R areas in a price chart is a visual process of connecting price inflection points that have, more or less, the same value, thus creating a zone. If the price crosses that zone, a buy/sell trigger is created and a position is opened.

S/R levels are very visual, nondeterministic, and in the eye of the beholder since there is no mathematical formula to calculate them.

Figure 1 – Support and Resistance levels in AMD stock

In order to mathematically identify areas of support or resistance, we first have to find the price inflection points where the price tends to move in the same way once it reaches that point and then test if the infection points are in the same area. If they are and there are more than two occasions where the inflection occurred in the same zone, we will declare this zone to be a support or resistance zone.

Support and resistance price patterns need time to develop and demonstrate the same behavior around the same levels to comply with the definition of S/R. The longer it takes for the pattern to develop and as many times the price demonstrates the same behavior, the better and more reliable the S/R levels are, and the subsequent trigger when they are broken.

First, we identify the inflection points by using first and second derivatives calculated on the price pattern movement. This will provide a list of maxima and minima to be used as the inflection points.

Figure 2 – Using 1st and 2nd derivative on the price data to identify inflection points

Local minima and maxima – First and Second Derivative Test

A function F has a local maximum at a point xm if the values for x ‘near’ xm are all less than F(xm).

A function F has a local minimum at a point xm if the values for x ‘near’ xm are all greater than F(xm).

Using calculus, we can use the derivative of that graph in xm to test for the value of 0 to see if there is a local maximum or minimum at that point.

Second Derivative Test for Local Extrema

The second derivative is then used to determine local extrema of the price pattern under these conditions:

If a function has a critical point for which F′(x) = 0 and the second derivative is positive at value x, then F has a local minimum here. If, however, the function has a critical point for which F′(x) = 0 and the second derivative is negative at this point, then F has local maximum here.

This technique is generating the inflection points for the next stage which is to group the points into a zone of either support or resistance.

For this purpose we will use clustering algorithm from a machine learning library (Python scikit learn, in my example). The clustering algorithm is used to cluster the inflection points into groups of approximately the same value. In this way, the maxima are grouped together to form resistance groups; the strength of the group (resistance) is then measured by the number of elements in the group, how close they are and the volume accumulated in that area. The more of these attributes present, the more reliable the trigger generated once this resistance is broken.

The same calculation is made for the minima, only this time the minima form the support group or support areas and the same calculation is applied to the minima groups to measure the strength of the group.

Figure 3 – Clustering Maxima and Minima to Support and Resistance

In the chart above we see the result of clustering the maxima and minima into groups and generating the support and resistance groups, then filtering the generated groups by strength and holding the remaining meaningful zones for further processing.

Trading the strategy

When designing the trading strategy, we use the naive approach of opening a long position when resistance is broken and holding the position open until it breaks support,
Here are the strategy rules:

Long Entry – When price breaks through an area of resistance

Long Exit – When price retraces and breaks an area of support

Position management- add to the position every time the price breaks another level of resistance

Backtesting Results:

Backtesting period: 2019-08-16 – 2020-07-29

Total Return:   65.85%

Sharpe:            1.35

CAGR:            65.85%

Conclusion

Support and resistance can be used as meaningful areas in the developing price pattern. These areas may be used for trading and executing long and short orders. The caveats of such areas are:

  1. It may take some time for the patterns to develop and this can be a factor in calculating the strength of the S/R level.
  2. About 50% of the breakouts are fake breakouts where the breakout is not going to continue and run up or down. In these cases, risk management techniques should be used to avoid big losses. The actual meaningful runs on real breakouts more than compensate for the smaller losses of the smaller fake breakouts
  3. Using the above trading strategy is somewhat limited as the exit is triggered on support breakouts (long positions), sometimes the run is parabolic not creating support to break, in these cases a smarter risk management regime should be used.

Contributor(s)

Alon Horesh

Alon Horesh is the Cofounder of AlphaOverBeta, a company that specializes in automated trading solutions, focusing on providing artificial intelligence-based solutions to fund managers and brokers all across the globe. He is an active trader in the US equity markets since 2005...

Northern Ohio Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

On August 25, the Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting, “Understand the Anchored VWAP,” with guest speaker Brian Shannon, CMT (Founder and CEO of Alphatrend.net). He got us up to speed on how to use AVWAP, allowing us to understand price, volume, time and anchoring to measure true supply and demand from any point in time.

Brian strongly encouraged risk management, and knowing where risk levels are with stops at all times. Getting stopped out is no reason for discouragement; one should move on to the next trade. Among his most enthusiastic points during his presentation included: finding your own way, and there is no perfection in the markets.

Special thanks to our India colleagues that woke up in the middle of the night to attend our presentation. The Northern Ohio chapter looks forward to hosting our next event in a few months, so stay tuned.

Contributor(s)

Kevin C. Pietrzyk, CMT, CFTe

Kevin C. Pietrzyk, CMT, CFTe is an accomplished investment professional with 10+ years of investment experience, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and foreign currencies. He always brings 100% to the work that he does with client investments. Outside of his work, Kevin...

Member Interview with Vincent Randazzo, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am a Senior Market Analyst at Lowry Research, which is known to many members as former CMT Association President Paul Desmond’s shop.

How did you get there?

Before graduating college there were two courses of action that allowed me to follow the path of studying the stock market. First, in my last two years of school, I was able to secure relevant internships – one at Salomon Smith Barney assisting the largest group at a local branch, and the other at a small investment consulting firm called Portfolio Evaluations, Inc. Second, starting in fall of my senior year, I networked with alumni who also graduated with an economics degree and worked in the financial services industry. Eventually, the combination of my passion for the markets and persistent networking paid off with my first full-time job at Morgan Stanley in equity research sales early in the summer of 2002 after graduation.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

During my first few months at Morgan Stanley, co-workers piqued my interest in technical analysis. Rick Bensignor, who I watched call the 2002 market bottom from the same floor I worked on during a live CNBC interview, was an early mentor. His mastery of market timing was compelling and amazing to me as a kid out of school who was continuously told that technical analysis doesn’t work. As my early experience at Morgan Stanley with Rick and his team, Katie Stockton and Mark Newton, very clearly demonstrated – technical analysis, in the right hands, really does work!

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

In terms of understanding the whole lay of the land for technical analysis it was “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” by John Murphy. “Technical Analysis Explained” by Martin Pring was another of the earliest, most influential books in my journey.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

Even though I moved down here to South Florida from the NY area several years ago, I still love to go to the beach with my family. I also enjoy biking, cooking, and traveling.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

I came to the CMT Association to formalize my interest in technical analysis by working toward the CMT designation to set me apart from others in my career pursuits.

What is the most useful benefit of membership for you?

What I have enjoyed most about being a part of the CMT Association is the ability to contact a complete stranger, because as fellow technicians, we are always willing to chat and help. I enjoy taking the time to speak to colleagues in the field or those interested just coming out of school like I once was. We are a community, and I owe my career path and a number of successes to that community.

Contributor(s)

Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT

Vincent Randazzo, is the Head of Technical Research at CFRA and Chief Market Strategist at Lowry Research, a CFRA business. Vincent produces written and recorded stock market research based on Lowry’s proprietary, statistically driven measures of equity market demand/supply and breadth. Prior...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Brendan McCarty, CMT, Principal at Column E Management, LLC

Guy Ortmann, CMT, Director of Research/Senior Technical Analyst at R.F. Lafferty &Co. Inc.

William Lyman, CFA, Strategic & Financial Advisor and Shareholder at Skills Union, and Head of Finance & Corporate Development at Algorithmic Objective Corp.

CMT

Late registration for the CMT exams is open until November 13, 2020; the exams will take place December 1-15, 2020.

Now is a good time to starting thinking about the ID you will be bringing to the Prometric test centers for the December 2020 test administration.  If your passport or license needs to be renewed, today is the time to do it, as Prometric will not accept IDs that are not current and valid.

Acceptable forms of identification include: valid passport, driver’s license (with signature), employee ID card (with photograph) and state ID card. Please note, candidates taking the exam outside their country of citizenship must present a valid passport. The name on your valid form of ID must exactly match the name that you used to register for the exams. This is the only form of acceptable identification.

Also, candidates from Egypt, India and Vietnam must present a valid passport. The National ID Card will not be accepted as an ID as it does not bear a signature.

If you find that you are having problems renewing your ID due to COVID-19, please email admin@cmtassociation.org at least two weeks before the exams begin.

Stay well and safe.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.