Technically Speaking, November 2021

The value of the CMT designation has been a subject of discussion between my financial industry colleagues and me, both inside the Association and out, for the entire time I have been a member – that’s 20 years. Like Technical Analysis itself, some people think the usefulness of the CMT is debatable.

In this month’s President Letter, I want to share with you my perspective on how the CMT designation can advance your career and simultaneously add value.

I’m guessing that very few of you reading this letter are pure, technicals-only traders. I’m talking about people who don’t read the news, turn off the TV, and sometimes don’t even know what the company behind the ticker symbol actually does!

Instead, you are likely someone who has a role at a financial services firm and your job requires skills besides just technical analysis. Since you are likely well versed in technical analysis (with the CMT under your belt), you probably do a good job of blending technicals and fundamentals, and you can explain to others about how technical analysis bridges the gap between price and intrinsic value.

For most of my career, I was a sell-side equities analyst working at a boutique investment banking firm. As the company’s only CMT charterholder, I was responsible for writing technical analysis commentary for the daily newsletter and delivering my market outlook each morning at the sales meeting. Clients with market-timing or trading related questions were directed to me. Anyone at the firm who wanted to know about stock price performance came to see me. I performed this function in addition to my “normal” job role of doing fundamental analysis on covered companies (earnings estimates, buy/sell/hold recommendations, etc.). But, it was the technical analysis I was best known for.

I knew that my job as an analyst was not solely based on my CMT designation. Yet, having the CMT designation qualified me to provide a valuable, specialized service that no one else at the firm was capable of doing: blending technicals with fundamentals.

Of course, not all CMT charterholders are sell side analysts with a built-in stage for showcasing the value of TA in the investment management process. But, whether you are a portfolio manager, investment advisor, or a trader, you are very likely performing some kind of blended, “fusion” analysis that incorporates technical analysis, and your colleagues know you for it.

Now, evaluating whether the CMT designation is worthwhile should not be confused with whether any professional designation is worth pursuing. If the argument against getting the CMT designation were to include the premise “you can learn everything you need to know on the Internet,” then NO professional designation is arguably worthwhile. Moreover, why even go to college if you believe that?

Let’s assume that as financial professionals we share these basic objectives: 1) maintain and increase our incomes, 2) promote our reputations, 3) be ethical and help others to prosper. A well designed and high-quality professional designation will dramatically help to achieve goals 2 and 3. The CMT Program is a high-quality credentialing program, with a very well developed and highly regarded curriculum. Additionally, our ethics requirement is second to none, literally, as we use the code of ethics developed and used by the CFA Institute.

By quickly and easily proving to colleagues that you understand and can use technical analysis and that you adhere to a strict code of ethics, you support your efforts to achieve the number 1 goal of increasing your income.

From an outsider’s perspective – someone who only knows fundamental analysis – your use of technical analysis is probably perceived as entirely attributable to the CMT designation and what you learned from the curriculum. Without the CMT, you are left having to somehow explain your qualifications in the subject.

Finally, as you know, the field of technical analysis is always gaining in popularity and acceptance. The behavioral finance foundations of TA are now considered basic elements of financial analysis. Momentum is a well-established source of alpha in factor models. Cryptocurrencies as an asset class is rapidly being accepted worldwide, with technical analysis as the only tool available to trade them.

As technical analysis becomes more mainstream, branding yourself as a CMT charterholder tags you with the awesome legacy of price analysis, going back to the Dojima Rice Exchange and the writings of Charles H. Dow. Who wouldn’t want to claim that legacy as their own? Not to mention, associating yourself with the founders of the Market Technicians Association and all the important contributions they made to the field.

The bottom line is that the CMT designation is unique among professional designations, allowing you to differentiate yourself, while the increasing usefulness of technical analysis and the historical legacy of its place in Finance will elevate your status among peers.

If you believe US stocks entered a secular bull market when they broke above their 2007 peak to record highs in 2013, you likely think the current uptrend still has years of gas left in the tank. Identifying areas of future resistance and support can help set expectations as to where stocks may trade in the future, and better prepare you to trade around them.

To do that, utilizing fibonacci extension levels based on the centuries old mathematical formula discovered by Leonardo da Pisa has proven to be a reliable method for technical analysts.

Whether it’s because the mathematical string of numbers that govern the growth and retracement of everything from trees to ocean waves also impacts stock prices, or simply because enough traders apply them to their charts, fibonacci analysis works.

Specifically in forecasting reliable levels of support and resistance when applied to an emotional high and low of a widely followed security that has undergone significant volatility.

Let’s apply this methodology to the S&P 500. Looking at a monthly chart, my eyes tend to gravitate towards the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. It was an incredibly emotional period for investors, in which the stock market experienced a more than 50% drawdown in 17 months.

Applying fibonacci extensions to the GFC ripple, represented by the high of 2007 and the low of 2009, generate various price targets that ultimately served as important levels of support and resistance, even as recently as last month.

The 161.8% fib extension from that ripple is about 2,140, which served as a lid for the index for nearly two years before stocks resolved higher after the 2016 presidential election. Then in late 2019, another extension from the GFC ripple served as a level of resistance for stocks. This time it was the 261.8% fib around 3,050, which kept a lid on the market for about 4 months until breaking higher.

But once the index broke above that level in late 2019, it looked back almost immediately, creating a false breakout and falling 35% thanks to a global pandemic.

During the March 2020 sell-off, a key level of support worth monitoring was the 161.8% fib extension near 2,140. And while not to a tee, it did get close, with S&P 500 futures falling to a low of 2,174 on March 23, 2020, ultimately marking the bottom.

Fast forward to just last week, and the S&P 500 closed above its 423.6% fib extension from the GFC ripple for the first time ever at about 4,515. That’s after the index sold off about 5% from that same level in September.

So where to next? If the S&P 500 can decisively hold above 4,515 into year-end, technical analysts should keep the 685.4% fib extension on their radar as the next potential long-term resistance. That’s around 6,900, or 50% upside from current levels.

Of course, if you lean bearish and think the recent October surge will turn into another false breakout like early 2020, then the 261.8% fib extension at 3,050 would be an obvious level of support to watch, representing potential downside of 34%.

But before you turn bearish, consider the fibonacci extensions from the Nasdaq’s highly emotional 2000 dot-com bubble.

The tech-heavy index is still about 17% away from hitting its 423.6% extension, suggesting the trend in stock prices will remain up and to the right, at least until that objective is reached.

Fibonacci retracements and extensions represent just one tool technical analysts can use to help identify future long-term areas of support and resistance.

Last November the announcement of a Covid Vaccine coming to market sprung equities back into high gear after a two-month respite. A return to normalcy danced in investors’ minds and a rotation from “stay at home” stocks (QQQ) to “recovery” stocks (IWM) was on. The table now appears set for a similar broad market rally sparked by another baton pass.

Seasonals

November begins the cooperative six months for equities. Starting in 1950 $10,000 invested in the DJI on May 1st and put under the mattress on Halloween through the following April 30th then repeated through 2014 netted a loss of $221! Yup over 64 years. Flip flop the six-month period and the nest egg grows to $838,486. Add a simple MACD Crossover signal and May-Oct drops to $6,499 while Nov-Apr grows to $2,389,552. This slide always stopped the audience when I did seminars. The MACD Crossover occurred in the S&P 500 on October 8th and the index rose over 5% into the end of the month. Good start for the cooperative season. Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac

Collective Breakouts

Several key Indices/Sectors have broken out of well-formed bases or are on the verge of doing so. When this chart pattern dominates the technical landscape, as it does now, intermediate term higher prices usually ensue. In the chart above the Russell 2000 should break out of its eight-month base in November and lead the next leg as it did a year ago. Below are three that have already broken out and other percolators include the all-important Semiconductors, Value Line Index, MidCaps, Energy, Basic Materials, Home Builders, Retail and several foreign bourses.

Dow Theory

The Dow Industrials have a similar look to the break outs above. Its close cousin the Transports were behaving more like a lost step child through the summer. Come October this key sector was 12% below its May high. A furious four-week rally took the index to within a whisper of an all time closing

high. I imagine by the time you read this piece that data point will have been attained? This will confirm the DJI high and the intermediate-long term Dow Theory signal will have been fired.

Failing Sell Signals

Another encouraging data point for the bullish backdrop are failures of sell signals. The Q’s led the rally in October and formed a stark MACD Negative Divergence on the two-hour chart Wednesday the 27th. Thursday afternoon AMZN and AAPL (19% of the index) both released disappointing Q3 earnings. Aftermarket trading that day had the Q’s down 1% indicating the MACD signal was executing well?

Q’s were still down 1% at the open Friday (Oct 29th) only to close at an all time high by day’s end. Typically, a sell signal like this usually lasts a few days, not three hours. A year ago, the Vaccine Rally began and these sell signals consistently failed into spring. A failure of a relatively strong signal is a relatively strong signal in the opposite direction, especially when it pulls off an ATH! Buy The Dippers appear back in charge.

Special Situation Sector

One of the more beaten-up sectors this year has been the Biotechs. The index is well off the highs the group made in February and has now formed a Positive MACD Divergence. Risk/reward appears reasonable with a bounce to the summer highs realistic and a stop just below 5500 appropriate. ETF’s to consider would be IBB (Big Caps), XBI (Small/Mid Caps), and ARKG (Disruptors).

Conclusion

The technical landscape has filled the Bulls sail, as they did a year ago, and another leg higher appears underway? An added potential bullish dynamic is sideline cash that is waiting for a correction. They could end up having to chase prices to satisfy performance numbers and yearend bonuses. A Déjà Vu melt up akin to winter 2020 looks to be a decent probability?

This could be the last leg of the QE Bull Market started in 2009 as the Fed’s messing around with Mother Nature meets Law Of Diminishing Returns. Several longer-term charts do point to a potential topping process later next year. In the meantime, make hay!

It was nearly fifteen months ago that Gold (XAUUSD) had marked its high of 2079 in August 2020. Since the marking of this high point, Gold has shown corrective retracement and it has not taken any major directional cue over the past many months. If we subject the chart to a basic pattern analysis, Gold prices are in a Symmetrical Triangle formation. Within this large symmetrical triangle, which has formed over the past ten months, the past five months have seen the price trading in a very narrow and defined range between 1750 and 1825.

The underperformance of Gold can be attributed to more than one reason. Firstly, it is beyond doubt that such safe-haven assets like Gold tend to take a backseat when there is prevalence of a risk-on environment in the markets. Risk-on environment prevails when investors tend to prefer riskier assets against the safer ones. Equities clearly outperformed during the last twelve months, reflecting this asset allocation preference of the Investors.

Another important reason for the Gold to have relatively underperformed was that during this very time, US Dollar Index (DXY) formed a major base and reversed its trend.

The weekly chart of Dollar Index shows a sharp decline from the levels of 99 to 89 during these months. However, the pattern analysis shows the RSI showed a strong bullish divergence against the price. While the price formed sharply lower bottoms, the RSI did not, and this led to the strong bullish divergence against the price. After the weeks that followed, the Dollar Index formed a base and rose while testing levels of 94.50. However, at present, we see that the Dollar Index is resisting pattern resistances represented by simple extended trend lines and is likely to consolidate between 93-94.50 range.

It is during this time, that there are higher chances of Gold (XAUUSD) reversing its relative underperformance.

Symmetrical Triangle patterns are usually neutral formations; however, the resolution of such patterns can be anticipated with the help of other pieces of evidence present on the chart. Currently, the price, which is in a narrow congestion zone within the area pattern formation, may see some upward revision in the price. Presently, the price is the middle of the 10-Week MA and the 40-Week MA which presently stands at 1780 and 1791 respectively. The 10-Week MA is moving towards crossing above 40-Week MA in the coming weeks. The RSI is neutral; subjecting it to pattern analysis shows it is trying to move out of the sideways trajectory.

The weekly MACD has confirmed a positive crossover; it is bullish and above its signal line.

From the technical perspective, if Gold is able to defend the 1720-1740 zone, there are greater chances of it moving towards the 1860, and 1915 levels. However, this view would be nullified if Gold slips below 1720 on a closing basis.

Here’s the thing about options trading: you can make it as complicated as your heart’s content. And there are plenty of incredibly smart practitioners out there who run amazingly complex strategies involving all kinds of volatility and statistical arbitrage.

They analyze 3D volatility surface graphs, use lesser understood greeks, and interpret things like “volatility smile” and dispersion.

If that works for you, great! I always say: if it works, do more of it!

But another beautiful thing about options trading is that there are many different ways to pull profits out of the market, and most of them aren’t as complicated as they may sound — even if the strategies have exotic sounding names like “iron condor” or “broken-wing butterfly.”

And my absolute favorite options strategy isn’t even really a strategy at all — it’s simply buying long calls when I’m bullish!

It’s the most basic of basic ideas. I pay a premium to purchase a call option, and if the stock or underlying goes up I make money and if it goes sideways or down, I lose money. But I can’t lose anything more than the purchase price of said option. It’s got risk management already built in! Easy.

I’ve oversimplified, but you catch my drift.

The first way I tilt edges in my favor with long calls is to only purchase them when implied volatility is relatively low. The surest way to lose money in a long call is to overpay. And if volatility is high (for whatever reason), then premiums will be elevated and I’ll look for a different strategy to express my bullish thesis.

Assuming volatility is low and I’ve gone ahead and purchased the call options, another way I tilt edges in my favor is to systematically reduce risk when a position goes my way. I’ve made it a best practice to sell half of my position if the calls have doubled in value. For example, if I purchased ten calls for $1.00 each, that would represent a $1,000 investment (multiply the premium paid for each option contract by 100 as each contract offers the right to purchase 100 shares of stock). If the value of the calls doubled to $2.00 per contract, I will sell five of my ten calls, which would net me a $1,000 credit.

This accomplishes a number of things for me:

1. Receiving the $1,000 credit for the 5 contacts I exited nets against the $1,000 debit I paid to enter the 10 contracts, leaving me with a net cash flow of zero while still holding the remaining 5 long calls! This means I’m essentially now holding these 5 calls for free!

2. As breakouts fail often, this protects me from turning a winning trade into a loser and increases my overall win rate when viewed over a longer series of trades.

3. Selling half dramatically reduces my temptation to trade out of an entire position too soon. As a position goes my way and profits begin to pile up, the daily and intraday PnL swings begin to increase in magnitude. At best, these swings become a distraction. At worst, they trigger all kinds of bad fear and greed impulses — none of which result in smarter decision making. Taking my original risk off the table is my way of saying to myself: “Ok Sean, now you’re playing with house money. Chill.”

4. Playing with house money gives me tremendous confidence to hold on to a position and play for a big win. To really go for the “unlimited profit potential” that is the embedded allure of any long call option. The Big One doesn’t come along often. Maybe once or twice a year. But you only need one to make your whole year and if I’m lucky enough to get ahold of two or three of them, then it becomes a very good year indeed!

Do I need twin advanced degrees in quantum mechanics and thermodynamics to work the math of a simple long call trade? Of course not.

I like to keep things simple around here. It helps me sleep and it keeps me out of trouble.

If nothing else, I hope this little riff on long calls inspires you to keep things simple. Do you have any fun stories about an adventure with long calls positions? I’d love to hear it. Shoot me a note — [email protected] or @chicagosean.

As a Canadian, I can tell you that our markets are generally very dull and slow. It consists primarily of what traders hate to trade and stocks that are not appealing to talk about for those that typically trade the more exciting sectors like tech stocks and EV’s.

However, if you break down our economy into its significant parts, we see strength from all sides. If you look at the strongest S&P 500 sectors YTD (See figure 2), you will see that they line up very well with the breakdown of the Canadian markets.

Let’s go over those top sectors’ charts keeping in mind that if we are right about how these sectors will move, we will most likely be right about how Canada and its currency as a whole will move.

Financials

Making up over 1/3rd of the Canadian index, financials are of the utmost importance for our overall markets.

We have broken out of a large weekly base with conviction on one strong weekly candle.

Energy

Depending on when you anchor your starting point, energy has been underperforming over the long run but with some tremendous relative strength over the last few weeks. This could be a catchup trade if XLE breaks out of pre-pandemic highs like the other sectors on this list.

Higher than the other stocks when looking at the pre-pandemic highs but still range-bound since April, industrials make up 10% of the Canadian index.

Breaking down the major components of the Canadian market show industries that are vastly overperforming the markets as a whole and have great-looking technical setups for the future as well. As traders and investors, it always benefits us to look at where the money is flowing, and as of writing this to my eye, it seems like it’s flowing into all places that benefit Canada.

As you can see from the iShares Canada, the market is seeing this with a break to new all-time highs out of a base recently.

A measured move of the trend going into this base puts us into space, but looking at the range of the base and adding it to the breakout still gives us a near 15% return to look at.

For our penultimate season one episode of Fill the Gap, we are very fortunate to feature an in-depth conversation with Irusha Peiris, CMT.

Not only has Irusha been practicing the CAN SLIM methodology made famous by William J. O’Neil in his bestselling book, How to Make Money in Stocks, for over two decades; he has also been working within the O’Neil companies since 2009. As a CMT charterholder, portfolio manager at O’Neil Global Advisors, weekly contributor on IBD’s must-listen weekly podcast Investing with IBD, and former Director for O’Neil’s excellent Market Smith web-based equity research product, Irusha brings a wealth of experience and perspective to this highly informative discussion.

Our conversation spans topics that range from staying focused on picking “game-changing stocks” to the importance of patience and discipline; from always staying humble, to how to manage the pesky mental challenge of constant portfolio drawdowns, and so much more.

As a life sciences student in Boston, Irusha was given the fateful advice to only get into medicine if he was 100% sure it was what he wanted. Certain that he wasn’t that certain, he decided to shift his focus to the stock market, where he truly found his passion – and we are grateful that he did.

To better understand the concepts covered and market commentary included in this episode, we recommend reviewing the supplemental resources available on the CMT Association website using this link: go.staging.cmtassociation.org/ftge11.

New MyCMT Portal Launches

We are excited to launch the new version of the MyCMT Portal! The new MyCMT portal is designed to be user-friendly, allowing you to more easily update your profile, renew your dues, and check event registrations. Head over to the MyCMT tab to view your new account experience, which includes an updated exam progress interface; volunteer information; submission links for the Journal of Technical Analysis, Dow Award, and this newsletter; and much, much more.

Take a few minutes this week to make sure your CMT Charterholder and exam information is correct and that your profile is up-to-date with your most current address, email and company.

Does something look wrong with your profile? Is it missing integral information like your membership status and/or renewal date? Or your CMT exam and charter information? Contact us at [email protected] and we will fix the issue as soon as possible.

Please note, if you are using a work laptop with strict security or firewall settings, particularly settings that restrict the ability to fill and enter online forms, you might have trouble using the portal. To best use the portal, please adjust your firewall settings and use a personal laptop.

Membership

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

• Viraj Vyas, CMT, CFTe, Technical & Derivatives Analyst – Institutional Equity at Ashika Group
• Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA, CMA, CFTe, CMT, FRM, Managing Director at Tachibana Securities
• Pawandeep Bhatia, Senior Research Analyst at Ambit Capital

CMT Updates

Don’t forget to schedule an appointment for your exam if you haven’t already done so! The closer we get to the start of the exam, the more likely it is that your first choice of your preferred test center, date and time will have reduced availability.

If you need assistance with scheduling your exam, please email [email protected].

Reviewing, finalizing, and communicating exam results may take up to eight weeks from the end of the testing period. CMT Level I and II results will be emailed to candidates by Prometric. CMT Level III results will arrive in an email directly from the CMT Association.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in October 2021.

• Brian Almeida
• Michael Edmonds
• Brian Griggs
• Sneha Kheskani
• Nicolas Liegeois
• Chandra Sharma
• Lawrence Sharpe